Ramy Youssef and Emma Stone in ‘Poor Things’
Yorgos Lanthimos
please pay attention: This forecast, compiled by Scott Feinberg, hollywood reporterExecutive editor of awards coverage, representing Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, No His personal preferences. He arrives at these estimates based on conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, the results of awards ceremonies that take place before the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
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perfect picture
forward runner
1. American fiction (Amazon/MGM)
2. oppenheimer (universal)
3. barbie (Warner Bros.)
4. poor things (searchlight)
5. flower moon killer (Apple/Paramount)
6. past life (A24)
7. Teacher (Netflix)
8. holdover (Center)
9. area of interest (A24)
10. may december (Netflix)
major threats
Eleven. rustin (Netflix)
12. we are all strangers (searchlight)
13. anatomy of fall (neon)
14. Nyad (Netflix)
fifteen. Original (neon)
16. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse (Sony)
the possibilities
17. ferrari (neon)
18. Air (Amazon/MGM)
19. saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Twenty. Priscilla (A24)
twenty-one. taste of things (IFC)
22. dumb money (Sony)
can’t call yet
purple colour (Warner Bros.)
iron claw (A24)
napoleon (Apple/Sony)
best director
forward runner
1.Christopher Nolan (oppenheimer,
2. Greta Gerwig (barbie) – podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (flower moon killer,
4.Jonathan Glazer (area of interest,
5. Chord Jefferson (American fiction,
major threats
6. Yorgos Lanthimos (poor things,
7.Bradley Cooper(Teacher,
8. Celine Song (past life,
9. Alexander Payne (holdover,
10. Todd Haynes (may december) – podcast
11. Ava DuVernay (Original,
the possibilities
12.Andrew Haigh (we are all strangers,
13. Justin Trite (anatomy of fall,
14. George C. Wolfe (rustin) – podcast
15. Michael Mann (ferrari,
16. Emerald Fennell (saltburn,
17. Sofia Coppola (Priscilla,
18. Hayao Miyazaki (boy and heron,
can’t call yet
Blitz Bazavule (purple colour,
sean durkiniron claw,
Ridley Scott (napoleon,
best Actor
forward runner
1.Bradley Cooper(Teacher,
2. Paul Giamatti (holdover,
3. Cillian Murphy (oppenheimer,
4. Jeffrey Wright (American fiction,
5. Colman Domingo (rustin,
major threats
6. Leonardo DiCaprio (flower moon killer,
7. Andrew Scott (we are all strangers,
8. Nicolas Cage (dream scenario) – podcast
9. Barry Keoghan (saltburn,
10. Christian Friedel (area of interest,
11. To You (past life,
the possibilities
12. Adam Driver (ferrari,
13. Gael García Bernal (cassandro,
14. Alden Ehrenreich (fair play,
15. Michael Fassbender (murderer,
16. Koji Yakusho (perfect day,
17. Benoît Magimel (taste of things,
can’t call yet
Zac Efroniron claw,
Joaquin Phoenix (napoleon,
best Actress
forward runner
1. Annette Bening (Nyad,
2.Emma Stone (poor things) – podcast
3. Margot Robbie (barbie) – podcast
4. Lily Gladstone (flower moon killer,
5. Carey Mulligan (Teacher) – podcast
major threats
6. Natalie Portman (may december) – podcast
7. Greta Lee (past life,
8. Sandra Huller (anatomy of fall,
9. Aunjanue Ellis-TaylorOriginal) – podcast
10. Helen Mirren (golda) – podcast
11. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla,
the possibilities
12. Eve Hewson (flora and son,
13. Leonie Benes (teacher’s lounge,
14. Phoebe Dynevor (fair play,
15. Trace Lysette (Monica,
16. Thomasin McKenzie (eileen,
17. Jodie Comer (bike rider) – podcast
can’t call yet
Fantasia Barrino (purple colour,
Best Supporting Actor
forward runner
1. Robert Downey Jr.oppenheimer,
2. Ryan Gosling (barbie,
3. Mark Ruffalo (poor things,
4. Charles Melton (may december,
5. Sterling K. brown (American fiction) – podcast
major threats
6. Robert De Niro (flower moon killer) – podcast
7. Jesse Plemons (flower moon killer) – podcast
8. Willem Dafoe (poor things) – podcast
9. John Magaro (past life,
10. Chris Messina (Air,
the possibilities
11. Glenn Howerton (Blackberry,
12. Dominic Cessa (holdover,
13. Jacob Elordi (Priscilla,
14. Matt Damon (oppenheimer,
15.Eddie Marsan (fair play,
can’t call yet
colman domingo(purple colour,
corey hawkinspurple colour) – podcast
Tahar Rahim (napoleon,
jeremy alan whiteiron claw,
best Supporting Actress
forward runner
1. Jodie Foster (Nyad) – podcast
2. Da’Vine Joey Randolph (holdover,
3. Julianne Moore (may december,
4. Sandra Huller (area of interest,
5. Rosamund Pike (saltburn) – podcast
major threats
6. Penelope Cruz (ferrari) – podcast
7. Emily Blunt (oppenheimer,
8. Issa Rae (American fiction) – podcast
9. Erica Alexander (American fiction,
10. Claire Foy (we are all strangers) – podcast
11. America Ferrera (barbie,
the possibilities
12. Viola Davis (Air,
13. Tracee Ellis Ross (American fiction) – podcast
14. Leslie Uggams (American fiction,
