Control, intimidation and “Operation Trailer”: the 3 historical traps that Chavismo applies in elections and the fear of the fourth

Venezuela protests The presidential election on July 28 will face a major challenge: uniting voters who have been demoralized for years Persecution, Threat, Insult, Arbitrary arrests, Interior Partitions And Violent fights that saved dozens of people dead And Injured. All this is to defeat the Chavista dictatorship led by Nicolás Maduro by votes today.

This task appears factually possible. All opinion studies so far reveal the wide possibilities available to the opposition candidate, Edmundo González UrrutiaAbout the officer Nicolás Maduro. This is undoubtedly the result of the socialist decline that has been going on for more than two decades Venezuela There is internal crisis in all its regions, the economy and high level of violence are the main points of it ice floe,

Knowing that the numbers work against him Chavismo It has not hesitated from the very beginning of the process to apply all its known obstacles and strategies to hinder the healthy development of the elections. Their greatest achievement thus far was to oust the opposition leader from the electoral race, but not from the political race. Maria Corina MachadoWho had to surrender his candidacy to González Urrutia after being disqualified by the regime.

As expected, obstacles continue to crop up along the way and it can be anticipated that on election day itself the Maduro regime will resort to its familiar tactics in a desperate attempt to cling on to power.

In conversation with infobae, Alejandro HernandezPolitical analyst and director Great VillageWarns what are the three main traps that Chavismo can fall into to increase its numbers in the elections on July 28th.

Reviewing the historical behavior of the Venezuelan regime in past elections social control This last day will be an important part of your game. Hernandez explained that, through social events and databases, such as local supply and production committee (CLAP), the regime will control the calling of voters, their transportation to the polls, and their accompaniment by intimidating them.

“What does Chavismo do? With its structures Social helpsof Database that they have ClapThey start pulling people out of their homes and taking them to vote and going with them to vote, trying to intimidate them by telling them they’ll find out who they’re voting for,” Hernandez said.

This strategy is used mainly in popular areas where Chavismo has already gained Control over people This is implemented through a profit and fear campaign with the idea that all aid will end.

According to the political analyst, the second trap involves Rigging at voting centers. Especially in centers with one or two tables, in rural areas and in mission bases controlled by Chavismo, where it is common for opposition votes to be ignored.

This strategy is based on a campaign of fear and intimidation Opposition election witnessesWho are forced to abandon their work at all costs and leave the running of the center in the hands of Chavista witnesses and polling station members.

“This is especially done in popular areas or in areas that, all of a sudden, can become somewhat hostile. People intimidate opposition witnesses so that they are not in charge of the votes. And then, well, when they manage to get them out of there, they start using the little machine,” said Hernández in relation to the method of manipulation applied to electoral machines. “That is why there are tables where inexplicably the opposition can lose by 99 votes against 1, while it is understood that this is not a correlation of strength, even in the most Chavista place in the country,” he added.

Another historical strategy used by Chavismo on the date of elections is the so-called “Towing operation”: At the end of the day, the ruling party organizes public employees and other sectors dependent on the state to vote and increase the margin.

“At the end of the day, five or six o’clock in the afternoon. They have more or less a picture of how the election will end, but if they need to Expand the resultThen they start to see how far away the last person who is somehow connected to them is,” Hernández explained.

In these operations, Public employees They are threatened with losing their jobs if they do not vote for the ruling party, creating an atmosphere of fear and pressure.

However, experts who have been part of the Venezuelan opposition’s political campaigns in the past mention that, Current economic situationMany citizens are no longer afraid of losing privileges they consider insufficient, such as low-paying jobs or CLAP exchanges.

“Now people want their families to come back. People want a real opportunity to earn a living without being dependent on anyone,” he says.

Power cuts This has become common in Venezuela as the economic and financial crisis worsens. Venezuelan analysts believe that, if the regime anticipates defeat despite all its moves, it may resort to blackouts in large areas, making it difficult for voters to reach polling stations and overwhelm the system (Venezuela has electronic voting by computer) and then investigate.

As background, it is worth remembering what happened in Bolivia In the 2019 presidential election, an alleged failure caused the results transmission system to shut down when the results were being counted, leading to a second round of counting between Evo Morales and Carlos Mesa, and when the count resumed 12 hours later, Morales had the minimal advantage needed to win the first round. Allegations of fraud and street protests erupted throughout the country.

As part of the solution, Hernández suggested that the opposition strengthen the so-called“The 600K Plan”A strategy was devised for Protect your votes To do so, it is necessary to have well-organized and prepared witnesses in these key centers to prevent Chavismo from manipulating the results, ensuring a more accurate representation of the anti-Chavista vote.

“The opposition will in any case have to structure what they themselves call the 600K plan, which was a plan to take care of the vote in which all these options that we are mentioning were contemplated and they will undoubtedly have to be articulated very efficiently on that day,” Hernández highlighted.

by the veto of National Electoral Council till Observation Mission of European UnionCitizen participation will play a vital role in monitoring the electoral process.

On this July 28th, only a group of technicians United Nations and the supervisor of The Carter Center They will be present alongside a handful of international observers invited by Chavismo. Therefore, civil society must remain vigilant and proactive, defending its vote and documenting any irregularities that may arise.

So far, Democratic Unitary Forum The (PUD) confirmed that it has witnesses for over 98% of polling stations for the election, so the number is expected to be higher for the election date.