Attack against Trump temporarily eases pressure on Biden’s candidacy | USA Elections

The President of the United States, Joe Biden, attended mass on Saturday afternoon in Rehoboth Beach (Delaware), where he has a rest home. At 6:10 p.m., shots were fired at his predecessor Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, about 500 kilometers away, changing the news cycle. On leaving the church, Biden was asked if he had been informed of the assassination attempt on Trump. “No,” he said briefly. Soon, this will be his priority and not the call on congressmen to confirm his candidacy. As an indirect result, the attack has eased the pressure on Biden’s re-election bid, at least temporarily.

The assassination attempt against Trump is one of those news stories that blew everything up. Right from the beginning, when it was still unclear what had happened, all the media attention was focused on the sounds that sounded like a gunshot attack, as later confirmed, and how the Secret Service took the former president out with some blood on his face. Later, when the assassination attempt, the death of a rally attendee and the shooter were confirmed, the news became increasingly murky. And, by the way, no one talked about whether Biden is the right person to become the Democratic candidate in the November 5 election.

The president had three appearances in different formats in 24 hours, the first, on Saturday, at his beach house, and the other two, on Sunday, at the White House. The last speech was a prime-time speech, the format chosen by presidents for moments of particular gravity. The Gulf War, the fall of Saddam Hussein, the 9/11 attacks, Hurricane Katrina, the coronavirus pandemic and the financial crisis are among them. From the Oval Office, he reiterated the call for unity in the previous appearance and said Americans should resolve their differences “at the ballot box, not with bullets” (taking advantage of the phonetic similarity in English between the ballot boxes). ballot paper, and pills, tablets).

In a reference to the partisan confrontation, Biden also called for “lowering the temperature” of American politics, but somehow, this need to calm things down also works in his favor. The atmosphere is not conducive to the challenge and confrontation he has been facing since the disastrous debate against Trump in Atlanta on June 27, in which his slips, his hesitations, his incomplete sentences, his cough and his hoarse voice raised questions about his ability to become the Democratic nominee.

In recent days, no congressman has joined the list of those asking the president to resign to run for re-election. Biden postponed his visit to Austin (Texas) that he had planned this Monday, one of those in which the president of the United States somehow mixes the official agenda with the electoral campaign. He has returned to the fray with two events in Las Vegas (in Nevada, one of the decisive states in the election) this Monday and this Tuesday, one aimed at capturing the black vote and the other at capturing the Latino vote.

The president has a double race against time. Implicit is that which marks him as the first 80-year-old president in history, who would be 86 years old when he completes a hypothetical second term. A short distance separates him from the presidential election on November 5 or the even shorter Democratic National Convention, which will announce the party’s candidate and which will take place in Chicago (Illinois) from August 19 to 22. Time plays in his favor in that short career. The closer the convention gets, the more difficult it will be to force a non-traumatic alternative to the president’s re-election.

Meanwhile, Biden’s every move will continue to be carefully scrutinized for signs of cognitive decline or frailty. The president knows that if episodes like the Atlanta debate are repeated, his position will become untenable. So far, however, he has emerged relatively well from his recent appearances. He survived the NATO summit, including a nearly hour-long press conference in which he answered 19 questions and despite the name dance (Putin-Zelensky and Trump-Harris). He then gave impromptu speeches to voters in front of hundreds of supporters at a roadside bar and at a rally in Detroit. This Monday he was tested again with an interview with NBC’s star presenter Lester Holt.

In any case, the agenda has changed. And just as Biden has responded to Trump’s attack with a call for unity across the country, his call to heal divisions within his own party is gaining strength.

In prediction markets, Biden’s option of withdrawing from the race is looking less and less likely. On Polymarket, quotes even indicated a 75% probability that he would leave on July 3, the day he leaves the new York Times He published that he was considering doing so. With the White House’s denials and the president’s intervention in various events, these odds decreased. Before the attack against Trump, they were around 50%, like a heads or tails decision. After the shots, they dropped to 33%, but the situation is changing.

While Biden’s chances of retaining the candidacy and going to the polls on November 5 have gotten stronger, his chances of winning the election on that day have gotten lower. The same market gives Trump a 71% chance of being elected, while Biden has only a 17% chance. There are still 113 days until the election. Everything can change.

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