A COP without great expectations and with the shadow of Trump’s victory
The doors of the 29th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP29) are about to open. Baku is already the capital of Azerbaijan Wore clothes A grand ceremony was held to welcome the delegates representing the 198 participating artists (197 countries and the European Union).
This year, Between 40,000 to 50,000 delegates will attend the eventSomething that, in itself, already speaks volumes about its impact. “More than twice as many people traveled to the 2023 meeting in Dubai as will travel to Baku this year,” recalls Ricardo Martínez, senior researcher at the Global Cities Program at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB).
and it’s the same Azerbaijan climate summit will be a prelude to the great COP30 In which experts have concentrated all their senses, because “this will mark the final phase for 2030.” It will be held in Brazil and the country’s President Lula da Silva is committed to attending as host.
For this reason, as CIDOB researchers recall, they have chosen the city of Belen as an enclave to enter the decisive five years. ,“Choosing the gateway for Amazon is very symbolic.”He accepted. And that’s why the 2024 event is “not expected to be an excellent COP”, as the next one will be.
Finally, everything is blurred on the significance of 2025 as a year: “The Third round of contribution at national level, And there we will see how future climate ambitions are scaled up,” insists Martínez.
However, this does not mean that COP29 will be rejected out of hand. For example, from WWF, they assure that this climate summit can “A critical moment to unlock climate action.”
Fine-tuning of NDC
Environmental NGO recognizes this The Baku meeting “should lay the foundation for countries to develop national climate plans tailored to 1.5°C That will accelerate action in this crucial decade between now and 2030.” That is, this would be the right time to ‘fine-tune’ what are known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
These NDCs are nothing more than Roadmap for each country It should be presented to the United Nations to set the course for achieving decarbonization and ecological transition. So, this COP will be preparation for what is going to happen in Brazil.
Because, as he explains Ruth Nyamsege, “The next round of contributions should be more practical,” said one of the key figures of the NDC. We need to reduce global emissions by 32% by 2030But without concrete action, this ambition will remain a dead letter.”
Nyamsege also remembers the planet juggling to maintain its balance. “It has been 7 years since the first NDC was presented and yet, Emissions broke all records last year,
trump meteorite
The problem, says Nyamsege, is that “we are moving too slowly towards decarbonisation”. Of course, as already pointed out in Enclave SDGs, the new Trump era in the United States will not make the situation any easier.
However, as Martínez explains, “Decarbonization is going to happen and the Trump government will not be able to reverse it.”Because, he insists, it is already unstoppable and the private sector has also accelerated it in recent years. He indicates that if that happens, it will be slowed down, although “that remains to be seen.”
US climate diplomacy expert Alex Scott assures this in an analysis published medium Which, “the irony was During the last Trump presidency when investment in renewable energy began to exceed that in fossil fuels“Right now, remember, financing for solar and wind energy is double that of gas, coal and oil.”
where is the money
Although Baku does not generate much excitement, it will be important One of the biggest headaches for delegates since COP15 in Copenhagen Back in 2009: The financingThis was agreed upon in Denmark 15 years ago, recalls Martínez. Finance Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Among the weakest (and least developed) countries.
This amount was the magic number that made headlines peak after peak: 100 billion dollars annually. However, “it won’t begin completion until 2022,” he explains. And he digresses: “Also, a good portion is made up of loans and not subsidies.” That is to say, countries that are already poor and indebted become even more indebted to mitigate the effects of the climate emergency to which they have barely contributed.
COP agreement
COP1 Berlin (Germany, 1995)The gathered countries shared their desire to reduce greenhouse gases in the world, but without figures or a deadline.
COP3 Kyoto (Japan, 1997)The Kyoto Protocol was signed at this “historic” summit. The world thus entered a new era in the climate fight. For the first time, industrialized countries agreed on the obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
COP13 Bali (Indonesia, 2007)This roadmap was adopted for the negotiations that were to conclude an agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, whose validity expired in 2012.
COP15 Copenhagen (Denmark, 2009)Despite the fact that it was agreed to finance climate mitigation and adaptation, this was a weak COP. A non-binding minimum agreement was reached by the US, China and India without any time limit or commitment.
COP16 Cancún (Mexico, 2010)New negotiations have been agreed to extend the validity of the Kyoto Protocol and raise ambition regarding greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A text on long-term cooperation has been approved.
COP17 Durban (South Africa, 2011)reaches the peak in extreme Revive the Kyoto Protocol. An agreement has been reached between countries to “agree” on cutting global emissions. Japan, Russia and Canada decide not to renew their commitment to Kyoto and the day after the summit, Canada leaves the treaty.
COP18 Doha (Qatar, 2012)The second Kyoto Protocol is born. It has been agreed to extend the current one till the end of 2020.
COP21 Paris (France, 2015)This summit is the best, most symbolic and historic. This included the signing of the Paris Agreement, the largest binding global climate agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2 degrees, and preferably below 1.5 degrees, compared to pre-industrial levels.
COP22 Marrakesh (Morocco, 2016)Most states ratify the Paris Agreement.
COP23 Fiji-Bonn (Germany, 2017)In this, a document was signed to specify the rules of the Paris Agreement.
COP24, Katowice (Poland, 2018). A minimum document was adopted to implement the Paris Agreement starting in 2020.
COP25, Madrid (Spain, 2019)It was held in record time in Madrid due to the social problems present in Chile, the official host. An agreement was signed that lays the foundation for countries to submit more ambitious emissions reduction commitments (NDCs).
COP26, Glasgow (United Kingdom, 2021)This summit should have been held a year ago, but it was delayed due to Covid-19. It agreed to urge countries to introduce more ambitious climate plans, reduce the role of coal as an energy source and gradually eliminate “ineffective” subsidies for fossil fuels.
COP27, Sharm El Sheikh (Egypt, 2022)A decisive consensus was reached on a new ‘Loss and Damage’ fund for vulnerable countries. It also reaffirms States’ commitment to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
COP28, Dubai (United Arab Emirates, 2023)On the first day of the summit, a fund was adopted to compensate the countries most vulnerable to climate change. It was agreed to urge states to begin the transition away from fossil fuels.
emission flies
One of the big challenges of this Baku climate summit is closely related to one of the studies published on Friday, November 8 in a scientific journal. communication earth and environment Of NatureResearchers condemn this Increase in CO₂ emissions from private aviation.
Specifically, they increased by 46% between 2019 and 2023. The results of the analysis also show that some people who regularly use private aviation can produce about 500 times more CO₂ in a year than the average citizen.
This is directly related to COP29 as “significant emissions spikes” occurred around some international events, such as Dubai COP28 Or 2022 World Cup.
The challenge for Baku will therefore be not to exceed the emissions record set by the UAE. Well, climate summit negotiations lose all their meaning if delegates get to them by burning fossil fuels without any control.