First polls show government coalition will lose majority in Japan. international
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will win this Sunday’s election, but will suffer a major setback, according to exit polls published by the main local media. The conservative government of 67-year-old Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will not be able to reach an absolute majority on its own. And it would also be difficult to reach the 233 seats with its traditional coalition partner, Komeito, with which it could gain control of the 465-seat lower house, according to a survey by public broadcaster NHK.
If the outcome is confirmed, it would be a blow to the formation that has ruled Japan without interruption since its establishment in 1955, and would have to seek new partners to remain at the head of the executive. Will be forced. Before the election, the LDP alone held 256 seats, giving it control of the most powerful House of the Diet (the Japanese Parliament).
The opposition center-left Democratic Constitutional Party (PCD) will significantly strengthen its presence in the House of Representatives. The party, led by Yoshihiko Noda, another veteran of Japanese politics who served as prime minister between 2011 and 2012, will take strong momentum in the 2021 elections with dozens more seats than expected, according to NHK., Although it is unlikely that he will have the ability to articulate a government alternative, the outcome will balance the strength of the opposition against the PLD which has exercised almost unquestioned power since 2012. For the first time since then, this psychologist can break the three-digit barrier in the number of delegates.
While the official count is still underway – final results are not expected until early Monday – the PLD has already shown signs of concern. After voting closed, Ishiba assured in statements to local media, “Severe justice has been done to us.”
In any case, the scope of the surveys is very broad. Reports published by national network NHK gave the LDP and Komeito alliance between 174 and 254 seats out of 465; Meanwhile, the main opposition party, PCD, will get 128 to 191 seats.
Shinjiro Koizumi, secretary of the ruling party’s election committee, also acknowledged in an appearance after the polls closed, “The situation is very complicated and it is my responsibility.” In this unlikely scenario, the alliance will have to add a new partner to rule. Analysts are already pointing to other structures, such as the Democratic Party for the People, given their similarities on issues such as defense, which could lead to a review of Japan’s constitutional pacifism.
Ishiba arrived with an independent vote this Sunday, marked by the long shadow of the illegal financing scandal that has rocked his party. Some analysts speculate that the poor result could force the LDP to seek an alternative face to lead the government, which would make Ishiba the prime minister with the shortest mandate in post-war Japanese history. The decision is still up in the air, but it could happen: the PLD is a political force made up of disparate factions in constant conflict, and is accustomed to elections amid scandals in which it appeals to the loyalty of voters who won, often, With concrete measures to support sectors, regions or groups.
Their basket of voters is traditionally loyal. Be it in the countryside or the city. Izamu Kambe, a 68-year-old retired factory worker, commented after voting in the morning in the rural town of Nanmoku last Thursday that he had once again chosen the usual ticket: the LDP. “The opposition gives a feeling of weakness,” he said.
Holding his bicycle, Shimbo, a 21-year-old chemistry university student who still lives with his parents, admits this Sunday that he too voted for the PLD “for stability.” They have just cast their vote at a polling station in Hachioji, on the outskirts of Tokyo. In his opinion, corruption is not a sufficient argument for changing parties.
“They’re trash and we have to clean them up!” Emiko Ogahara shouts, microphone in hand, outside Hachioji Station. He does not demand to vote for anyone, so as not to violate the rules on election day, but he reminds passers-by to exercise their right and in no case should they vote for the PLD – “trash” – or those related to it. Don’t do this for. Independent candidates, in part due to the irregular financing conspiracy that broke out the previous year, forced several ministers to resign, and so strained the popularity of the then Chief Executive, Fumio Kishida, that he ultimately decided to leave office in the summer. Following his departure, Ishiba took the reins of the Liberal Democrats in late September, becoming Prime Minister on 1 October, forming a government and immediately calling early elections to take advantage of the surge in popularity.
Voting day passed with hardly any surprises in the well-organized archipelago, although it has been controversial that 40% of the country’s polling stations have decided to move the poll closing time earlier, something that is possible, but which the opposition has criticized. It is seen as an attempt to reduce participation that theoretically benefits it. Final turnout has not yet been published, but about 21 million people have voted in advance in recent days, the second highest number in history.
Many voters had already anticipated a decline. “We are going to lose seats because of the money issue,” admitted a government party voter who attended one of Ishiba’s closing speeches on Saturday afternoon in the popular Ebisu area in the center of Tokyo. Under heavy police deployment, and surrounded by modern buildings and bright lights, the Prime Minister asked for votes for the candidate in that electoral district, and even asked for further participation: “Just phone a friend Do it,” he claimed publicly.