‘America First’: Who are the winners and losers in Europe after Trump’s election?

This article was originally published in English

Donald Trump’s political return to the United States has been welcomed by some supporters EuropeDespite warnings that the next US president could influence Security, protect and the economic interests of the continent.

Although some populist politicians have called the former US president’s victory a political victory, experts have warned that it is unlikely. Trump’s victory Help them in the long run. Here’s who you think may or may not benefit from the upcoming changes transatlantic relations,

Who are the winners of Europe after the elections?

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the first European leader to congratulate the new President of the United States and celebrated the victory by affirming that it was “a much-needed victory for the world”, and later saying that it would be “change. “Will bring mentalities and ideas”.

Former European Commissioner Thierry Breton made the announcement to ‘Euronews’ this week Orban will likely be Trump’s main contact in EuropePeter Cracow, a political analyst at the Institute of Political Capital in Budapest, says that although most people see Orbán as Trump’s potential negotiator in Europe, the actual impact of the result in the country is “paradoxical”.

Cracow confirmed that the Hungarian Prime Minister orban is one Increasingly important figure in the eyes of American Republicans And that’s certainly good for him” and something he can take advantage of. But for example, if Trump imposes higher tariffs on the German car industry, that’s something that could hurt the Hungarian economy. .

,Diplomatically, raise (Orbán’s) profileBut economically, it is difficult to see how this could bring any real benefit to Hungary,” Cracco said.

Another politician who called Trump’s victory a victory for Europe Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who celebrated Trump’s “glorious return” And said that the leadership of the new US President “can only be good for Italy, Europe and the whole world.”

Hendrik Vos, professor of political science at Ghent University (Belgium), said that those who want to benefit from Trump administration shares opinions on immigration and traditional valuesBut their style of participating in politics is also similar.

,they are very polarizingThey attack political opponents fiercely and make things as difficult as possible for the opposition. They break the rules of the democratic political game, and for this reason, Orbán and Salvini regularly receive attention in Europe,” Vos said. “Together Trump’s arrival in the presidency of the United Statesthey will see it as a Validation“, Said.

However, according to experts, Trump’s political agenda continues to prioritize US interests above everything else. The Republican Party platform, written with a tone reminiscent of Trump’s style, reads in capital letters “America first“, and claims that previous US leaders sold jobs abroad and had “blind faith in the siren song of globalism.” “If Trump has to choose between American interests and the interests of Hungary or Italy, We will always give priority to Americans” Orbán and Salvini should not expect any favors, Vos said.

Who are Europe’s political losers?

There is widespread agreement that Trump’s victory will reverberate across Europe and impact companies, defense and security.

Maia Cross, director of the Center for International Affairs and World Cultures at Northeastern University in the US, said: Trump’s election will probably be very worrying for France and Germany As “major powers in relation to European security and defence”.

But Cross said that, no matter what, Trump’s policies are “going to be harmful to Europe in general”From potentially higher tariffs on imports to the potential impact on the stability of the region.

“I think in the long run, though, it might add a sense of Renewed Support For the anti-immigration and xenophobic stances of many groups of far right in EuropeIt won’t help them because the voters are going to see that,” he said.

Speaking at the European Political Community meeting in Budapest, French President Emmanuel Macron said it was not his role to say whether Trump would be good or bad for Europe. He said, “He was elected by the American people and he is going to protect the interests of the Americans. That is legitimate and a good thing.” Macron. “The question is whether we are ready to defend European interests”,

Similar messages have come from other European leaders, with Polish President Donald Tusk warning ahead of the election that Europe’s future “depends first of all on us.”

A special concern for leaders future of US support As for Ukraine and NATO, Trump encouraged Russia to attack countries that do not spend enough on defense.

Overall, Vos cautions, “This is not just a matter of a few leaders explicitly supporting Trump.” “Too There will be countries that will be willing to buy weapons from the United States or to reach bilateral agreements is favorable to the Trump administration,” he explains.

,Trump will undoubtedly try to pit EU member states against each otherPreventing this will be an important task for the European Commission.” Craco said that although Trump’s victory “boost populist popularity in the short termI think it’s a real question in the medium and long term how this relationship with Europe develops.