If you believe in God, who are you most likely to vote for in American elections?

(CNN Spanish) – In the tight race they are running in, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have made every effort to differentiate themselves as loudly and clearly as they can. However, there is a call that both share, that of God, that is difficult to escape in a country where nearly two-thirds of the population is Christian, according to Pew Research Center data, and which has been dealt a severe blow since the annulment. The sentence of Roe Vs. Wade guaranteed the right to abortion.

The vocal support of some white evangelical groups for Trump, which is critical of the former president who declared himself a Presbyterian, could lead us to the conclusion that the believers are clearly with the Republicans, who made the promise in the revision of their popular slogan. Have encouraged them with proposals such as “force the United States to pray again” and “reclaim Christianity in this country.”

However, a broader look at the numbers also allows us to imagine the groups that support Democrats, including those who grew up attending a black Baptist church in Oakland and, as CNN recently reported , he has relied on his faith and his relationships with the black religious community to attract black voters in the final stages of the contest.

According to a Pew Research Center study published in September, Protestants overall can be defined as a group that overwhelmingly supports Trump (61% compared to 37% who lean toward Harris). .

However, it is a denomination that brings together churches that “may be opposites in terms of theology and some social positions,” as Frédéric Castell of the Department of Religious Studies at the University of Quebec in Quebec explained in an article in The Conversation. Is. Montreal (UQAM), it is therefore necessary to distinguish the trends of that universe from those of the majority of non-Catholic Christians in the United States, both at the level of ideas and formation.

“The meaning of the partisan inclinations of confessional groups will disappear from us if we do not pay attention to how the ethnic or racial groups that compose them express strong socio-political differences due to their historical experiences, sociology and sensitivities Are,” says Castells, who distinguishes, in line with the pollsters, three “ethno-confessional” blocks.

The greatest support for the former president is among evangelical white people: According to the Pew Research Center, 82% side with the Republican candidate, while only 16% lean toward the Democrat. It is a religious group that Trump has particularly targeted, having already received majority support in the race he lost against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Non-evangelical Protestant whites also mostly side with Trump, although the difference in percentage is much smaller (58% with Trump vs. 41% with Harris).

The panorama among black Protestants is reversed: 86% lean toward Harris — which is higher than even white evangelicals who support Trump — while only 11% of black Protestants support the former president. Academics at the University of Quebec in Montreal say that these churches’ support for the Democrats was at the height of the civil rights movement.

We should also keep in mind, Castells clarified environmental issues in a conversation with CNN: “We can mention that Catholics and historical Protestants (defined in English as mainline Protestants, as distinct from evangelicals) “The regional environment may be a little more pro-GOP in the South and a little more Democratic in the North.”

Taking Catholics as a whole, preferences lean toward Trump, but without a clear margin: According to the Pew Research Center, 52% support the former president, while 47% prefer the vice president. However, the figures change strongly when the results are disaggregated by ethnic group.

Among white Catholics, support for Trump has increased to 61%, while preference for Harris has fallen to 38%. The opposite happens among Hispanic Catholics: 65% lean toward the vice president, while 34% express their support for the former president.

In fact, according to the Pew Research Center, the vice president received more support from Hispanic Catholics (as well as black Protestants) than President Joe Biden in April, just months before he dropped out of the race amid widespread criticism for his performance and support. Is. Former Attorney General of California.

Castells highlighted the complexity inherent in the category of Latino in a conversation with CNN, as “it brings together many communities of different origins and who live in different parts of the country.” “Protestant Latinos (mostly evangelicals) vote significantly more for Republican candidates than Catholic Latinos. “The irony is, however, that Latinos are a rising force within the American Catholic universe,” he explained.

Among Jews, who represent 2.4% of the United States population according to the Pew Research Center, there is also majority support for Harris (65% versus 34% who lean toward Trump, who has openly criticized those members of the community. Criticized those who don’t like it).

These partisan endorsements, like those of other groups, are not new: As CNN has reported, American Jews have been a largely Democratic and politically liberal group for decades. However, there are internal divisions. Conservatives lean predominantly Republican, while American Jews of other religions, including the Reform and Conservative branches, identify more with the Democrats.

The Pew Research Center survey included responses from Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus and people of other minority religions, but not enough to report separately, the organization said.

Among those who do not follow any religion, the outlook is overwhelming: 68% go with Harris, while 28% go with Trump.

The percentage among atheists is even more pronounced. Among the group that directly denies the existence of God, 85% support goes to the Democratic candidate, while only 13% support Trump. The numbers are slightly lower among agnostics, with support overwhelmingly pro-Harris.

Castells says the rise of the religiously unaffiliated population – as well as the rise of Hispanics and the decline of evangelicals – creates challenges for political strategists and researchers alike.

“For now and probably for the next few years, we can say that the numerical decline of evangelicals will not help the Republican Party and the growth of people who are not affiliated (with any religion) will help the Democratic Party,” Castells says. Anti-abortion laws are also most disapproved of among people with no religious affiliation, which doesn’t help Republicans either. “This is the current trend. We can imagine that this will continue as long as the political context and current issues remain the same. However, the ratio of Democrat supporters to Republican supporters may change slightly depending on other issues or other reasons.

There are some issues that, as the Pew Research Center points out, are important to most voters regardless of their religious affiliation. Of course, there’s the economy in that bag, but there are other issues like health care, foreign policy and Supreme Court appointments.

However, there are other topics that become more relevant in specific groups.

One of them, surprisingly, is immigration. Nearly eight in 10 white Christians – a group that overwhelmingly supports Trump – say the immigration issue is very important in their decision about who to support (among white Catholics, the figure is more than seven in 10 ).

At the other end of the spectrum, abortion is important to atheists: About three-quarters of that group say it is important in their decision. And this is also very significant when polling for more than half of black agnostics, Jews and Protestants in the survey is significant.

Both these issues have played a leading role in the campaign.

Trump has repeatedly pushed his hard-line stance on immigration, with his speeches often filled with xenophobic and racist comments about Mexicans, Venezuelans, Haitians and others. Meanwhile, Harris has spoken out against abortion restrictions being implemented in red states like Texas following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade, who guaranteed the right at the national level, warned that the landscape for reproductive rights would worsen if his opponent wins.

(By the way, abortion rights will be on the ballot in at least 10 states this election. Most of the measures being put on the ballot seek to enshrine this right in state constitutions following restrictive laws enacted in recent years. ).

Consistent with other Western countries, the religious landscape in the United States is undergoing a significant shift: according to Pew Research Center data, in the early 1990s, nearly 90% of adults identified as Christian. . By 2022, a steep decline had already been recorded, and Christians numbered two-thirds of the adult population. Scenarios for 2070 project clear declines.

In line with population changes, could the United States have a no-confidence candidate in the future? “It is the American people who have to answer for this. But we can heed the lessons of history. In 1960, the public elected a Catholic candidate; In 2008, to a black man; In 2016, a woman (as the Democratic nominee), etc.,” Castells responded.

With reporting by Gregory Craig, Priscilla Alvarez, Kanita Iyer, Ariane de Vogue, Sofia Benavides, Kate Sullivan, Eva McKendre, Arit John and Zachary B. Wolf.