Starship has nine months to complete NASA’s lunar contract. Despite everything, SpaceX believes it is possible

SpaceX’s giant Starship is being developed amidst intense duality. On the one hand, it needs to start launching Starlink satellites to finance Elon Musk’s plans to reach Mars. On the other hand, its most important contract is its commitment to NASA to travel to the moon.

The ambitious mission of Starship HLS. NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) contract calls for the Starship spacecraft to carry astronauts from the Orion capsule in lunar orbit to the lunar surface at the moon’s south pole by September 2026.

If the mission, called Artemis III, is successful, it will be the first time a man has landed on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972, as well as the first time a woman has ever walked on the Moon. The goals that China, another participant in the new space race, sets for itself by 2030.

When no one trusted. Neither NASA’s Orion spacecraft, whose heat shield caused problems in unmanned tests, nor the spacesuits developed by Axiom Space for future astronauts are ready yet, but no one doubts they will be ready in 2026.

Just a few days ago, what no one thought was possible (not even NASA, which was already independently exploring alternatives to Artemis III) was that the starship would be ready to carry astronauts to the Moon within two years. However, the 2026 moon landing is again in doubt.

SpaceX is nine months old. The first milestone Starship must meet to remain on the Artemis III roadmap, according to the agreement with NASA, is a test to transfer cryogenic fuel between spacecraft by early 2025.

Starship is a rocket that uses liquid methane as fuel and liquid oxygen as an oxidizer, fuel that must be stored at cryogenic temperatures to maintain its liquid state.

Starship has already demonstrated that it can transfer liquid oxygen between its internal tanks during flight, but NASA’s commitment is to launch two ships into Earth orbit, dock them in flight, and transfer oxygen from one to the other within nine months.

Elon Musk: “I think we will achieve this.” Contrary to expectations, Elon Musk said that Starship development has accelerated and that he believes SpaceX will be able to complete the test on time, that is, by the first quarter of 2025.

This is a beamingly optimistic Musk, a stark contrast to the pessimistic Musk ahead of Starship’s fourth test flight. Three months ago, SpaceX CEO tweeted: “The starship could reach the Moon in less than five years.”

Reasons for optimism. While Starship’s third test flight demonstrated the ability to carry fuel inside a rocket, the latest test flight demonstrated the ability to land a 20-story skyscraper. SpaceX will need one super-heavy launch vehicle to launch several (possibly dozens) of Starships into orbit for a lunar mission.

Most of these starships will be tankers, responsible for transferring fuel to the tanker. This tank will eventually be filled by the HLS spacecraft that will travel to the Moon. This is why it is critical for SpaceX to demonstrate the orbital transfer maneuver before proceeding with the unmanned lunar landing and Artemis III mission.

Another reason for optimism is that the pace of Starship’s launch is about to accelerate, at least as far as flight licenses are concerned. Changes at the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will allow SpaceX to quickly return to flight, provided there are no unexpected test failures that require an investigation. Technically, the fifth flight could happen as soon as Booster 12 and Starship 30 are ready.

Image | SpaceX

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