A guide to France’s second round of elections that could bring Le Pen’s far right to power

This Sunday, July 7, from 8:00 p.m., Europe will resolve its doubts.

The far-right National Rally party (RN) was the most voted force in the first round of the French legislative elections, held last Sunday, June 30. In second place was the New Popular Front, a coalition of the main left-wing formations, while the center coalition formed around Emmanuel Macron’s party (Together for the Republic) came in third.

This was the first time that the extreme right won the first round of legislative elections in the country.

The far-right and its turncoat allies received 33% of the vote, while the left-wing coalition received 28%. Next was the Presidential Coalition with about 21%, followed by the right-wing party Los Republicans, with 6.6%.

from first to second round

The results of the first round define which candidates received enough votes in each constituency to advance to the final, which will take place this July 7. Only then will the final names of the representatives who will occupy each of the 577 seats in the Assembly be known, which are decided individually in each constituency.

Estimate

Polling institutes have produced estimates of how this could ultimately translate into seats, and the latest report from Ipsos par le Monde gives Le Pen’s party a range of 175 to 205 seats in the National Assembly after the second round, which would not translate into an absolute majority (which is 289). The New Popular Front would have 145 to 175 seats. The presidential bloc would send 118 to 148 representatives (it currently has 250), and the Republicans would move into a range of between 57 and 67 seats.

How can votes be concentrated?

With the resignation of the candidates for the second round and asking to vote for the best list against the national group. The polling institutes themselves explain that these estimates must be taken with caution, even if the “republican coalition” between the left and Macronism has ended up winning 200 triangular duels in constituencies.

Participation will also be a key factor. For example, polls after the first round of the 2022 legislative elections gave the National Group between 10 and 40 seats; the party ultimately won 89 seats.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally, won the first round of the French legislative elections this Sunday. This means it has the highest turnout across France, but much remains to be determined. The exact number of seats for each candidate will not be known until the second round is over and the vote is concentrated against the far right.

What is decided this Sunday?

The 577 deputies who make up the National Assembly, the lower house of the French parliament (the dissolution does not affect the Senate). Each seat is elected from among candidates registered in an individual geographical area (electoral district) through a two-round election system. Candidates who have passed the threshold of 12.5% ​​of registered voters in their constituency and who have decided not to withdraw will enter the second round (this July 7).

In high-participation constituencies it is not uncommon for three or four candidates to qualify for the final. On the other hand, a candidate may be elected in the first round if he or she obtains an absolute majority.

Of the 577 seats at stake in these elections, 76 have already been decided in the first round, in constituencies where a candidate received more than 51% of the vote. Of those, 39 are from the RN; 32 from the New Popular Front; two from the Presidential Coalition; and four from other parties.

Whatever the composition of the new Assembly that emerges from these elections, the Lower House cannot be dissolved again until one year has passed after the elections.

Who are the candidates?

Three large blocks group together most of the candidates participating in these elections. On the one hand, President Macron’s party (Renaissance) and its centrist allies (Modem and Horizons, the party of former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe). If they reconquer the parliamentary majority they obtained in 2022 (245 deputies), it could be assumed that Gabriel Attal would be prime minister again. But everything indicates that he will be far from it.

On the other hand, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally dominates the far-right bloc, coming after a clear victory in the European Parliament elections. In 2022 it obtained 89 deputies, its best historical result. If the far-right bloc wins an absolute majority in these elections, Emmanuel Macron could appoint Jordan Bardella as head of government.

On the left, the progressive bloc formed an electoral alliance – called the New Popular Front – to present a single candidate in most constituencies, a candidate who is supported by four formations (Rebel France, the Socialist Party, Europe Ecology-The Greens and the Communist Party). However, the leaders of the four parties have announced that they will not nominate a candidate for prime minister until the final results of the legislative elections are in this Sunday night.

Why are legislative elections no longer a brake on the extreme right?

Despite reaching the second round of presidential elections three times, Marine Le Pen’s party had only nine MPs as of 2022. Several factors explain why legislative elections pose an obstacle for the far-right party: on the one hand, in the four decades in which Jean-Marie Le Pen was president, the National Front (1972-2011) never achieved the real local implementation necessary to obtain votes in each constituency; on the other hand, the electoral system made it easy to form coalitions in the second round against the rest of the political structures and a party marginalized by most voters.

The context has changed over the past decade. The National Group is fielding increasing numbers of candidates in each electoral appointment and opinion polls show the success of the strategy Standardization Which makes more and more French people consider it a real government option. In the last legislative elections, Le Pen’s party was the second with the most representatives in the Assembly and everything indicates that in this event it will be the party with the most seats.

How is the Prime Minister appointed?

The appointment of the Prime Minister is the exclusive prerogative of the President of the Republic and the French Constitution of 1958 does not establish any limits on who he can appoint to this position. However, under the current system, the Prime Minister has always been a figurehead of the parliamentary majority in the Assembly. To begin with, for a practical reason: the Chamber has the ability to force the resignation of the Prime Minister through a censure motion, if he receives the vote of an absolute majority of the deputies. The person appointed by the President may reject the nomination, in which case the head of state must find a replacement.

Cohabitation?

If an opposition party wins an absolute majority in the Assembly, the president will likely appoint a member of that party as prime minister, even if his or her political orientation differs from that of the president. Under the current political system, France has experienced three cohabitations: the first occurred from 1986 to 1988, when socialist François Mitterrand appointed conservative Jacques Chirac as prime minister; the second during Mitterrand’s second term with fellow conservative Édouard Balladur from 1993 to 1995; and a longer term with Chirac as president and socialist Lionel Jospin as head of government from 1997 to 2002.

Who has the power in sex?

In all matters relating to domestic politics, power is clearly in the hands of the Prime Minister and the Assembly. The President is then pushed into a secondary role; can refuse to sign certain decisions of the executive, but its blocking capacity is limited: for example, in the first cohabitation, Mitterrand refused to sign decrees prepared by the government to privatize certain public companies, in response to which the executive demanded a legislative alternative and they were approved through a bill in the Assembly.

And although in France it is often said that foreign policy and defense are the “reserved areas” of the president, the constitution is not so clear. The head of state is also Chef Des Armees And he is the only person with the ability to decide on the use of nuclear weapons, but the truth is that the government and parliament have control of the budget and the organization of national defense. For practical purposes, the executive can oppose sending military material or troops to other countries, even if the president requests it.

Who decides the government?

The President of the Republic appoints ministers on the proposal of the Chief Executive. Therefore, it is the Prime Minister who decides the composition of his government. In the case of cohabitation, there have been instances where a president has refused to name the Prime Minister’s first choice for certain portfolios related to diplomacy and defense. Traditionally, these positions require a consensus candidate, as a lack of consensus can lead to institutional stagnation.

One possibility that has emerged in some media would be a government of national unity in the event of a highly divided parliament, an unprecedented situation in France under the current system. But in that case the president would have to look for a person who has the support of a coalition of parties with different ideologies, who would be able to form a government that includes ministers from different parties. Such a coalition or candidate is difficult to imagine given the current polarization of French politics.