CaixaBank study highlights Spain’s strong growth and places it above the eurozone
CaixaBank Research forecasts that Spain’s economic growth rate will slow slightly from the 2.8% expected this year.up to 2.3% by next 2025. Despite the slowdown, the organization forecasts that growth will be at a “dynamic pace and much higher than the 1.3% expected in the eurozone.”
In its latest published economic outlook report CaixaBank Research noted that this year It was better than expected and set the stage for the start of 2025 from the starting point solid from a macroeconomic approach. According to the progress of the enterprise in mid-Octobertheir forecast is GDP in 2024 will rise about 2.8% over 2023, more than one point higher than expected at the start of the year.
However, third quarter GDP data (0.8% quarterly and 3.4% annualized) released National Institute of Statistics (INE) This creates upside risks to the 2.8% growth forecast for 2024, according to CaixaBank Research.
Forecasts for 2025
Next year, experts predict that the economic growth rate will decrease slightly to 2.3%, which is dynamic and much higher than the 1.3% expected in the eurozone. Third-quarter GDP data also introduces some upside risks to this forecast.
“The Spanish economy faces 2025, which is expected to be dynamic again thanks to private domestic demand, which will play a big role,” highlighted in the report. The labor market will continue to be a driver of growth, with average net creation of just over 400,000 jobs forecast in 2025 and a slight decline in the unemployment rate, elements that will create more wealth and strengthen the economy, according to CaixaBank Research. house consumption.
Cancellation of tax measures
On the other hand, the organization expects that although tourism will contribute very strongly to growth in 2025, its contribution will be three-tenths less than in 2024.. “The sector is expected to normalize its growth rate. given the high levels achieved, although it will continue to live in a pleasant state and will have important levers for its growth,” the report explains.
For my part, the contribution of the foreign sector will be more modest than in 2024, partly due to a recovery in imports due to increased domestic demand. Finally, eliminating tax credits for energy, food, and transportation credits would also have a small downward impact on economic growth because it would increase inflation of these items.