The Ibex 35 index reached 11,200, up 0.37%, making Germany’s Dax the most optimistic European stock market of the year.
While all eyes were on Jackson Hole, where the big annual meeting of central bankers was already underway, the Ibex 35 gained momentum on Thursday and was named the most bullish stock market in Europe in 2024. The benchmark Spanish stock market index was up 0.40% on Thursday’s session to close at 11,156.30 points. It was less than half a point away from erasing the entire bearish gap that opened earlier this month when stock markets collapsed on fears of an imminent US recession (and it did erase it during the session). The comeback has left the Ibex index up 10.44%, ahead, albeit just barely, of the German Dax, which has fared better than it. The German selective is now up slightly less than the Spanish one for the year, at 10.4%.
This is the Ibex 35 recovery happening in the midst of unprecedented stock market highs what they have achieved This same week, two of his giants: Iberdrola and Inditex. The electricity company signed them on Monday and continued to check them (yesterday, the closing price was 48.85 euros), and the textile giant signed them on Tuesday, also becoming the first Spanish company to reach a capitalization of 150 billion euros. No company has contributed as much to the Ibex 35 index in recent weeks as Inditex: thanks to the index’s rise from the minimum reached on August 5, the Galician group has added almost 200 points to Ibex. Iberdrola, for its part, has contributed another 36 whole numbers, according to Bloomberg. Eight European companies have reached annual highs, and more than a dozen are about to do so.
Among the companies that have increased the Spanish index the most in recent sessions, we also find the banks that suffered the most when the panic broke out. Since last day 5, Santander contributes almost 66 points to the index.BBVA another 54 and CaixaBank 50.
If we look at the main stock indices of the Old Continent, Ibex and Dax are followed in annual revaluation by the Italian Ftse Mib, up 9.8%; the British Ftse 100, up 7.1%; and the French CAC, which this Thursday was set to turn positive again in 2024 (it is still up a timid 0.2%). The EuroStoxx 50 index, for its part, has risen by 8%. These revaluations are far from those experienced by the major Wall Street indices: on the other side of the Atlantic, the S&P 500 has already accumulated a 17% increase this year, and the Dow Jones by 8%.
Technical situation Ibex
On Monday, the Ibex index managed to recover 11,000 points, a psychological level it had not reached all month. This barrier “is also important from a technical point of view,” explains Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and adviser to the Ecotrader portal. award investment strategies elEconomista.es. Its improvement suggests that we will not enjoy what Cabrero calls a Christmas present, “as would have been the case with the Ibex 35 index falling to a yearly low of around 9800/9850 points.” It is at these levels that the expert advocated putting the “second leg” on Capricorn, “after having recommended putting the first one on the retreat to the 10300-10500 area.” Cabrero adds that “if a few days ago I insisted that they should not think about selling, now I suggest that sooner or later the joy we are experiencing should be isolated,” and “that is when the Spanish stock market will have to grow.” not now, in the midst of a buying spree,” the expert warns.
From the current level, the market believes that Ibex 35 is set to rise 14.8% over the next 12 months.According to Bloomberg, the potential is very similar to that of the Dax. The EuroStoxx 50, in turn, is estimated to have an upward trend of close to 16%, like the Cac.
A week marked by central banks
This surprise The Spanish index comes as we speak in a week in which the news is set by central banks, with the Jackson Hole symposium in the spotlight and the minutes of the latest meetings of both the Federal Reserve and the ECB. The first showed that the decision on the first rate cut in September in the US has already been taken, which sheds more clarity on what the path of the reduction will be. The second, published at midday this Thursday, warns that the Governing Council is leaving the door open for a rate cut in September, but without any pre-commitment. According to analysts at ING. “Recall that at the July meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde was more cautious about the central bank’s next steps and avoided giving any further instructions on monetary policy. The minutes of the meeting just published and the published data reflect exactly this: the ECB has become more cautious about the growth and inflation outlook and wants to keep all options open for the September meeting,” they note.
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