BRICS: How powerful are the countries of this group and which countries will join it on January 1?
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The last BRICS meeting held in Johannesburg in August brought many changes in the grouping.
At some point in 2021, the emerging countries that make up the BRICS grouping – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – ceased to be an aspirational block and became a full-fledged geopolitical block in the international community.
This was the year when they surprised with their economic progress and GDP of BRICS overtakes its G7 counterparts In terms of purchasing power parity as a percentage of global GDP.
The G7 is composed of the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. It is an organization that includes The world’s seven largest “advanced” economiesWhich dominate world trade and the international financial system.
And despite the fact that BRICS includes major world powers such as China and Russia and countries of immense importance on their continents such as South Africa and Brazil, its members complain that the nations The West controls important organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Who lend money to countries.
Therefore, they have not only demanded “greater voice and representation” for emerging economies, but they will do so by January 1, 2024. expand the number of nations Who form groups.
From that date, the multilateral bloc will gain five new member states: Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and United Arab EmiratesKey countries when it comes to setting international oil and gas prices.
“An expansion in the number of members was to be expected. Perhaps Would reinforce the importance of the Group as a forum for geopolitical debate, particularly in the Middle Eastwhere most of the new members come from and where China has tried to increase its influence,” Michael Langham, emerging markets analyst at Aberdeen, tells BBC Mundo.
“It can also be anticipated that the Group will use its expansion as a tool to influence international political debate and the development of international institutions.” Outside G7, G20 and UN“, Add.
Argentina’s transformation
At the summit last August, Argentina was invited to join the group, but Xavier Miley’s victory in the presidential election changed things. The new president has announced that he will not attend it.
This new administration”does not consider incorporation appropriate “The Republic of Argentina will join BRICS as a full member by January 1, 2024,” Miley said in an official letter addressed to the bloc.
“This is in line with his stated wish Break political relations with China, “Miley supports prominent figures of the American right and is friendly with them,” recalls experts from the America Society Analysis Center.
BRICS takes decisions once a year and members of the group take turns holding the presidency for a year.
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The character of this group is anti-Western.
In search of a new global order
He China’s main objective The aim of the platform is to “increase its power and influence, particularly in Africa,” says Professor Padraig Carmody, an expert in development geography at Trinity College Dublin. “He wants to be the leading voice of the Global South.”
But Russia, the other great world power in BRICS, has a different objective.
,Russia sees it as part of its fight against the West, “They believe their membership will help them overcome the sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine,” says Creon Butler of Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
On the other hand, membership of Iran may increase the anti-West character of BRICSButler says.
No name has been announced for the expanded group, but it is believed It could be “BRICS+”.
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Many members of the bloc have power over the price of oil.
Why are BRICS important?
“According to IMF estimates, the BRIC countries will represent 33.6% of world production in 2028Compared to 27% for the G7,” explains Claudio Pirrone, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst from Singapore.
The total population of the extended group is about 3.5 billion people, or 45% of the population World.
Overall its economy is worth more than $28.5 trillion, which is about 28% of the world economy.
BRICS also produce around 44% of world’s crude oil.
“We believe that exporters strategic raw materials, such as Brazil, They have an advantage. And although China is gaining importance in investment and trade, the West remains more important for almost all emerging markets,” says Piron.
on many occasions Saudi Arabia and Russia have used their power To cut oil production.
“This reflects the potential and new engagement of existing BRICS economies Make your voice heard by controlling energy prices And reminding us how thin the line is between commodities and politics,” explains Dan Scott, chief economist at Vontobel Multi Asset.
differences too
But everything within the group is not a coincidence.
Although there are clear general objectives such as Increase your geopolitical influence, reshape and challenge institutions And undermining existing global practices and the use of the US dollar, not everyone has the same geopolitical objectives.
“In fact, Brazil, India and South Africa have opposed the grouping, viewing it as a direct challenge to the West., And in the case of India, there are concerns that the grouping is a vehicle for China to extend its influence. “Expanding membership would add further complexity and limit the potential for any major reform plan to emerge from the group,” Langham says.
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In 2023, India will overtake China to become the most populous country in the world.
“In this sense, we hope that The focus has been primarily on expanding trade and financial ties. Among members, that includes greater use of local currencies, and is likely to challenge existing international practices, which are seen as favorable to developed markets.
A currency that replaces the dollar?
Nations often use the US dollar to trade with each other.
prominent politicians of Brazil and Russia have suggested creating an alternative currency To reduce his dominance. However, it was not discussed at this year’s summit in Johannesburg.
It would be impractical for the BRIC countries to create a common currency because their economies are very differentProfessor Carmody says.
According to BRIC leaders, the dollar is no longer playing its role as a global benchmark and is partly responsible for global economic instability.
“The concern is that The group’s challenge to dollar hegemony now seems exaggeratedKeeping in mind that members’ geopolitical objectives compete with each other and they are unwilling to give up control over exchange rates and/or monetary policy,” Langham explains.
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Russia believes its membership helps it overcome sanctions imposed after the attack on Ukraine
How will Russia use its BRICS chairmanship in 2024?
Russia will host the summit of the block in Kazan in October. Vladimir Putin has said that he would use the presidency to:
- Enhance the role of BRICS in the international financial system.
- Develop cooperation between banks and expand the use of BRICS currencies.
- To promote cooperation between tax and customs authorities.
“With BRICS, Russia would like to show the West that it still has friends and allies in the rest of the world“Despite their invasion of Ukraine,” says Irene Miah of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank.
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