New Hampshire, Nikki Haley has last chance to stop Trump in primaries

In early January, Nikki Haley joked during a rally in New Hampshire about the state’s role in the Republican primary. “You already know where Iowa starts. You already know you’re going to fix it,” he said, drawing laughter from the audience. “And then my beloved state South Carolina ends it,” she commented about her home state and where she was governor.

Haley was trying to sweeten the pill for voters accustomed to having more power than the rest of the country in selecting a candidate for the White House and who are typically in competition with Iowa over who gets first to caucuses, legislatures, and state legislatures. Holds more informal votes through. But this is also similar to the primaries in the case of Republicans.

New Hampshire has also lost power in the Democratic Party’s candidacy, which has decided to launch its primaries in South Carolina, a state more representative of the country’s diversity. In any case, the Democratic side has little importance this year because the candidate is presidential and there is hardly any competition.

For Haley, the New Hampshire primary this Tuesday is one of the few she hopes will continue her campaign and a great opportunity for her after the return of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. If, indeed, New Hampshire does not somehow “fix” Donald Trump’s landslide victory in Iowa, Haley, the only opponent who has made it this far, will have difficulty moving forward.

“If you can’t win New Hampshire, there’s no reason you can win anywhere else,” writes Nate Cohn, polling analyst. new York Times,

Haley, who came under fire in Iowa for somewhat disparaging comments about the caucuses, is correct that New Hampshire has a tradition of changing the course of races and, in some cases, preventing the most extreme candidate from winning.

“Although this may sound rude, there is some truth in it,” writes Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. “The last Republican candidates who were not sitting presidents – John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012 and Donald Trump himself in 2016 – failed to win in Iowa, but then they failed to win in New Hampshire on their way to the nomination.”

It is also generally clear that New Hampshire gives candidates more sweat on election night and there is more competition in the polls where primaries typically have higher participation than other states. More than 300,000 people are estimated to vote this year (about 110,000 Republicans voted in Iowa this year).

More enthusiasm is expected in New Hampshire than in Iowa, where Trump won by such a clear margin – 30 points over second DeSantis – that half an hour into the caucuses the Associated Press news agency already correctly predicted the outcome. Had taken.

In three of the last six competitive primaries – that is, where there was no incumbent president – ​​victory was decided by less than 10% of the vote, Scala outlined.

Election

Haley may have more options now that she got what she wanted from a two-way race and can consolidate the remaining anti-Trump votes among the most active Republicans, who would have voted in the party’s primaries. and independents who may, in fact, be Democrats or less extremist voters.

But the former governor still clearly lags Trump in voting intentions. The average of the polls puts him about 14 points behind Trump, 36% to 50%. In the daily update of surveys of boston globeThe departure of DeSantis, whose voting intention barely topped 5%, has apparently not gone unnoticed.

In any case, New Hampshire is the state where Haley is in the best shape so far. It’s also closer to Trump than South Carolina, which has primary voting on February 24.

less conservative

New Hampshire is generally a less conservative state than Iowa in both partisan and religious leanings. In fact, since 2004, the Democratic candidate has always received the majority of votes in the presidential elections here. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state where a majority of voters describe themselves as Democrats, by more than seven points.

The current governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, is a moderate and populist Republican who has endorsed Haley. He himself said in 2023 that he aspired to a more “normal” party than the one now represented by Trump.

Historically, Republicans have tended to vote for candidates considered more moderate, such as John McCain against George W. Bush in 2000 or Mike Huckabee in 2008, and Mitt Romney against Rick Santorum in 2012. However, we should not forget that in the 2016 primaries, Trump won here with 35% of the votes. It is true that the vote for what could then be considered moderate Republicans was more divided between followers of John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie. This year, the fight is very clear.

independent

One of the characteristics of New Hampshire, whose official motto is “live Free or Die(Live Free or Die), is the number of people who identify or register as independent. Right now, according to data as of Jan. 19, the largest group of people registering to vote in this state do not declare any party affiliation.

This also has an impact on primaries because independent voters or voters who have not previously declared their affiliation can choose to vote in any party’s primaries (of course they must choose a primary each year). Since the Democratic primary is not competitive this year, a large number of Democratic voters may be interested in participating in the Republican vote to have some influence on who will be the Republican nominee for the White House. Thus there are thousands of Democrats who have changed their affiliation to Republican or Independent in order to participate in the Republican vote.

In the past few hours, a fake audio imitating Biden’s voice has been circulating as one of the usual robocalls that voters receive in New Hampshire and which in this case encourages them not to participate in the primaries .

Haley is a favorite among voters who identify as independent, but it remains to be seen how significant she will be among voters in these primaries.

city ​​and university

75% of the primary votes are concentrated in four of the 10 counties that make up the state and where the largest cities and universities are located: Hillsborough, where Manchester and Nashua, the largest cities, are located; Merrimack, where the capital, Concord, is located; Strafford, home of Dover, home of the University of New Hampshire, and Rockingham, Salem, Exeter, and Portsmouth, is one of the most progressive cities in the state.

Hillsborough is particularly interesting as a highly competitive and diverse county. The key here, according to Professor Scala, may be in the city of Bedford, one of the places where there are generally more rallies due to high levels of voter participation among other things and where there are generally high levels of support for Trump. But there are more difficulties. Level educational. In 2016, Trump won the primary in the state but click here.

“If Haley is to have a chance of causing an upset, she will have to win Bedford and wealthy towns like it in a landslide. If Trump wins here, take it as a sign that a large number of college-educated Republicans have rallied around their working-class base,” Scala says.

The participation of Democrats in these primaries can also be seen in Strafford County, which has several university towns like Durham and Dover, and where this mobilization against Trump can be seen.

other type of area

The rest of New Hampshire’s counties are more rural and have lower populations and therefore fewer votes, but it is a different type of rurality than other areas of the United States.

To begin with, these are border areas that are also marked by relationships with the neighboring states of Vermont and Massachusetts. And, above all, they are rural areas, but where schools, universities and other institutions are also located. For example, this is the case at Dartmouth and Hanover. There are also more conservative rural areas, but in some of these places, in 2016, alternative and more moderate candidates were more successful than Trump.

Are the rules valid?

As is often the case with Trump, it is difficult to apply not only the rules of past electoral trajectories, but also the definition of the voters themselves.

The divide between conservative and liberal voters in the Republican Party is now in question, as the only detail that matters to many voters is whether or not they are close to Trump, regardless of his views on abortion rights. Does not match the coherent set. Taxes, immigration or religion.

Thus, for example, senators who are very conservative in their statements and votes may be perceived by voters as less conservative if they have been critical of Trump, according to an academic study that analyzed the opinions of Republican activists.

other battles

We must not forget that no matter what happens this Tuesday, Trump has a tough road ahead from now until the Republican convention in July and even the November elections if he is the nominee.

In February, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on the first case related to the attack on the Capitol that affects him, in this case the legality of canceling his candidacy in the Colorado primary for inciting insurrection.

Between March and May, three of the four criminal trials pending against him will begin, and the fourth could begin in August. Trump faces 91 charges including falsifying documents, stealing public records, trying to change the results of the 2020 election and inciting violence including the attack on the Capitol.

The Republican Party has some leeway to change its candidate until its announcement at the convention, which is being held in Milwaukee between July 15 and 18 this year.