Banning tobacco for young people born between 2006 and 2010 would prevent more than a million deaths.

Recent initiatives announced in New Zealand and the UK to ban the sale of tobacco to minors born after a certain date have raised the possibility of using this strategy to prevent lung cancer deaths. The work was published this Thursday in the magazine Public Health Lancet put the numbers to measure and estimated that banning tobacco for people born between 2006 and 2010 would prevent 1,186,500 premature deaths from this cause in 285 countries between now and 2095.

The work, led by researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), as well as other international partners, suggests that creating a tobacco-free generation could prevent almost half of future deaths from lung cancer. in men and about a third in women. In addition, if this measure were implemented, about two thirds of all lung cancer deaths could be avoided.

Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death worldwide. It is the largest risk factor for lung cancer and is estimated to cause more than two-thirds of the 1.8 million deaths from the disease each year. “Our model shows how much there is to gain for governments that are considering ambitious plans to create a tobacco-free generation,” says Julia Rey Brandaris from the University of Santiago de Compostela (USC). “This could not only save many lives, but also significantly reduce the burden on health systems to treat and care for people with health problems as a result of smoking.”

Creating a tobacco-free generation could prevent nearly half of future lung cancer deaths in men and about a third in women.

Currently, no country has laws prohibiting the sale of tobacco to youth. New Zealand’s innovative law banning the sale of tobacco products to people born in 2009 or later was recently repealed and the UK is considering introducing it from 2027.

Greater effect in poor countries

One of the main points of the study is that in low- and middle-income countries, where the youth population is growing rapidly, the impact of tobacco bans could be even greater. “Smoking also remains very common in many of these countries, while rates have declined in many high-income countries,” says Isabelle Surjomataram of IARC. “While we must redouble our efforts to eliminate smoking in all parts of the world, this is especially important in low- and middle-income countries.”

Smoking also remains very common in many of these countries, while rates have declined in many high-income countries.

Isabel Surjomataram
— IARC

The authors acknowledge some limitations of their study. There was limited data, for example, on the incidence of lung cancer among people who had never smoked, some of it from before the 2000s, which could have affected the estimates as rates could have changed due to improved medical care. And the forecasts also did not take into account the use of e-cigarettes.

Future lung cancer mortality rates were predicted using historical data from 82 countries recorded in the WHO mortality database, and the number of preventable lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking was calculated using lung cancer mortality data among never smokers from a previous study.

1,186,500 preventable deaths

Although it seems a bit abstract, the figure of 1,186,500 premature deaths refers to children and adolescents who will turn 18 before 2029 and who will die from this cause in the future if their involvement in tobacco use continues at the same rate, recalls Josep Maria Suelvez . , Head of the Prevention and Control Service of Smoking and Injuries of the Public Health Agency of Catalonia and Member of the Board of Directors of the National Committee for the Prevention of Smoking.

In Spain, where tobacco causes more than 50,000 deaths annually, most of these measures are necessary.

Josep Maria Suelvez
— Member of the Catalan Public Health Agency and the National Committee for Smoking Prevention.

In his opinion, one cannot rely solely on the effectiveness of a ban on the sale of tobacco to people born after a certain date, but must continue to promote other measures with well-proven effectiveness, such as increasing the price of tobacco products. , introduction of plain packaging, expansion of places where smoking is prohibited. “In Spain,” says Suelves in a statement to the SMC, “where tobacco is responsible for more than 50,000 deaths annually, most of these measures are necessary and must be urgently implemented, as demanded by the scientific community and as stated by government agencies. ”

In fact, according to simulation results published in Public Health Lancet this Thursday. These analyzes show that accelerating efforts to eliminate smoking worldwide would increase life expectancy by one year among men and 0.2 years among women and prevent millions of premature deaths, resulting in 876 million years of life lost.