Private consumption is expected to grow 2.5% this year and 2.1% in 2025, according to BBVA.
Height private consumption will exceed 2023 records (1.8%) in both 2024 and 2025 and grow by 2.5% and 2.1% respectively, according to the forecast BBVA Researchbank research service.
That’s clear from October’s consumer report, which explains that job creation, rising wages and pensions, and lower inflation will boost the economy.to real disposable income. BBVA confirms that gross disposable income is growing more than expected due to wages and non-wage income, as well as lower inflation, which is added to by falling nominal interest rates. This increases consumer confidence.
The IMF is raising its forecast for Spanish economic growth by five-tenths in 2024, to 2.9%.
The expected revaluation of financial assets, debt reduction and rising property prices will contribute to an increase in net wealth.
BBVA calculated that Household savings rate to rise in 2024 by 1.3 percentage points, to 13.3% of their gross disposable income, and remain at that level in 2025.
Services and durable goods drive up costs over the two years, helped by changing household preferences following the pandemic, the easing of supply constraints in some sectors and increased sensitivity to income and wealth growth.
The College of Economists maintained its forecast for growth of 2.9% this year.
For my part, registration of cars They will reach about a million units this year and could rise to 1.1 million next year as purchasing power recovers, lower fuel prices, lower financing costs and the disappearance of supply constraints.
Although sales of pure electric passenger cars grew by 9.8% year on year in the first nine months of 2024, they barely accounted for 5.1% of the total through September, far from the European average of 13.1%. , this growth will slow more than the private sector: growth will be 3.9% this year, down from 5.2% last year and slowing to 2.7% in 2025.
This increase in consumption is due to some best macroeconomic forecasts from BBVA research servicewhich recently revised upward its estimate of Spain’s GDP growth by four-tenths this year, to 2.9%, and by three-tenths in 2025, to 2.4%.
The report also highlights that demand for labor will continue to grow and, barring bottlenecks and other factors reducing Spain’s attractiveness, immigrants will continue to arrive to contribute to the labor market.