Trump is an “unpredictable” president who is in a hurry to end the war
“I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop them“Former President and Republican candidate for the presidential elections held on November 2 in the United States Donald Trump said in his speech on election night, when he was still His victory was not made official.
The New York tycoon had already made this promise during his campaign and committed to it achieve peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East, Although without explaining how. “During my administration we got peace in the Middle East and very soon we will find peace again“, he recalled through his account on the social network X.
The truth is that Trump’s return to the White House is beginning 20th JanuaryWhen he takes office, he could significantly change the course of the wars currently being fought in the Middle East.
“What will be the consequences of Trump’s victory? change in current status “There will be a change with Trump because his personality is very different from Biden,” Luz Gomez, professor of Arab and Islamic studies at the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM), told RTVE.ES. He Netanyahu cannot behave like one: Say one thing and do another, as they have done on some occasions with the Biden administration,” emphasizes the professor, who emphasizes in this sense that “if Netanyahu intends, as he has announced, That the war ends in two months, it would be hard to go around and say you’re going to do this and then not do it.
In the opinion of Hazem Amirah Fernandez, an analyst specializing in international relations in the Middle East, the President-elect of the United States is “in a hurry to end the war and do other things.” “Arab leaders take it kept asking continuously for a yearAlso for political reasons, their internal politics, their public opinion… People in Gaza and Lebanon are seeing massacres every day. “Netanyahu is the only one who is in no hurry to end the war or open fronts,” he said in a statement to RTVE.es.
Along the same lines, Issam Aruri, Palestinian analyst and director of the Jerusalem Legal Aid Center (JLAC), believes that although Trump may be unpredictable And while he may have extreme views, he says he will not intervene in any war now.” “Trump has made it clear He does not want to get involved in wars. And he will do everything possible to stop the current,” he added.
Netanyahu may regret early “enthusiastic” support for Trump
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the first to congratulate Trump after his election victory. “Congratulations on the The biggest comeback in history!”, hinted via his account at X Netanyahu, who on other occasions has described Trump as “Israel’s best friend in the White House”.
During his first term, the New York magnate pursued strongly pro-Israel policies, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, negotiating the Abraham Accords and the United Nations for the Palestinians. Cut funding from the National Agency for Refugees (UNRWA).
Despite growing frustration with Netanyahu, the Biden administration has delayed any significant pressure on Netanyahu until after the election Barriers by the Israeli government to the arrival of humanitarian aid to Gaza, its campaign against the united nations Or his procrastination to prevent a peace agreement from being achieved.
But the fact that a close aide has returned to the White House This does not give Netanyahu complete freedom. Trump assured that he wants the war in Gaza to end and has also shown in the past that they have close ties Relations with some leaders of Arab countries Who have contacts with Hamas.
“During his first term, Trump behaved like an unpredictable person. Some of the statements he made at the beginning of his campaign are worrying, when he said he looked at the map and saw that Israel is a small state and that I wanted to see how it could be expanded.” says Aruri. “But, at the same time, he is willing to make an agreement in which other Arab countries participate.especially Saudi Arabia, who stipulates that he wants Israel’s commitment A Palestinian state is established” says the Palestinian analyst, who emphasizes that “For this reason, we are not sure what Trump will do.”
For her part, Amira Fernandez emphasizes that “part of the Trump campaign has been to repeatedly say that Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine will end Because there is fatigue and weariness in the United States from these conflicts. “This clash of expectations may not end up being what Netanyahu hoped for, even if he wants to pretend it is He is very happy with Trump’s return to the White House“, he points out.
“What he is trying to project to Israeli public opinion, to the world, is one thing (…), but May regret that enthusiastic support“This is what the experts say.
A billboard in Tel Aviv, Israel displaying a photo of US President-elect Donald Trump and the words “Congratulations! Trump, Make Israel Great” AP/ODD Balilti
Analysts say potential tensions between Israel and the incoming Trump administration as the next president are an additional reason The United States is offered “to the highest bidder”Amira Fernandez explains, “Trump is going to listen to other voices from the Middle East, he is going to listen to Arab leaders who will place their bets.”
