“After this wave, a quieter summer”

“It looks like a plateau,” he reflected yesterday, turning the sheet with a graph in his fingers, someone at the Ministry of Health. By now we have learned it: it means that we have reached the plateau, to a stabilization of the growth of cases, which precedes the decrease. Warning: we are still at very high altitude, at almost 190 thousand cases a day. However, the speed of the contagion race has decreased, the numbers now say it. Let’s repeat it: running slower does not mean not running, therefore maximum caution. The slowdown coincides with the isolation of one in 10 Italians: the positives today are 2.4 million, if we add to these the close contacts who must stay at home (think of a family in which there is an infected child) we can hypothesize that at least 6 million citizens, for at least a week, remain isolated (and this is also true by subtracting the quota of those vaccinated with a third dose who can go out). Let’s add the return of the smart working in many situations and thus the less crowded cities are explained. Fewer people on the street, in clubs, in restaurants, at work: it’s a kind of little one lockdown which slows down the circulation of the virus. And if you look at the curves of the curve, there is a clear correlation between growth and some events.

Asymptomatic with booster, reduced quarantine and no tampon. The ISS: “They too are a risk”

The calendar

In mid-December, in one week, we recorded a ninth of the cases of the last seven days. The ratio is 111 thousand compared to almost 900 thousand. The rumba of shopping, dinners, Spritz, Christmas holidays, white weeks begins (even if schools are closed at the same time). And here it goes the surge: immediately after 25 December, in two weeks, cases have already more than quadrupled, with an increase that is unparalleled in this pandemic. Is it all the fault of the parties and the toasts? No. There is a very important cause: it appeared in Italy Omicron which at the beginning of December was not very present, around 1 per cent of total cases, and today it is even above 80. Virologists have explained to us that compared to the Delta (which is more contagious than the Wuhan strain) Omicron has five times higher transmission capacity. America’s foremost virologist, Anthony Maw, he went so far as to say: “Almost all of us will take it, the important thing is to be protected by the vaccine.” The Omicron in Italy find the red carpet. These are the days when it can move more easily. Always the same rumba as before: parties, trips, dinners by Christmas and dinners on December 31st. Last year it went differently because there was no Omicron and above all because for fifteen days Italy was characterized by a national red or orange zone. This year, fortunately, everything was open, but a bill was paid.

In this last week, however, here is the braking: the increase in new cases, compared to the first seven days of January, was slight, plus 20 percent. For the sake of clarity: Positive cases increase and increase more than the previous week, but at a very slow rate. There are three reasons: Omicron, also in other countries, has been shown to cause sharp surges but then to descend fairly quickly, but today we also have the presence of the Delta, in the order of 30-40 thousand cases a day; as mentioned, one in 10 Italians is stuck at home; more generally, when many are infected, the driving force of the pandemic decreases because it struggles to find new attackable subjects. However, the descent should not be taken for granted: the reopening of schools could bring new growth.

Furthermore, as Daniele Pedrini, from the National Institute of Nuclear Physics (Infn) and coordinator of the Covidstat site, explained yesterday, there is also the possibility that more than many swabs we are unable to perform and therefore at some point the number of positives found stops. According to Professor Fabrizio Pregliasco, of the State University of Milan, this could be the last wave, we will see the next one in the autumn: “I say this with caution, but the price we are paying to Omicron, with many people who will contaginate, could drastically reduce the audience of the susceptible. The current stagnation, which we hope will follow a descent, is certainly questioned by the return to school, there will be many Dads ». However, there is one fact that is striking: even yesterday 360 deaths. “We start from a base of up to 220 thousand cases a day, we have to expect it, that will be the last figure to decrease. But I am wary of comparing it with other nations, because the classifications of a death from Covid are never homogeneous. When you go to see the excess of mortality, then in other countries the discourse changes, even a lot “.

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