15. Juliette Binoche (taste of things,
16. Anne Hathaway (eileen,
17. Patricia Clarkson (Monica) – podcast
can’t call yet
halle baileypurple colour,
Danielle Brooks (purple colour,
His (purple colour) – podcast
Taraji P. Henson (purple colour) – podcast
Lily James (iron claw) – podcast
vanessa kirbynapoleon,
Maura Tierney (iron claw,
Best Adapted Screenplay
forward runner
1. American fiction (Cord Jefferson)
2. oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
3. poor things (Tony McNamara)
4. flower moon killer (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese)
5. area of interest (Jonathan Glazer)
major threats
6. we are all strangers (Andrew Haigh)
7. Original (Ava DuVernay)
8. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
9. dumb money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Shuker Blum)
10. Nyad (Julia Cox)
the possibilities
Eleven. ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
12. Are you there God? It’s me, Margaret (Kelly Framon Craig)
13. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
14. eileen (Luke Goebel)
can’t call yet
purple colour (Marcus Gardley)
Best Original Screenplay
forward runner
1. barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) – Podcast (Gerwig)
2. past life (Celine song)
3. holdover (David Hemingson)
4. Teacher (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
5. teacher’s lounge (Ilker Catak and Johannes Duncker)
major threats
6. anatomy of fall (Arthur Harari and Justin Triott)
7. may december (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanic)
8. saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
9. fair play (Chloe Domont)
10. dream scenario (Christopher Borgli)
the possibilities
Eleven. rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breese)
12. Air (Alex Convery)
13. cassandro (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) – Podcast (Williams)
14. flora and son (John Carney)
fifteen. asteroid city (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)
can’t call yet
iron claw (Sean Durkin)
napoleon (David Scarpa)
Best International Feature
forward runner
1. area of interest (United Kingdom)
2. taste of things (France)
3. teacher’s lounge (Germany)
4. perfect day (Japan)
5. 20 days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
can’t call yet
Io Capitano (Italy)
Devbhoomi (Iceland)
maybe (Australia)
ice society (Spain)
fallen leaves (Finland)
lessons from bloga (Bulgaria)
four daughters (Tunisia)
about hay (turkey)
thunder (Switzerland)
mother of all lies (Morocco)
Best Documentary Feature
forward runner
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Still: A Michael J. fox movie (Apple)—Podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. city of kokomo (Magnolia)
4. beyond utopia (side of the road)
5. 20 days in Mariupol (PBS)
rest of shortlist
6. deepest breath (Netflix)
7. eternal memory (MTV)
8. stamped from the beginning (Netflix) – Podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
9. disappearance of shere hit (IFC)
10. Pigeon Tunnel (manzana)
Eleven. Target (Nat Geo)
12. Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
13. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
14. anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
fifteen. everyone (Center)
the possibilities
16. occupied city (A24)
17. to kill a tiger (Still seeking US distribution)
18. king coal (Still seeking US distribution)
19. union (Magnolia)
Twenty. Joan Baez: I’m a Noise (Magnolia)
can’t call yet
32 sounds (Abramorama)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
a kind detective (Magnolia)
cup 71 (Still seeking US distribution)
neglectful (Still seeking US distribution)
four daughters (Kino Lorber)
Going to Mars: Nikki Giovanni’s Story (HBO)
hollywoodgate (Still seeking US distribution)
judy bloom forever (Amazon)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I’m everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
mother of all lies (Still seeking US distribution)
Orlando, my political biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
good hearted (Abramorama)
What happened to the blood, sweat and tears? (Abramorama)
while we watched (PBS)
your fat friend (Still seeking delivery)
Best Animated Feature
forward runner
1. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. primary (Pixar) – Podcast (Pete Docter)
3. boy and heron (GKIDS)
4. they shot the pianist (Sony Classics)
5. pneumonia (Netflix)
major threats
6. Desire (disney)
7. super mario bros movie (lights)
8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (most important)
can’t call yet
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibertia (GKIDS)
first slam dunk (GKIDS)
leo (Netflix)
migration (lights)
robot dreams (neon)
speed breaker (IFC)
Suzume (toho)
trolls band together (DreamWorks)