Analysis There are already 18 million early votes (and counting)

(CNN)- Election Day is two weeks away and millions of Americans vote every day in person or by mailing their ballots.

As of early Tuesday, media were reporting that more than 15 million Americans had voted. When CNN checked early voting data obtained from election officials and the companies Catalyst and Edison Research around noon Tuesday, the number had swelled to more than 18 million. And it will continue to grow. For context, a total of more than 150 million votes were cast in 2020.

This year, in the key state of Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said on CBS News on Sunday that he expects up to 70% of the votes cast in his state before Election Day.

One interesting thing coming from the Catalyst data is that in these early reports, there are some signs that Republicans may be able to narrow the Democratic lead in early voting. According to the first data, more Republicans than Democrats have voted in Nevada and the parties are tied in North Carolina. This may worry Democrats who remember 2020, when Democratic mail-in votes were decisive in Joe Biden’s victory. It could also simply mean that Republicans are doing more to encourage early voting.

In any case, more Republican early votes could reduce what is considered a “blue shift,” when Republican-leaning mail-in votes are followed by Democratic-leaning mail-in votes on Election Day in key states in 2020. -These votes were counted.

For starters, all votes, both those cast early and those cast on Election Day, are counted equally. Moreover, it is a very different year than 2020. That year, far more Americans voted by mail than were expected to do so this year. The vast majority of early voting this year will be cast in person.

Additionally, while former President Donald Trump has not exactly endorsed early voting, Republican strategists supporting him have encouraged their supporters to vote early.

Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but he is on the defensive there this year and is holding several campaign rallies across the state this week.

So far, roughly equal percentages of Republicans, Democrats and independents have voted in North Carolina, whether by mail or in person.

Republican strategist Doug Hay told CNN on Tuesday that he doesn’t see the percentage of Republicans or Democrats in early voting in the state.

“I look at the unaffiliated voters in North Carolina and what they’re going to do,” he said. “That’s what’s going to decide these elections.”

Nearly 1.4 million votes have already been cast in North Carolina, according to CNN data. Compare that figure to the total of about 5.5 million votes cast in 2020.

Hay also argued that in states like North Carolina, where the outcome can be determined by very small margins, it is a few undecided voters who may ultimately define the outcome.

“If you voted early, obviously you’ve already made your decision,” Hay told CNN’s John Berman. He pointed to rallies this week by Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney that could attract remaining undecided voters.

In other words, there is still a lot to do.

More than 1.7 million people voted in Georgia, a significant and growing share of the electorate in a state where just under 5 million votes were cast in the 2020 presidential election, but while Georgia voters were not recorded by the tally gone, there are other data to consider.

In Georgia, more women have voted, making up 55% of early voting so far, than men, making up 45%, according to ballots for which Catalyst has data. Biden won over half of Georgia’s women in 2020, and more than half of voters that year were also women, according to CNN exit polling.

On the other hand, the largest age group to vote early in Georgia is older voters. According to exit polls, Trump won this segment in 2020. Black voters made up about 29% of Georgia’s electorate in 2020, according to exit polls, and represent 31% of voters so far in the state’s early voting in 2024.

In Nevada, where fewer than 1.5 million voters cast a presidential ballot in 2020, just under 250,000 voters have cast a ballot so far in 2024. But according to available data, unlike in Georgia, more men than women have voted.

The opposite is true in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Rust Belt states where more women have voted. Less than 400,000 votes have been cast so far in Wisconsin, compared to more than 3 million votes cast for the 2020 presidential election, compared to nearly 7 million total votes cast in 2020. Nearly one million early votes in Pennsylvania in 2024 Have been inserted.

In Georgia and Pennsylvania, the share of white voters cast is slightly larger than at this point in 2020, while the share of Black voters is slightly smaller. The percentage of Latino and Asian voters remains stable compared to four years ago. In Wisconsin, where 89% of voters so far are white, the racial divide is about the same as it was in 2020.

Apart from the differences in how people will vote this year, it’s difficult to compare 2020 to 2024 because populations in key states and across the country have changed over the past four years, according to CNN senior political analyst Ronald Brownstein.

Brownstein spoke with William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, who argues in a new analysis that the share of college-educated white voters and other voters who support Democrats has increased by about one percentage point nationwide. . The share of white working-class voters, who are increasingly becoming the backbone of the modern Republican Party, has fallen more rapidly in Wisconsin and Michigan than in Pennsylvania.

These seemingly small changes can have a huge impact, Brownstein said.

“It looks like a butterfly effect race… any turbulence in the air could be enough to change the dynamics between these two coalitions in terms of what they want for the country,” Brownstein told CNN. Are completely contradictory and almost equal in size.”

—CNN’s Molly English, Matt Holt and Ethan Cohen contributed to this report.