Daring Reflections #22: Luis vs. Leonel: scenarios of 24

It is necessary to clarify beforehand that the polls are a portrait of the moment, that in such a changing world, not precisely what we see today has to be like that tomorrow, electorates are pendulum, so they can change their decision for multiple reasons, both exogenous as endogenous, And why do the citizens of the present not mortgage their support or their fidelity to any leadership permanently?

Leadership such as Balaguer, Bosch, and especially that of my father, Dr. Peña Gómez, are in frank extinction, since they decisively affected the masses until their last breaths of life, that today is simply almost impossible, all because the paradigms or examples to be emulated by the members of society have a lot to do with the concept that prevails preferably, in the habits and criteria of our digital citizenships, life Light or the empire of the trivial.

Today’s influencers are not the political leaders, they are more involved in other activities, in music, in sports or in the addictive social networks, there is permanent questioning of politicians and the idea persists in the popular imagination that they do not have a real vocation for service nor do they identify with the causes of the people, and that these are the worst rogues in our society.

That is why no one can sing victory at such a far contest, as the one of the election appointment of the year 2024, Until just a decade ago, what would happen in the next election was predictable and even predictable. Today it is highly risky to ensure it, because many things are influencing the inconsistent or variable spirit of the person who decides: the sovereign.

The reason that will have the most weight towards the upcoming elections will be the high cost of living, since if the inflationary spiral becomes unstoppable, the current tenants of the National Palace will surely lose power, but it is also necessary to take into account that if the The crisis deepens too much, this could also affect the traditional opposition leadership, giving way to a populist adventurer who could substitute the prudent discourse of the current party system actors, and we would unexpectedly enter the fertile ground of anti-politics and that of the fiery anti-system that they would offer to the people, erase the status quo existing.

Although some readers might think that we entered the field of speculationwhat we are seeing in the electoral processes carried out in our continent confirms to us that this is a possibility to take into account, but nevertheless today what the polls are presenting is that there would be an electoral duel between Luis Abinader and Leonel Fernández.

The traditional erosion in the popularity of governments has been after two years of administration, apparently the Government of Change is taking place before, becauseand the mega crisiswhich is managing with its terrible consequences, is undermining the popular esteem of the official perremeismo.

I have seen several surveys, including the one paid for by important business groups, and all of them show a growing and progressive support of the citizens for the presidential candidacy of the leader of the pueblistas, the three-time president, Leonel Fernández.

What is producing the meteoric popular support for Leonel? it is easy to interpret, since a large part of the electorate is looking for experienced hands, a true savior, to whom to hand over the leadership of the State from 2024, there is no doubt that the former president is seen by a large part of the population , as the one who knows the most about crisis management and the efficient management of public affairs, this is his main and special condition, which has triggered support in favor of Dr. Fernández.

For his part, our itinerant president Abinader makes unheard of efforts to maintain good levels of citizen acceptance, only that the high prices of the basic food basket and fuels play against him daily and are slowly but steadily losing support in the electorate. national.

The average of the surveys carried out oscillates between 40 to 43% support for Luis, and 30 to 32% for Leonel, which suggests a possible second-round scenario, but apparently the opposition would come out ahead in it, because the PLD would remain the third political force, and therefore would not qualify in the ballot, so it would have no other option in the second round than to support former President Leonel Fernández through an agreement.

Luis and the PRM apparently only have one card, trying to win in the first round, which is very intricate if the economic crisis remains for a long time as they believe it will happen according to the criteria of renowned economists.

As we well expressed in the previous article, inflation is the real opposition, that if the crisis is temporary and President Abinader can weather the storm, he can recover towards the 2024 elections and stand up to the opposition with a strengthened candidacy for re-election, but if the crisis persists beyond the year 2023, no matter what the PRM do, they will be removed from power in a single administration, which would confirm bad luck , streak or karma that chases whites.

Leonel is called to lead a great opposition alliance, in which a considerable number of parties and movements participate, above all, because he will have to try to ride the PLD, the PRD and the Reformist Party in that triumphant hooligan.

For his part, Luis will need to quickly reconnect with the basis of the PRM, his party, who feel relegated, because they have not been taken into account in their own government, and also try to retain the vote of the hundreds of thousands of beneficiaries of the State’s social programs, something that will require a substantial increase in order to achieve this. of the allocation to them, because with the thousand and odd that they are given now, today they are only barely enough to eat badly for two days, and with this they will not achieve it.

Of course, something that still favors those who position themselves early in the electoral preferences is that due to the very opportunistic idiosyncrasy of the Dominican, people begin early to align themselves with those who may be possible presidents, the other undoubted advantage is that these, to those who mark the polls, is that the businessmen and the acute electoral investors give him their financial support.

The other undeniable advantage of Luis and Leonel is that they have the ability to build, through their parties or alliance that supports them, the power to consolidate a solid electoral machinery to manage, locate, transport and take care of the vote in their favor.

Luis and Leonel start as favorites in this race, which more than speed is resistance, because the existing global mega-crisis does not hold anything good for it, especially for poor countries on a planetary scale; It can be said of both, that it is the commitment to the traditional, to the sensible, because what is least convenient for the country is that an adventurer appears, who comes to turn the country upside down, with crazy proposals that the only thing they will achieve is produce a fragmentation and confrontation in the Dominican social body.

The populists offer heaven to the unsuspecting voters, so that they vote for them and put them in trouble to win with their management, the economy and the social stability of their respective countries when they come to power, that is why the safe paths are those that point to the real agents of change, but within the system, never outside it.

President Abinader will try to convince the people that the Change must remain in the Government; and Leonel for his part must do the sameinsisting on demonstrating that life was better in his governments and that he left a plethora of works, infrastructure and social programs from end to end of the Republic.

It is that two different visions of the state administration will face each other, and everything seems to indicate that each one of us will take sides in one direction or another, asking the Most High to prevent the arrival of an irresponsible outsider, that everything comes to flutter, which would make us start here, as it is in a good part of the world; a new era, of uncertainty.

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