Six keys to Trump’s decisive victory in the South Carolina Republican primaries usa elections

Donald Trump scored another landslide victory this Saturday en route to the Republican nomination, which could be secured 10 days from now when 15 states across the country hold the big Super Tuesday vote. The former president was facing Nikki Haley in South Carolina, who was not helped much by being born in the state that twice elected him as governor. A position he held between 2011 and 2017, with notable popularity ratings.

Haley lost by 20 points, despite a campaign in which he spared no effort or money. However, she doesn’t plan on giving up, and is clinging to the 40% of people who supported her, which is far more than polls had predicted. His argument is the same as that used against Trump in a race launched by 14 candidates: The candidate sells himself as a necessary alternative to Republicans and independents who fear a second round for the former president, A candidate who faces 91 alleged offenses in four separate criminal proceedings.

Despite this, no one seems capable of stopping Trump’s advance in 2024. A year in which, if nothing changes dramatically, the United States is headed for a repeat of the duel for the White House that Joe Biden faced in 2020. Presidential elections will be held on 5 November.

1. Trump won without losing much hair…

Last Friday, Trump visited the quiet town of Rock Hill to give one of his hard-to-explain rallies, in which thousands of his loyalists responded to his disjointed words and a tide of arguments, lies and half-truths. Encouraged those who worship him. This was one of his few efforts as a messiah in South Carolina. And that was the state in which possibly His opponent may appear stronger. It didn’t matter: he won with 60% of the vote without causing much damage to the bank. The former President believes that he does not need to work hard. The fact that lately he spends half his time sitting in the dock also plays a role. Since his emergence in the Republican Party in 2015, a formation that eventually molded to his wishes, he has shown that, against all odds, he has a huge influence on at least 30% of the electorate. It remains to be seen whether this unprecedented method of campaigning will work when the fight is not in front of a dedicated public, and Democrats and independents also have something to say. At the moment, the latest surveys, eight months before the presidential elections, give him a slight lead over Biden, but it is not fair to give too much importance.

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2. …and victory in all areas

Like a tennis player who is good at all areas of the game, Trump appeared at ease in settings as different as the Iowa caucuses (a close vote, in a white and deeply religious Republican state that prides itself on the unpredictableness of his behavior). Have achieved four consecutive wins from; The most temperate of the New Hampshire primaries to date and a caucus/primary pairing with overtones of the farce recently held in Nevada. South Carolina was something else. It celebrates its primaries, “the first in the South”, with two points in its favor: they almost never fail (since 1980, they have been true for all Republican candidates except on one occasion) and it A place, although entirely Republican, more diverse than other early dates of the campaign. Therefore it is generally considered a more reliable indicator of which direction the results of a general election may go.

3. But Haley doesn’t throw in the towel

He already warned with some examples in a press call last Tuesday: Haley doesn’t plan to “go anywhere.” She said this in anticipation of a defeat in her home state, where she went from city to city holding rallies with small groups of voters, praising the role she played when she was governor and Had come together due to fear of coming again. Trump’s. On Saturday, he once again reminded that he will not retire until at least Super Tuesday. His critics ask him to stop that effort to save money and time. The most extreme Trumpism has a conspiracy theory to explain why it wants to continue: According to it, its donors, who have not yet lost patience, are paying to divide the Republican Party and ensure that That Biden wins in November. More serious analysts believe that behind his decision is a commitment to take advantage of the fact that national headlines are pointing towards him establishing himself as an alternative in the 2028 elections. At the same time, Haley wants to demonstrate that another Republican Party, more complete and moderate, is possible.

Haley justified herself Saturday by saying she is “a woman of her word.” “When the majority of Americans don’t agree with Trump or Biden, I’m not going to give up,” he warned. An option on the ballot. Those who are ahead in the primary elections.

4. Support of independents: 40% who said no to Trump

In an exemplary speech given in Charleston on election night, Haley also said after learning of her defeat: “I know 40% is not 50%.” He paused to stifle a relieved laugh from his supporters and continued: “But I also know that 40% is not a small group of people.” In other words, Haley not only sees herself as the only possible alternative to Trump, but also as the only one of the two who will be able to defeat Biden in November, when voters must choose, if not by him. There are differences between a president with the lowest level of popularity in history and the man who orchestrated the move to overthrow the legitimate results of the election in 2020, leading to the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. His speech, which sometimes sounded like that of a third-party candidate, is that this 40% support, which came primarily from independent votes in the open primaries, is a demonstration of the problems that await Republicans if They choose the Trump option.

5. Dance of the candidates for the post of Vice President

As the path to Trump’s imminent appointment is being paved, speculation has intensified over who could be his choice to run with him as his vice presidential nominee on the November ballot. This weekend, it was South Carolina’s African-American senator Tim Scott’s turn to present his credentials at home. Scott was one of 14 Republicans vying for the nomination, and since he left the race, during which Trump devoted the usual battery of insults and insults to his opponents, the senator has turned into a toad, swallowing them all. One of the biggest promoters of the idea of ​​returning the former president to the White House. In his favor is the perceived impact his selection could have on the African-American voters who propelled Biden to victory in 2020, and who, according to polls, are now disappointed with the results of his performance.

Other possible names for the position include JD Vance, Ohio senator and best-selling author (Hillbilly: A Rural Elegy), South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, and Congresswoman Elise Stefanik. The trio secretly attended the Conservative Action Political Conference (CPAC), held each year near Washington, this Friday. What used to be a meeting of ideas about the future of the Republican Party has recently become a meeting at the pinnacle of Trumpism at its most uncritical.

6. What’s going to happen now

The next appointment is this coming Tuesday in Michigan, where, as announced Saturday night, Haley has already left to campaign. Trump, for his part, promised another landslide victory, he said, riding on “the support of the unions,” a force that must be counted on in that decisive situation, but which has already publicly chosen Biden. . Interest in that election will turn momentarily to the President; It will be interesting to see to what extent his support for Israel in the Gaza war affects him in the place with the largest Arab community in the country, which gave him a good portion of his votes (and the presidency) in 2020.

A week later comes Super Tuesday. On March 5, primaries are held across the country: 15 states decide 874 of the 2,429 Republican delegates. To receive the designation, Trump needs 1,215 delegates, barring his opponent’s withdrawal: So far, he has added 117 to Haley’s 17. This is also the date that typically settles the composition of both parties’ ballots. Haley hasn’t ruled out continuing after that, but for now his bets are focused on how many of those places, or, at least, with what percentage, will support him. After that, the rest of the primaries continue, now almost devoid of all emotion, as the calendar moves toward the Republican campaign’s next big date. It is scheduled for mid-July, when the party convention will be held in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), at which delegates from all over the country will gather to bless their chosen one for the White House.

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