It will be a lot to earn half of what you made in the first semester.

As the second half of the year begins, it’s time to review what happened in the first half and plan what expectations the rest of the year offers. I think that at the beginning of the year, every investor should create a budget with realistic goals that he expects from his portfolio, so that in times like these, when we start in the middle of the year, we can analyze whether we are above or below the route plan .

Let’s consider the case of a mixed portfolio (50% stock market/50% debt). In my case, I estimated the expected return for 2024 at 5.5%. To achieve this return, the equation is that the stock market must offer 8% yield and a fixed income portion of 3%.

I suppose there is some debate to be had on the profitability side of the equation, but what we are going to agree on is that, seeing the results that close out the first half of the year, at best it might be strive to earn half of what you have achieved so far in the second semester.

Bogle’s portfolio, built on a philosophy of half high risk, half low risk, should generate returns of about 5% over the course of a year. From Amarategui’s point of view, this would almost lead us to believe that we must defend what we have conquered and move into winter quarters. But such a message would violate investment basis: You should always take a strategic position in the market and make small tactical adjustments only when the market allows it.

I think it would be good, and we would sign, to achieve a profitability of 2%/3% this semester, taking into account the decision of French President Macron to call early parliamentary elections. His decision has widened bond spreads not only in France but across the eurozone periphery, and has undermined business confidence. Although Marine Le Pen rejects FrexitThe real concern is the lack of cost control and the impact this could have on the expected continuity of EU rate cuts. The same will happen if you look at the Federal Reserve’s election calendar, especially if Biden continues to dilute himself like a sugar cube ahead of Trump, with whom inflationary specters linger due to a combination of restrictive immigration policies and looser fiscal policies and trade tariffs.

No one has yet lowered the flag on bonds that it’s time to increase duration, and in the stock market we remain the same as at the beginning of the year. Wall Street is alarmingly expensive, but with growth benefits of technology that justify the multiples paid. In Europe, with more attractive valuations but greater political and regulatory uncertainty.