Biden left Trump a thriving economy, with almost no unemployment and controlled inflation. usa elections

“Are you in a better position today than you were four years ago?” On October 28, 1980, just a week before the presidential election, Ronald Reagan asked voters that question. The then Governor of California won the election against President Jimmy Carter. Since then it has become a quintessential election issue. Trump has been repeating this repeatedly at his rallies in the final weeks of the campaign, while presenting the United States as an economy on the brink of recession. However, the truth is that the new tenant of the White House has inherited an economy that is growing strongly, with the unemployment rate near its historic low and inflation, the major problem of Joe Biden’s mandate, under control. . The main problem is the large public deficit and rising debt.

Trump says the economy is a mess but will fix it “quickly” when he takes office. So fast, it’s actually already decided. Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy, the United States is achieving what economists – in a term borrowed from the space race – call a soft landing: controlling inflation without recession or massive job losses.

Republicans took advantage of distorted October data – which showed the storm created only 12,000 net jobs Helen And Milton And the Boeing strike—to make fun of the statistics. “These are jobs that Walmart creates, not the United States,” he said. He called them the “worst numbers” in history, despite the fact that during his mandate, and in the middle of the pandemic, there was a month in which 20.5 million jobs were destroyed. And, before the pandemic, in February 2019, another in which only 5,000 were made. 243,000 jobs were lost in December 2020, his last full month in office. His tenure ended with employment lower than when he arrived at the White House.

With Biden, in the heat of the pandemic recovery, first, and the strength of consumption, second, jobs have been created in each month he has been president, with 16 million new jobs added. The unemployment rate, which stood at 6.7% at the end of 2020, has fallen to 4.1% and has now been below 4% for 26 months, the best streak in half a century. In the 1980 debate, immediately after the first question, Reagan, knowing that unemployment had increased under Carter, added: “Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago?”

15.5% GDP growth

According to IMF data, US GDP declined by 2.1% in Trump’s final year in office and grew by 5.8% overall in his four years. Over Biden’s four years, the economy has grown 15.5%, in keeping with the fund’s forecast for this year. In the third quarter it grew at the rate of about 3% annually. Even if the years 2020 and 2021 are removed from the count to remove distortions from the pandemic, the comparison is still in Biden’s favor.

Inflation has been Biden’s major economic Achilles heel and largely accounts for Trump’s landslide victory in the election. Prices have risen more than 20% during his tenure, compared to less than 8% in the former president’s four years. External factors have once again been decisive. The pandemic, supply chain jams and the war in Ukraine caused inflation to hit a high of 9.1% in June 2022, the highest level in four decades, prompting Carter to hand over the presidency due to the inflation outbreak.

Trump said in his rallies that he was going to end inflation. However, this is a problem that has basically been overcome. According to Reuters data, prices rose 2.4% over the past 12 months, down from 2.5% in the 12 months before Trump’s pandemic. If you look at the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, inflation is now at 2.1%, just one-tenth of the central bank’s price stability target.

Although inflation has declined, prices have not. This is playing out in the minds of voters, who are reminded of how much it cost to go out for dinner or go shopping four years ago. Citizens usually do not see the other side of the story: wages have also increased. In fact, according to Reuters data, disposable personal income has increased by 10% in real terms, that is, already discounted for inflation. Of course, this is an average, so there may be many homes that haven’t noticed that overall improvement.

Regarding the net worth of households, it is highly dependent on the housing price and stock market growth, it has also increased strongly. It stood at $164 trillion (slightly more than 150 trillion euros) at the end of the second quarter, according to Federal Reserve data, the most recent data available. This is $32 trillion more than at the end of 2020. By the way, one of the people whose wealth has increased the most by more than $50 billion during Biden’s mandate is staunch Trumpist Elon Musk. During his administration the stock market has increased by almost 50% and has not stopped breaking one record after another.

In fact, the United States’ biggest economic problem is its public accounts. According to Federal Reserve data, the deficit is between 6% and 7% of GDP and the federal debt has increased by more than $7 trillion during Biden’s tenure (though it has increased more under Trump). Trump fought the election without any credible proposals to solve this problem.