Dollar CCL Jumps 50% in 3 Weeks to Close Above $1300 for First Time: Does It Have a Ceiling?

AdminJanuary 20, 2024

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Dollar CCL Jumps 50% in 3 Weeks to Close Above 00 for First Time: Does It Have a Ceiling?

He Dollar Cashed With Liquidation (CCL) has once again shown signs of having no ceiling, and it seems like its next stop will inevitably be dollar cards. The price of CCL increased by 50% in just three weeks. and this Friday, January 19th closed above $1,300 for the first time. Meanwhile, MEP dollar too kept his bullish streak and bested Blue, which lost for the first time on six wheels. Indeed, the currency gap is already at a level that is beginning to cause concern: almost 60%.

increase in financial exchange rates They came after a disappointing fourth Bonus for Importers (BOPREAL) tender, although they were already showing strong upward pressure throughout the rest of the week and into early 2024, given negative real rates, limited trailing peg (controlled appreciation of the official exchange rate) only 2% and a growing decline in the demand for money. Added to these factors difficult start for international markets given the rise in US Treasuries.

Within this framework CCL dollar On the day, the price rose $24.96 (+2%) to $1,306.16, the nominal closing high. Thus, gap of this exchange rate the official one was in 59.4%. Meanwhile, The European dollar rose by $24.13 (+2%) to $1,251.67.. Thus spreading at the official exchange rate it was in 52.7%.

In weekly balance CCL rose by $168.96 (+14.9%), although since the December 27 low ($870) he has already accumulated a 50% advance, up more than $435.

From my side, MVP over the past seven days has increased by $155.28 (+14.2%) And from the lowest value over the past three weeks, it has already increased by $319.08 (+34.2%).

When we evaluate CCL levels, it should be noted that the recent surge was only more acute in very specific situations: in November 2021, when then Economy Minister Martin Guzman threatened to forget about the financial obligations assumed as part of the debt restructuring; in July 2022, the post-peso debt collapse, which left the Ministry of Economy virtually vacant for a month: and in the run-up to the 2023 presidential elections. The current level is 6% higher than the worst moment of exit from convertibility. assessment from Consultatio.

Among the factors that put pressure on the CCL dollar that day were bonds designed by the government to try to solve the problem of debt to importers, given that This week he returned to the path of disappointment. The Central Bank (BCRA) was barely able to place $340 million, and total demand for Series 1 is not even a third of the forecast quota for the entire month. The monetary authority placed this instrument in the amount of US$1.644 million. This figure represents 32.87% of the US$5,000 million that was set as the quota.

“With BOPREAL’s Series I award below the previous week’s level, the round began with the recipient’s CCL closing at $1,300, above BOPREAL’s implicit CCL effective today at $64.75.“, they described from MegaQM.

Economist Gustavo Behr believed that “Despite parliamentary negotiations, the gap remains persistent, which is how the recent restructuring goes hand in hand with greater dollarization, given that it continues to be confronted by very negative real rates, a slowly creeping peg of just 2%, and an imminent “fall” in demand for money, so improving expectations is critical as a bridge to harvest.”

“The export dollar, which combines the calculation of 80% official (market) and 20% “CCL”, from which 15% withholding is deducted, is $771. Imported dollar, which is official plus COUNTRY tax of 17.5. %, to which cataract taxes are added, reaches $1250. The gap is great”– summed up analyst Salvador Di Stefano.

For the trader Esteban Montewho expected such a strong recovery of the dollar in the stock market, “CCL could approach or comfortably track the card dollar rate, which is $1,342.80 today.” “The latter would be the most logical” – he remarked to Ambito.

The futures market, for its part, saw a volatile wheel in which the dollar began trading higher for most of the day, although it ultimately closed lower starting in March and slightly higher in February. “If the crawl remains at 2%, then there is still room to fall in the first contract (February 2024). One question is to see how the rate develops from February to March. At this point, the price represents an acceleration crawl. binding No includes discrete adjustments”, enhanced by MegaQM.

“The market today is largely discounting the fact that the trailing peg will remain in place until the end of February.” said Javier Casabal, bond strategist at Adcap Grupo Financiero. “Initially, such an increase in the exchange rate by 118% (a devaluation of 54% according to Miley’s assumption) allowed the Central Bank to form the largest positive series since August-October 2023 and buy almost $5 billion,” he said. he noted.

As for the factors that could stop the upward momentum of the CCL dollar, Consultatio listed at least three: improve BOPREAL conditions; raise interest rates and; clarify uncertainty regarding how the stock-exchange merger is expected to emerge.

How much was the official dollar today, Friday, January 19?

He wholesale dollar negotiations were held $819.70 per unit, that is 50 cents higher closing on Thursday.

The Central Bank acquired US$116 million on the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC). Thus, During the week, the monetary authority made purchases worth $794 million, and in January accumulated $2,230. million, said market analyst Gustavo Quintana.

At what level did the blue dollar close today, Friday, January 19?

He Dollar blue gave 20 dollars and closed at US$1170 For buys already US$1220 For saleaccording to survey Volume in the caves of the City.