Moldova tests its resistance to Russian influence in elections international

Two possible routes: westward, Europe; In the east, Russia. Moldova (2.5 million inhabitants) is celebrating a double electoral event this Sunday that will measure the extent of Russian influence in the former Soviet republic as well as the health of Europeanism in Moldova. Voters are called to the polls in order, on the one hand, to vote for the current head of state, 52-year-old Maia Sandu, as favorite in the presidential election, and on the other hand, to show in the referendum whether they support or reject Are. The process of open accession to the European Union. According to the latest surveys, about 65% of voters are in favor of checking the yes box in the consultation. However, Moscow’s long shadow looms large over both elections. The Moldovan Information and Security Service estimates that Russia spent more than 50 million euros last year trying to influence elections, including vote buying.

The referendum ballot asks: “Do you support amending the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova to join the European Union?” A positive vote in this consultation would not only shield the accession process by law, but also shift the identity of a country between two seas to the West since it gained independence from the USSR in 1991. “A positive vote,” he says in an exchange post office Orisia Lutsevich of the Chatham House analysis centre, “will signal to Brussels that there is strong popular support for accession. “‘No’ will undermine negotiations and could stall the integration process.” Of the 15 campaigning parties, only two (the Party of Communists of Moldova and the Renaissance Republic) advocated negative suffrage.

Landlocked Moldova, located between Ukraine to the west and Romania to the east, which ranks lowest among Eastern European economies due to its deep dependence on Russia for agriculture and energy, has aroused growing interest among VCs. The old continent faces Vladimir Putin’s imperialist moves. An example of this duality is the race for head of state, in which Sandu, head of the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), is the only candidate among the main candidates with no prior ties to Moscow. And which openly defends the commitment to reach Brussels. Last Thursday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to the country’s capital, Chisinau, with a 1.8 billion euro package to boost reforms and growth. The EU’s commitment is clear.

Moldova has already covered part of this journey towards Twenty-Seven. Chisinau signed cooperation and trade agreements with Brussels in 2014, in line with what Ukraine did after the start of Russian aggression in its eastern region a decade earlier. As was the case with Kiev, rapprochement towards the EU worked rapidly until the war initiated by Moscow in February 2022. Only after a month will he formalize his application for membership. Talks between the parties have been open since last December.

Sandu, a former World Bank employee, has been the face in these four years of Moldova’s mandate with the European profession, away from the Soviet path, oligarchism and relations with Moscow. A year after his victory in the presidential elections, the fresh air served him well in 2021 as he also secured a parliamentary majority in the elections. According to a poll published on October 7 by the Aspen Institute and Watchdog Moldova, the current head of state would receive 36.1% support to renew his post, while his party’s former Attorney General Alexander Stoianglou would receive 10.1% support. socialist; 7.5% from populist Renato Usati, and 4.1% from Irina Vlah, an independent candidate and former governor of the Gagauzia region.

These last three would fit into the already very broad German label putinvarstehrPeople who understand Putin. That is, pro-Russian political leaders who, in this case, also know how to avoid any sympathy for the invading neighbor on the other side of the border. However, the pro-Kremlin narrative has not been the protagonist in the electoral campaign. Whatever the post-election scenario, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, the first two candidates will face each other in a second round on November 3. Although the head of state has limited powers, he is responsible for making a proposal to the Prime Minister, which is then approved by the Parliament.

ukraine influence

Russian aggression in Ukraine will be very present at Moldova’s polling stations – voting is also carried out abroad, where 1.2 million citizens live, although just over 1,800 voters have registered. This attack dealt a double blow to the country’s already weak economy. Firstly, due to the arrival of thousands of refugees requesting assistance – Moldova immediately received help from the EU and humanitarian agencies. However, the country was and remains a transit route for displaced persons, and only 120,000 people have requested asylum. Secondly, Moscow took advantage of the conflict to reduce gas supplies, forcing Chisinau to buy into Romania and increasing bills. Over the past two years, all this has led to street protests, from sectors of society inclined toward rapprochement with Moscow.

“Russia is actively interfering in the election results in Moldova,” says Lutsevich of Chatham House. “Their aim, as in Georgia (where elections are on the 26th), is to hinder the country’s integration into the EU. “It will lose the control over Chisinau that it previously exercised, leading to the creation of a frozen conflict in Transnistria (the power of this lever is decreasing).” Analysts at the London-based think tank refer to the strip between Moldova and Ukraine, which was ruled by pro-Russian separatists after declaring independence in the early nineties and which has 1,500 to 2,000 uniformed personnel under Kremlin orders. Was deployed. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has reiterated on several occasions, more than 200,000 citizens with Russian passports live in the region. That means half the population of the enclave. Last February, Transnistria officials asked for protection from Russia in view of “pressure” from Chisinau, especially on the economic level.

Publicly, Moscow maintains a measured narrative about the elections. However, under the table, it has exerted its pressure through a mixed offensive: with propaganda, disinformation campaigns on the networks and the actions of individuals such as Russia-based oligarch Ilan Shor, who has been forced to withdraw illegal assets almost in his absence. He was sentenced to 15 years’ imprisonment. million euros from the Moldovan banking system a decade ago. According to security forces, the tycoon – born in Israel, but of Moldovan nationality – has more than 130,000 voters on his payroll ahead of this Sunday’s elections. This Thursday, Moldovan police reported that they had discovered a plot to send to Russia and train citizens who would later take part in protests and disorders in Moldova. According to officials, there will be noise behind this conspiracy.