Aadhaar law: Low numbers in Senate with increasingly open-ended debate | Government acknowledges close vote and threat of losing article

The coin is in the air. Neither the ruling party and its allies have guaranteed votes in the Senate to approve a short version of the Bases Law and its fiscal package, nor will the Unión por la Patria be able to add allies to reject the two projects.

The most optimistic version among liberal negotiators, which indicated they had enough on hand for general approval but questioned the fate of some articles, was weakened by corruption scandals and complaints and the latest statements by Xavier Miley who said he liked his status to “destroy the state from within”. Chief of Staff Guillermo Francos himself publicly admitted that despite his optimism he was not sure about the vote in the upper house.

In this context, ten governors of Together for Change came to the aid of the government yesterday with a document of “strong support for the ratification and approval” of the laws and twisted its arm, looking to rally its own troops. The strategy to provide a parliamentary victory to the rebels and to Rosada fell apart when the radicals themselves claimed that the document was false.

Meanwhile, the executive employs a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, they try to get votes, water down changes and ensure that none get the two-thirds vote, under the threat of withdrawing the law from Congress. And in parallel, he is working to confirm half-approvals in the House of Deputies and discard the amendments negotiated with senators and governors.

Adjusted numbers

With very good numbers, the chances of a tie started flying. In this hypothetical case, the LLA has an advantage: Miley will travel to the G7 on Wednesday night and Vice President Victoria Villarruel will be in charge of the executive, the liberal of San Luis Bartolomé Abdalá will preside over the session as provisional president of the legislative body and there is the option of a double vote to break a tie in favor of the government. Still, with the approval of the changes in the text coming from the deputies, the last word will once again depend on the lower house: whether it accepts the amendments or insists on its original text with half approval.

In that context, the ruling party’s concern will be particularly about the vote. There are several points in which the distribution of the will is very strict: from Delegated powers for incentive arrangements for large investments (Rigi), are going through a phase of privatization – where their Argentine Airlines And this Match What is being most opposed is the restoration of profits, among other things.

Rule of Loustau

The ruling party is also keeping an eye on the opinion expressed by him Martin Loustauwhich does not contemplate delegated powers and has many changes from the original project. And although they believe that the proposal will not succeed, the LLA fears that, on the other hand, it could muster the will to falter some articles. Specifically, if the UXP advances with the aim of trying to reach the two-thirds of the votes (48 senators) and thus prevent deputies from insisting on a half-approval since the ruling party and allies could not achieve that special majority in the lower house.

However, not all UxP Count on that legislative strategy. Some believe that if it is difficult to get 37 votes to reject laws (it has its own 33 senators), it will be more difficult to reach two-thirds to support some articles with amendments. Anyway, we will have to see how the debate progresses and how the forces in the room adjust.

Seeing the threat that Loustau’s move posed to the government, radical governors stepped in to override it. He dusted off the JXC logo and managed to bring together elected leaders under the seal of the Macrista alliance to broadcast A document aligned with the Casa Rosada (See separate). The text targets not only Lousteau, but is also a warning to Maximiliano Abad, senator and president of the Buenos Aires UCR, who has followed in the UCR chief’s footsteps against the Mega DNU.

Another front for the libertarians are Santa Cruz senators José María Carambia and Natalia Gaidano, who do not respond unconditionally Claudio Vidal. Together with Abad, they are the three senators who would threaten the majority that La Rosada had hoped to achieve. And Lucila Crexel from Neuquén joined the list, as Governor Rolando Figueroa called off personal negotiations for her appointment as ambassador to UNESCO in Paris in exchange for her favorable vote.

Discussion

at the meeting of Parliamentary Affairs He Villarruel At a meeting convened earlier yesterday, the rules for the debate, which will begin at 10 am on Wednesday, were agreed upon, including the number of speakers and the time for each block. The UXP, with the support of other benches, managed to impose that Aadhaar and the fiscal package be discussed separately.

If the debate on the first laws progresses, the possibility of moving to an intermediate room would open up, although that possibility was not contemplated in the labor agreement, it will depend on what happens in the room. Meanwhile, there is growing pressure from some pro-dialogue sectors to postpone the debate on the fiscal package until the government guarantees that it will respect the amendments introduced to the project by the Senate.