Unless the trend changes in its favor, it is unlikely that the manatee Carlos Beltran get elected this Tuesday to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Beltrán would be the sixth Puerto Rican to be elected after Roberto Clemente, Orlando ‘Peruchin’ Cepeda, Roberto Alomar, ivan rodriguez Y edgar martinez.
But the trend of the votes made public does not favor Beltrán, let alone the voting history that says that candidates tend to lose votes on ballots not published by their writers.
Ballot #185 is from Maureen Mullen. No adds or drops for returning candidates and no first-time candidates selected. Helton climbs back to 80% with this ballot.
In the Tracker: https://t.co/RUHpeYKr8N pic.twitter.com/9bvtYjiyl4
—Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) January 23, 2023
On published ballots, Beltrán hovers around 55 and 56 percent of the vote, short of the 75 percent he needs to be elected to the Hall. 55 to 56 percent of it is compiled and published by compiler Ryan Thibodaux. That percentage comes from the first ballots made public. Up to 396 ballots will be submitted.
And the history, since Thibodaux began counting the ballots, including editions in which Puerto Ricans have been elected; he says Hall candidates see their percentages drop when unpublished ballots by their writers are counted.
Therefore, unless Beltrán unexpectedly achieves favor in the unpublished ballots, his percentages should drop below 55 percent when all the elections are revealed this Tuesday and the Puerto Rican will have to go to a second year of eligibility to achieve the favor of the voters.
It can also happen with the two players who this morning have the numbers to enter: Todd Helton Y Scott Rolenwho are around 80 percent of the votes.
Still, Beltran’s 55 percent is good considering he’s in his first year of eligibility and fresh taint from the sign-stealing scandal he was part of in the 2017 season with the Houston Astros.
The stain could pay him the same way it paid Alomar when he went into his first year of eligibility in 2010 with the on-field crash march he had with umpire John Hirschbeck. Alomar was elected the following year.