According to the latest Opsyon survey, a “competitive landscape” with a “modest advantage” for Orsi.
montevideo portal
Consulting firm Opsyon released a new voting intention survey this Thursday, just days before the second round and hours before electoral restrictions begin, for the runoff this Sunday, November 24.
In this case, the Broad Front (FA) candidate, Yamandu Orsi, is ahead in voting intentions by 4.2 percentage points, although he remains within the margin of error of 4.4%.
Voting estimates increased by Option In telenight (Channel 4) predicts that the formula composed of Orsi and Carolina Cosay collects 49.7% of the vote estimate, while Álvaro Delgado and Valeria Ripoll reaches 45.5%. In this sense, the option marks some confidence intervals that, in the case of Orsi, range from 47.5% (minimum) to 51.9% (maximum); In the case of Delgado they range from 43.3% (minimum) to 47.7% (maximum).
The option also indicates that about 4.8% of voters would choose to make it blank or void.
Voting intention – November 2024 (final) Montevideo
Looking at history, both candidates reached maximum voting intention in this last survey. At the same time, the percentage of blank and illegal voters reached a minimum.
Regarding the security of the vote for each presidential candidate, 44% of Orsi’s supporters expressed themselves as confident and 6% as doubtful. In Delgado’s case, 40% expressed confidence in his vote and 6% showed skepticism.
Evolution of voting intentions 2024 – November of Montevideo
“With three days remaining for the runoff, Orsi leads Delgado by four points, creating a competitive and uncertain scenario with a slight advantage for the Frente Amplio candidate,” Opsión said in its analysis of the report. “Globally, the available public opinion evidence has been more favorable towards Orsi than Delgado. The publication states that taking into account the Opsión measurement and other professional surveys released so far, Orsi has ordered voting intentions, which supports the hypothesis that the Frente Amplio candidate will have some confidence in the final stages of the campaign. Comes with benefits.
In any case, the pollsters emphasize that, “With the available evidence, the final outcome is uncertain, even if the candidates are not deployed symmetrically.”
The “segment of voters for the national party’s partners in the Republican coalition (Open Cabildo, Independent Party, Colorado Party and environmentalist Constitutional Party)” is of particular relevance given the runoff between Orsi and Delgado. “We are talking about a segment that represents approximately 21% of the total voters of October and 72% of those who did not vote for the FA or PN in said election,” Opsian said.
Among voters from Republican coalition partners, the vast majority (86%) will vote for Delgado, but 11% of coalition partners (which translates to more than two points of total voters) will vote for Orsi.
Voting intentions (according to voting in the first round) – Montevideo November 2024
“In short, the available evidence regarding Sunday’s outcome is inconclusive. On the one hand, Orsi reaches the final stage with four points ahead of Delgado, an advantage that has not shown relevant oscillations in the last two months of the campaign. However, the possibility of statistical error of distance (which is just over four points), the existence of an electorate that is still undecided or undecided and the ‘double’ effect arising from transfer of voters require a cautious approach. , ‘Soft’ from one candidate to the next,” the publication concludes.
The survey was conducted between 12 and 20 November, with consultations by cell phone. 1,580 cases were considered.
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