Asteroids: A gold mine for science, real risks and no fantasy

They Vienna for Sciencebecause they provide a window into the origin of the solar system and the formation of the Earth, but Asteroids also pose a real danger due to the consequences of their collisions.a fatality far removed from the fascination they evoke, thanks in part to science fiction cinema.

To raise public awareness of the risks and the measures that the world would take if there was a credible threat of one of these objects reaching Earth, the United Nations has set June 30 as “International Day Asteroids”, date marking the anniversary of the exposure giant meteorite on Tunguska (Russia), which occurred in 1908 and devastated an area of ​​​​several thousand square kilometers.

It is more than a hundred years, But just eleven years ago, another asteroid – about 20 meters in diameter and 11,000 tons – entered the atmosphere and significantly disintegrated over the sky of Chelyabinsk (Russia), although Other remains, some weighing more than 500 kilograms, reached the ground.

This has served as an impetus for numerous scientific societies and international organizations to recommend unify the international response given the threat that these objects may pose.

Thus was born the International Asteroid Warning Network, attached to the UN, which already has communication plans and protocols advise governments in assessing the potential consequences asteroid impact and support response planning.

Beyond science fiction, NASA has already managed to change the orbit of an asteroid (Dimorphos) by crashing a probe into it, and the world’s major space agencies are already implementing or planning several scientific missions – to study some of these objects and try to bring samples back to Earth – or “planetary defense”.

The next 100 years

Investigator Raul de la Fuente Marcos, from the Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics at the Complutense University of Madrid, stressed that the collision of asteroids and comets with the Earth is very common in cinema and literature, “but this is far from the topic of science fiction”and noted that scientific evidence showed that these events “Happened in the past, are happening now and will happen again in the future.”

From the source is part of the group “Space Astronomy: Research, Instrumentation and Scientific Operations of Space Missions” (AEGORA), is involved in numerous scientific projects to understand the scale that some of these impacts may have on Earth, and in statements to EFE he assured that every year several are found “supercars” that penetrate the atmosphere, explode and disintegrate, or reach the Earth’s soil (meteorites).

The researcher listed several such episodes that have occurred in recent years. “We know this These effects will happen again. Both NASA and ESA (European Space Agency) have warning systems in case of terrestrial impacts” but states that modern forecasting systems indicate that there is no evidence of impact which will have “regional or global” consequences in the near future. a hundred years.

Yes, there will be impacts that may have consequences. “local” and regularly the researcher described in detail and pointed out an object (2010 RF12) about 10 meters in size, which could collide with our planet with a probability of 10 percent between 2095 and 2122.

There are others, also perfectly cataloged, which is much larger in size and capable of causing damage on a regional and even global level, such as asteroid 29075 (1950 DA), which is about 1,300 meters high, but has a 0.38 percent chance of colliding with Earth in 2880; or the famous 490-metre asteroid 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36), although it has a 0.57 percent chance of colliding with our planet between 2178 and 2290.

Is there zero risk?

“The biggest risk does not come from known asteroids. but from those that have yet to be discovered”, the researcher noted.

He recalled that the Chelyabinsk bomb was not discovered before it fell and therefore affected the importance of having science and technology programs and planetary defence missions, but also ‘on-site’ mitigation strategies in the event of an impact, including evacuation plans.

Scientific data shows that there are some 10,000 known asteroids with dimensions greater than 140 meters, and that only 10 percent of those with smaller dimensions are known and only 0.1 percent of similar sized cities like Chelyabinsk (about 20 meters)), and that the atmosphere does not always act as a “protective shield” since larger objects are unlikely to be harmed by contact with it.

Raul de la Fuente He explains it this way: small objects that have a debris-like texture and move at low speeds can easily disintegrate in the atmosphere and turn to dust; On the other hand, large metal objects at high speed (30 to 70 kilometers per second) can reach the ground relatively undamaged and cause large craters.

The scientist considers it “obvious” that the Earth is more protected than in 1908 (Tunguska strike) or than in 2013 (Chelyabinsk), but also that there is still long haul “until we can talk about zero or negligible risk.”

But the science – he said – he is confident that in the near future there will be no impact with negative consequences of a regional or global nature (planetary scale), but there will be collisions that will have consequences at the local level.