Acciona’s historic stock market decline following downward earnings forecast revision | Financial markets

Friday saw strong selling in Acciona shares, which are suffering one of their biggest declines in history after cutting 2024 Ebitda forecasts. Shares in family-owned Entrecanales are down 8% on the day, becoming the most bearish on the Spanish stock market today. although he profit warning As analysts had expected, investors did not take the news the same way, causing the stock to register one of the biggest falls in its history after the 17% it fell in a single session at the height of the pandemic outbreak in March 2020.

Yesterday, the services company released a report on market trends for the first quarter of 2024, showing uneven development of its main divisions. The company is reducing its Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) target for 2024, which it set in February last year, which is justified by the negative dynamics of oil prices. pool in Spain thanks to the combination of high availability of wind and hydraulic resources.

Bankinter warns that its renewable energy division (Acciona Energía) is performing worse in the first quarter due to unfavorable power price conditions and is responsible for lowering guidance for the year as a whole.

The fall in electricity prices in the first quarter is greater in Spain (they fell by 46% to €56.0/MWh) than internationally (they fell by 29% to €57.4/MWh) and is a consequence of the sharp fall in prices for electricity in the first quarter. in the pool price during this period (54%). “Lower demand, greater participation of renewable energy sources in the production structure (smaller temperature gap), as well as falling gas prices and CO2 emission rights explain such poor dynamics of the aggregate price in the first quarter,” recall Bankinter experts.

This is the only division that is “inharmonious,” they say from “Renta 4.” The remaining divisions of the group are developing favorably. In the infrastructure division, the portfolio is at an all-time high and represents almost three years of activity. Nordex continues to expand its portfolio and improve profitability. The Real Estate division continues to trend towards improving gross asset value (GAV), with Bestinver delivering near double-digit growth in assets under management (AUM) for the quarter.

Citi, which advises remaining “neutral” on the stock, describes the cut as “puzzling” given that the company did not specify how much it expects Ebitda to fall in fiscal 2024 compared with previous guidance. “The forecast revision is mainly due to lower wind energy production as Acciona Energía chooses not to produce energy during periods of very low prices,” he explains.

In turn, Morgan Stanley, which has an underperform recommendation, does not expect changes in Ebitda targets for 2025-2028.

For other analyst firms, such as investment bank Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the important thing is when the company announces its first asset rotation agreement.

Positivity with value

Bankinter experts emphasize that despite lower expectations, they maintain a buy recommendation as they believe that the second half of the year should be more positive for the group and see room for improvement in valuation.

Among the positive aspects, electricity prices have begun to recover. The pool price now exceeds €70/MWh, compared to an average of €45/MWh in the first quarter (€14/MWh in April).

On the other hand, asset sales “will add value to the renewable energy portfolio. The strong stock market performance of its subsidiary Nordex (+49% since February) will also help in this regard. In addition, the next rate cut will benefit companies with strong investment plans and high debt levels, such as Acciona, they add.

The Bloomberg consensus is 56% recommend buying, 38% say it should be held in a portfolio, and 6% recommend selling. Regarding the average target price, it is set at €151.63, which implies a potential of 33% compared to current listing prices.

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