“Trump is a businessman and he has a promise put in And in economic matters, so presumably he has no interest in keeping that drain of American finances focused on military aid to Israel,” Gomez says, referring to the approx. 18 trillion dollars Which Washington would have spent on the war.
Without ruling out a possible understanding between Iran and the Trump administration
Washington and Tehran have maintained a Hostile relations since the 1979 Islamic revolution And then the takeover of the US Embassy for 444 days. Trump’s first term was marked by a period “Maximum pressure” policy implemented“Against Iran.
Trump administration withdraws United States from Iran nuclear deal, applies major sanctions against the country and killed General Qassem Soleimani, the most powerful Iranian military commander in Iraq.
“In Trump’s first presidency, he implemented the so-called Strategy of maximum pressure against Iran. It is true that the context is different now. Amira Fernandez says, “Iran has now seen its position weakened in the Middle East and some of its allies have become extremely weak.” Hamas and Hezbollah too I have been beaten a lotHowever, Iran still has Ability to attack Israel And create serious problems,” he adds.
Recently tensions have arisen between Israel and Iran due to months of ongoing attacks Fear of all-out regional war. In response to the deaths of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran launched at least 240 ballistic missiles against Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on October 1, both of which were hit by Israeli action. For its part, Israel responded by launching “precise and concentrated” airstrikes against Iran three weeks later.
Netanyahu defended that the strike in Iran was “precise and powerful”
“Iran has tried in every possible way not to get directly involved in the war in Gaza or even in the war in Israel or Lebanon. Responses have been very lukewarm “And the Israeli attacks, whether direct or indirect, were almost forced to kill their leaders,” says Gomez. “While this has been a very lukewarm response, it tells us that Tehran He does not want any conflict or confrontation with the United States. “It may be that the containment is going to be even greater in an attempt to show some possibility of some reconciliation or understanding with the Trump administration,” he stressed.
Although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly expressed his disapproval of Trump, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian campaigned on a promise. move closer to the west To lift sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program.
According to Amira Fernandez, relations between the United States and Iran will depend on “who makes up Donald Trump’s team, what their inclinations are, whether they are toward a more isolationist United States—on economic or internal issues.” Is more focused – or does it have more, for example, interventionist tendencies Try to bring about regime change in Iran“If they feel this is a moment of weakness, then engaging in war against Iran would be an extreme scenario.”
Ceasefire is easy in Lebanon
Trump has also made it clear that he wants early peace agreement in lebanon If none has been achieved during the final months of the Biden presidency. Before the election, the former Republican president pledged End of “suffering and destruction” In Lebanon, although without giving further details.
In parallel with the war in Gaza, Israel and the Iran-backed Shiite militia party Hezbollah have been exchanging attacks for more than a year. Fighting has intensified since late September Israeli bombing of southern and eastern Lebanon And conducts ground attacks on border villages.
US diplomatic efforts to prevent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including a resolution 60 day ceasefireFailed before the US elections.
Lebanon accepts one of Israel’s ceasefire demands
Now, the elected president can become Important part of putting pressure on Netanyahu To end the conflict in Lebanon. “Trump could push for a halt to military strikes in Lebanon to show that he is different and that’s what he promised in his election campaign,” Arouri says, though he emphasizes that ‘ ‘We know that Israel does not make any concessions for free. ,
For Trump, professor of Arab and Islamic studies at UAM “It’s relatively simple” In the case of Lebanon, “being a sovereign state and being able to put more pressure on Netanyahu and demand an end to hostilities.” “It’s a different matter that this end of hostilities does not involve any kind of presence on the ground by Israel, that some part of Lebanese territory can be controlled in some way,” says Gomez, who believes that “it That’s not an acceptable end.” Nor is it fair in the context of international law, but perhaps that’s what Trump and Netanyahu are going to try.”
Biden and Harris government still have two months left, “Very dangerous period in the Middle East”According to Amirah Fernandez, that is something Netanyahu and his coalition partners can take advantage of to pursue their plans, “whether annexing Palestinian territories or provoking regional military scale.”