When Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border, some people thought it might lead to an international conflict. While it is true that many European VCs participated merely as spectators of the advances of “bad forces”, as Josep Borrell, the European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs, described them, population pressure and Above all, the digital diplomacy deployed by the then-unknown Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky significantly changed the situation.
Ukraine received the support of a large part of the international society and Russia failed to carry out its sinister plan.
While it is true that the front in Ukraine has been closed since September 2022, this does not mean that Russia has given up conquering this country and the territory it considers its “near abroad”. Indeed, threats against various European countries have increased in recent months.
In addition to these threats, Russian forces have taken action in Spain, killing one of the most famous dissidents on the Kremlin spectrum: helicopter pilot Maxim Kuzminov. Kuzminov was assassinated on 18 February by members of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation in an urbanization in the Alicante city of Villajoyosa.
Such actions are not an isolated incident. Unfortunately, there have been many examples of covert operations by Russian agents on European soil. One of the scenarios where Russian spies are most active is Germany, which has led authorities to neutralize at least three officers working for Moscow (Thomas H., Carsten L. and Arthur E.).
Russian citizen detained in Latvia
Another particularly relevant case was that of Latvian MEP Tatjana Zdanoka, who, in addition to representing the Europeans, was an FSB agent.
Also in Latvia, on January 26, a Russian citizen was detained who was identifying military objectives in Latvia for a future Russian operation similar to the incident in Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Other similar cases are those of Vyacheslav Morozov (detained in Estonia), Yuri Mel (detained in Lithuania) and nine Russians detained in Poland for surveillance of Polish railways. All of them carried out Kremlin-appointed operations that would be crucial in a future Russian offensive.
In addition to these intelligence operations, the Kremlin has also taken military action in NATO countries. In September 2023, the remains of a Russian drone were found in the Romanian city of Plauru, which could trigger the activation of NATO Article 5.
On December 29, 2023, a Russian missile flew over Polish airspace and on February 7, the remains of another Russian device fell a few meters from the border.
Anticipation of war between Russia and NATO
All these actions resemble what happened in Ukraine just before the war, which leads us to think that, if Kiev fails to stop the Russians, Poland, the Baltic countries, Romania or Norway will be the next targets of Russian imperialism. Can happen.
Far from speculative, what we are talking about is one of the scenarios that German military intelligence is considering and which was leaked to the press a few weeks ago. The report, titled “Defense of the Alliance 2025”, presents a scenario of war between NATO forces and Russia in the summer of 2025.
This sequence will be very similar to what happened in Ukraine and will start in the summer of 2024 with a political uprising in the Baltic countries, using spies like Morozov, Mail or Zhdanoka and, above all, the Russian minorities living there.
In addition to this tool, Russia will launch cyber attacks on key Western servers (September-October 2024) while carrying out military maneuvers -ZAPAD-, as it did in Ukraine in 2021.
With NATO blindsided by cyber attacks, Baltic governments interrogated for their actions against Russian minorities’ protests and with the power vacuum created by the US election (whoever wins), Russia is increasingly attempting to deter the Baltic states. Will try. This is Suwalki corridor.
With the Baltics cut off from land, NATO could do nothing to protect them. It would be forced to activate Article 5 and, therefore, go to war with Russia, a scenario that would come in the summer of 2025 according to this document.
In addition to this scenario proposed by German intelligence, many European leaders are already talking about armed confrontation with Russia. In May 2022, Carl-Oskar Bohlin (Swedish Minister of Civil Protection) argued that “there could be war in Sweden.”
“The risk is low now, but that could change.”
Also, General Wayne Eyre, Chief of the Canadian General Staff, said that although “the threat of Russian aggression is very low right now (2022), that doesn’t mean it won’t change.”
The head of Norwegian intelligence, Nils Andreas Stensons, recently expressed a similar line. When asked about the possibility that we are facing a third world war, he replied: “We have to be honest and admit that this is a more political security situation. Dangerous”. This should be framed in the context in which Russia has threatened Norway to invade the Svalbard Islands in order to marginalize (according to Moscow) the Russian minority living there.
In addition, last year Russia conducted the largest naval maneuvers in the Arctic in the last 30 years, which makes us think that the future may be complicated.
All these events led important military officers such as General Sanders, the Chief of the British General Staff, or his Romanian counterpart, General Vlad, to call for mobilization to control Russia.