The price and position of the large funds will be key to the success of BBVA’s takeover bid for Sabadell.

Analysts believe the key factor that will determine the success or failure of BBVA’s takeover bid for Banco Sabadell will be the final price offered. stock market evolution two organizations, the position of the funds and decisions that regulators accept. Recorded history shows that Hostile takeover proposals which bore fruit, went through improvement conditionsinitials.

Offer

In fact, after Sabadell’s board of directors rejected BBVA’s proposal, analysts agreed that the way unblock the situation was, exactly, improve He price including Part monetary reward. After the announcement of the takeover offer, analysts Rent4 They indicated that with the proposed share exchange (action BBVA from reissue For each 4.83 titles from Sabadell), the offer turned out to be unattractive. “We believe the proposed premium will need to be increased to allow the operation to continue,” analysts said in a similar vein. Bank March.

Diego Morinfrom ISIS also expressed doubt about the success of the operation, since the bonus raiseddecreased with the BBVA stock market falling and rising Sabadell. From April 29, the day before Initial offeractions Basque bank fell by almost 11%, while the shares of the Catalan company were overvalued by almost 8%.

In this sense, the American manager Federated Hermes emphasized that the success of the operation will depend “on evolution actions BBVA“, although he also remembered that the names Sabadell “not far from the highs last ten years”

BBVA shares jumped 1.15% on Friday and closed in 9.71 euro (10.9 euro, April 29), and the names Sabadell they climbed up 0.73% and amounted to 1.87 euros (1737EuroHe 29April). With a rebound of two values ​​in the last session a week, the exchange offered by BBVA now represents a premium of 7.5%. The offer represented a premium of thirty% at closing prices of two values April 29, and from fifty% based on a weighted average for the last three months.

banks

The stock market performance of the two banks has been a roller coaster this week. On Tuesday, having learned on Monday Abandonment of Sabadell the Catalan company has reduced the merger proposal 0.45%Meanwhile he BBVA grew by 3.61%. On Wednesday, following the publication of a letter sent by BBVA, which stated that the company did not have the opportunity to improve the offer, Sabadell refused one 4.33% while shares of the company chaired by Carlos Torres rose 0.93%. On Thursday, after announcing the takeover bid, BBVA lost 6.71% And Sabadell raised 3.17%.

Analysts Bank March These days they have influenced another factor – the position of investment funds. “The key may revolve around the position of large funds,” since “even 71 of them have simultaneous participation in both organizations,” in particular, 31% of the capital of BBVA and 18.4% of the capital of Banco Sabadell.” they explained.

XTB’s Javier Cabrera focused on regulatory approvals. The operation must be approved by the National Commission for Stock market (CNMV), the National Commission for Markets and Competition (CNMC), the Bank of Spain, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the UK authorities, since Sabadell has a bank in the UK (TSB).

“The problems are greater market concentration and regulatory risk operations,” he explained. Cabrera. “The banking sector is already highly oligopolized: the share of the credit market between the three countries is about 56%. first entities” According to his calculations, if the operation is successful “among first three For legal entities, the quota will reach 64%, which may mean a deterioration in the conditions offered to clients and a significant reduction in competition.”

In any case, there will be a process”pretty long“: “We won’t know if there will be an offer BBVA It will be successful in about eight months.”