CaixaBank arrives for the presentation of its new strategic plan with a price in the maximum zone
CaixaBank is preparing to provide start of scene change. The company is finalizing preparations for its Investor Day celebrations in Madrid next Tuesday, at which the strategic plan for 2025-2027 will be announced. CEO Gonzalo Gortazar will become Responsible for representing the group’s goals over the next three years, and he will do this accompanied by Director of Strategic Planning and Research Enric Fernandez. future guides They come at a favorable time for the bank in the stock market, which is moving near historical highs.
CaixaBank shares closed this Friday at 5.6 per share. near the peak 5.8 euros, which he celebrated on the eve of the US presidential elections. Donald Trump’s victory pushed the Spanish financial sector into setbacks due to the threat of a return to protectionism, which could slow down the eurozone economy and push the European Central Bank (ECB) accelerate the reduction of interest rates. After a slight correction, which was also affected by a decrease in the price of dividends by account 1.070 million (0.1488 euros) Having a deflatory effect on capitalization, it has increased by 50% this year, becoming the third Ibex 35 value to rise the most, behind only Banco Sabadell (+65.5%) and IAG (+62%).
In context marked by interest rate tailwindThe business returned to growth after stable results last year. A “rally” reflecting “success” in Bankia integrationchanging the business model towards greater diversification of commissions and greater weight of the insurance zoneand strengthening shareholder reward policies by including share repurchase programs. The Valencia-based company completed its latest security acquisition plan this week. owns for 500 million and is expected to launch another plan with the same characteristics starting Tuesday. A total of 1.5 billion will be added this year alone, if the one that ended in May last year.
“CaixaBank has demonstrated the ability to generate sufficient capital to support its dividend distribution,” comments Renta 4 banking analyst Nuria Alvarez. Matches Marisa MazoDeputy Director for Analysis GVC Geskowhich affects the results obtained in recent quarters and the dividend yield. Precisely one of the commitments established for the current three-year period is the distribution of 12 billion among investors 33% more than planned initially. From 2022 to date, they have paid out about 9 billion. The amount of cash allocated to annual earnings for 2024 remains unpaid, and this payment is usually approved at a shareholders meeting.
Once the profitability target is achieved after slightly exceeding the ROTE threshold of 12%, in addition to registering significant improvement efficiency – the lower it is, the better – up to 39.2%, lower than the proposed 48%, analysts focus on growth expectations, more precisely on the income forecast. “After an intense period of inorganic consolidation over the past decade, CaixaBank gained market share 25%. We believe that from now on the narrative will be focused on organic growth, sustainable profitability and attractive capital returns with few distractions and limited downside risk.” stand out from Jeffries.
Experts assess the bank’s ability to maintain the above-mentioned ROTE at a high level as the largest national entity, although It is expected that it will be lower than recorded today, given the normalization of interest rates to the downside, the lower limit of which is expected to be 2-2.25%. JP Morgan sees the strengthening of its various revenue streams as a selling point, which has consolidated over the past three years, although it still has a large dependence on the behavior of interest margin. It should be noted that this Thursday it upgraded its long-term debt issuer rating to ‘A’, above ‘A-‘ with a stable outlook, given the improvement in the structure of its debt instruments.
In the same spirit from Bestinver Trust in which the impact of the plan will be positive, since unlike other organizations that have decided not to provide guidance for 2025, given the uncertainty with the value of money, in the event CaixaBank offers “visibility”. “We believe it has various levers to maintain positive results in the coming years despite lower rates,” he emphasizes, citing fees and insurance as possible catalysts.
The novelty of the cycle that opens at CaixaBank is the resignation of José Ignacio Goirigolzarri as president of the bank, who passes the baton Thomas Muniesa. Director, member of the company and trustee Isidro Faine, will take up this position, but with non-executive functions, as recommended by the ECB. His resignation caps key executive departures over the years, such as the departure of the business’s CEO. Juan Antonio Alcaraz at the beginning of 2023 or transfer to Banco Santander Victor Allende, chief success of the management company.
In this record scenario, CaixaBank’s twelve-month potential narrowed to 12.3%. lowest among six Ibex 35 sites and almost half of this amount went to Banco Santander (25.9%), which leads the classification. Its evolution in the stock market and the prospects it represents divides shareholders, with 50% recommending both buy and hold, but no one preferring to sell or promoting the stock. Bloomberg consensus price target up to 6.3 euroswhich, if achieved, would destroy another maximum on the floor.