at a two-year low, but still with more than 50% of the market in its hands
Data about mortgage market November, published yesterday by the publishing house National Institute of Statistics (INE) show how adjustable rate mortgage are regaining more and more positions to the detriment of fixed ones after changing the bank’s strategy to promote products related to Euribor take advantage of the rise in the rate that began in May 2022 with the European Central Bank (ECB) approving rate hikes, which it has now slowed down. In November, more than half of mortgages (53.2%) were still signed at a fixed rate. But the remaining 46.8%, issued at a floating rate and including a mixed mortgage, represent the highest percentage since January 2021.
In the case of fixed ones, this percentage is slightly more than half. lowest in almost two years. To find a smaller one, you would have to go back to January 2021, when they accounted for 51.7% of the total signed then and managed to beat the variables for the first time since INE has statistics.
Fixed mortgages have replaced 75% new in July 2022. But since then, the bank’s change in strategy to take advantage of the rise in the Euribor rate by tightening its terms and making variable and mixed terms more attractive has changed the mortgage market.
In November, the signing of new mortgage loans for the purchase of housing decreased by one 19.1% compared to the previous year, so far 32,645 operationsThis is the lowest figure for this month since 2020. Thanks to this drop, mortgages have been declining for ten months now.
Stabilization
Real estate portals believe that early 2024 will be the time when it will start to be seen. how the bearish process in the mortgage firm is fading.
He Idealista Mortgages CEO Juan Villenstates that the downward trend “will mean an acceleration in the recovery in mortgage activity”, although always taking into account the evolution of real estate transactions, as “an additional decline in the number of sales and purchases will have a direct impact on the volume of mortgage transactions.”
Likewise, Fotocasa Research Director Maria Matos, assures that despite the fall in the number of mortgage underwritings in November, forecasts for the end of 2023 are “very encouraging”, with around 385,000 mortgage reliefs expected to be reached, supported by a monthly decline for the first time. at the average interest rate in November. “This is a sign that banking structures are also beginning to adapt to the Euribor easing forecast,” he points out.
From General Council of Official Associations of Real Estate Agents in Spain They claim that in the November data we are already starting to see “clear trend change” to the balance between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages due to forecasts for rate cuts in 2024.
From my side, Pisos.com Research Director Ferran Fontindicates that the evolution of the mortgage firm and sector in the coming months will be marked by the development of the Housing Act and the powers demonstrated by the new Ministry of Housing and Urban Programs, as well as the interest rate policy of the Central Bank. European, for which interest rates are the “main tool” in the fight against inflation.