CSIC Study Opens New Ways to Predict the Duration of Future Volcanic Eruptions

CSIC Study Opens New Ways to Predict the Duration of Future Volcanic Eruptions

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Category: Bonita Island

Created on Thursday, May 30, 2024

Author: Al Time

Photography by Cesar Hdez Regal

Researchers from the Supreme Council for Scientific Research (CSIC) carried out a study around the La Palma volcano, the results of which promise to represent progress in predicting volcanic eruptions. Using a method based on analyzing the shape change the island experienced during the eruption, scientists were able to estimate its duration from about 42 days before the cessation of volcanic activity. Members of the Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM) and the National Geographical Institute (IGN) contributed to the methodology and implications of this work, published in the prestigious journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The work confirmed the importance of correct interpretation of data obtained in real time through volcanic monitoring networks. These instrument networks can track minute changes in terrain shape with a high level of precision, even down to the subcentimeter, providing key information for understanding the evolution of an eruption’s power system. In this sense, in the case of La Palma, the good configuration of the network of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations deployed on the island of IGN allowed the acquisition of exceptional time series that, together with the conceptualization and modeling carried out by CSIC and UPM, revealed how the magma pressure decreased along as the eruption progresses.

“The simulation of the deceleration of volcanic compression that we calibrated during the eruption allowed us to estimate the end of deformation, which, following some fairly basic hypotheses about the physics of volcanoes, would coincide with the end of the eruption,” says Pablo J. Gonzalez, a researcher in the volcanology group at the Natural Products Institute and Agrobiology (IPNA-CSIC) Tenerife.

The main hypothesis of the work was that the volcano’s feeding system was closed, that is, the dynamics of the eruption corresponded to a simple evacuation of fluids from the magma chamber, in which there were no new magmatic entrances located at greater depths. “A posteriori analysis of the deformation slowdown process allowed us to confirm that this stabilization occurred 38-40 days before the end of the eruption. This analysis and verification that the rate of deceleration and the volume of erupted lava If the volcano coincided, it indicated that the mass of the feeding system did not increase during the eruption,” explains Maria Charco, researcher at the Institute of Geological Sciences (IGEO, CSIC-UCM) in Madrid.

The study’s findings suggest some important parameters for future research, such as the relationship between the pressure loss when an eruption stops and the overpressure at the start. This percentage could be useful in making predictions about the duration of future eruptions at La Palma and at more volcanoes in other areas of the planet.

Forecasting volcanic eruptions – an unresolved issue

Currently, predicting volcanic eruptions is one of the most important scientific tasks of modern volcanology, since there is no knowledge or accurate tools with which to predict future changes in the behavior of volcanoes. While much progress has been made in predicting the onset of eruptions based on observations of seismicity and ground deformation, there has not been as much progress in other types of predictions, such as the overall duration of the process. Knowing this information in advance is key for eruptions like La Palma, as lava flows are one of the main geological hazards. Knowing how long lava flows have been feeding would allow us to know in advance how far they are likely to travel, and therefore more effectively reduce the risks associated with them.