France faces hurdle in legislative election led by Le Pen’s party | International

The hyperbole is growing ahead of legislative elections in France that begin this Sunday. It’s another sign of nervousness in the face of a call that no one saw coming and which leads France to Uncharted territory. Whether the National Regrouping (RN) wins and a co-population government is formed (with Emmanuel Macron as president and a far-right figure in the prime ministerial position), or whether a deadlock occurs without a clear majority, France will not vote.

The hyperbole is growing ahead of legislative elections in France that begin this Sunday. It’s another sign of nervousness in the face of a call that no one saw coming and which leads France to Uncharted territoryWhether the National Regrouping (RN) wins and a co-population government is formed (with Emmanuel Macron as president and a far-right figure in the prime ministerial position), or whether there is stagnation without a clear majority, France will never be the same again.

Macron called the dissolution of the National Assembly necessary to “clarify” the political situation after Marine Le Pen’s RN won a landslide victory in the European elections on June 9. For Bernard Sananes, director of the Elabe Demographic Institute, the results of the legislative elections, and the country’s future, revolve around one question: “Will the desire for change be stronger than the fear of change?”

Above all, because “change” means, for the first time in French history, that a far-right party could reach government by democratic means after the second round on July 7. The chances are high that it also manages to unite the hitherto deeply divided left parties.

The New Popular Front coalition presents itself as a “dam” for the RN and its candidate, Jordan Bardella, to become France’s next prime minister. But with a voting intention of around 29% of the 49.3 million French people registered to vote, the NFP remains in the polls behind the RN and its allies on 35%, although well ahead of the coalition of Macronist parties, which are on around 19.5%.

“There is a very strong desire for change in the country, which has been captured, first of all, by the RN and, more recently, also by the left,” explains Svananes. “At the moment, the desire for change is stronger than the fear of change.” In this context, “an absolute majority of the RN is not impossible,” he says, although he believes that the “most likely scenario” after the second round on July 7 is a “solid relative majority” of the extreme right.

Bardella says he will only govern if he receives an absolute majority, claiming that only then will he be able to implement his program and not remain a mere “ally” of Macron. But analysts agree that public opinion will not understand that Marine Le Pen’s party would refuse to form a government if for the second time in a month it won a clear victory in the elections and gained more than 250 seats, even if it remained below the 289 required for an absolute majority.

Towards sulphurous coitus

The result could lead to a shared executive between the centrist Macron and the far-right Bardella. Cohabitation is nothing new in France. There were already two during the presidency of socialist François Mitterrand, Jacques Chirac was prime minister between 1986 and 1988 and Edouard Balladur was prime minister between 1993 and 1995. And a third turned the tables: the conservative Chirac as president and the socialist Lionel Jospin as head of government between 1997 and 2002.

If there is anyone who knows the rules of the cohabitation game, it is Jacques Attali. The essayist, adviser and mentor of presidents from Mitterrand to François Hollande and Macron, explains that he not only witnessed the first government of this type, but that he helped “invent” the rules that, for example, leave in the hands of the president international politics and security issues. Rules that have since served to regulate the never smooth relations between the leaders of the opposing parties. The problem is that they are not enshrined in the Constitution, so their compliance depends on the will of the parties. And with an RN that will arrive at the Elysée with a national program and an international outlook totally opposite to that of the pro-European Macron, this cohabitation promises brutal and frequent clashes.

The beating has already begun. Le Pen reminded Macron this week that his position as head of the armed forces is only “honorary” and that the one who has real power is the prime minister, because he controls the budget. Outgoing head of government Gabriel Attal accused the RN of endangering the country’s security by publicly questioning the chain of command.

“The president can say whatever he wants, for example, regarding European policy,” says Attali. “But if the executive reduces, as the RN says it wants to do, the French contribution to the EU, which would case bailey As for the Union, the president cannot stop it. Nor can he stop the possible elimination of aid to Ukraine.

And although Macron will have “counterweights” left, constitutionalist Jean-Philippe Derosier says his capacity to take action will be “very limited”, since he is a “defeated” president to whom the French will have told through the ballot box that although they cannot throw him out of the Elysée, they no longer trust him to govern. “Legally, he does not have many ways to intervene and politically, he will not have the means to impose himself,” he summarizes. Although Macron has given assurances that he will extend his mandate until 2027, the pressure on him to resign in that context will be very strong, experts agree.

Unknown terrain

All in all, the outlook could become more uncertain if no bloc secures a clear majority on July 7. And there is no prospect of a repeat election: the French constitution does not allow a new dissolution of parliament until after a year.

France has never had a government with a technocratic profile like Italy’s and, given the strong confrontation during the campaign and in the last legislature, a coalition of parties like the one between the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals that governs Germany seems unlikely either way. Even the last Macronist executive with a relative majority was unprecedented in the Fifth Republic and, if it survived, it was only due to the fact that other forces failed to ally themselves to push through a censure motion.

Given the uncertainty, the possibility of a “neither-nor” government is also being considered, that is, with neither the extreme right of the RN, nor the radical left of France Insoumise. Would a government with allied centrist forces be possible? “France is the country that invented the left-right divide and that divide is very, very difficult to overcome,” warns Derosier.

Despite the uncertainty in the country, the Fifth Republic organized by General Charles de Gaulle 66 years ago is not in danger, the constitutionalist appeals. “We are facing a political crisis, but not a crisis of governance to the extent that it is questionable whether it will survive,” he assures. Whatever happens in these legislative elections, Derosier says he does not doubt “for a second” that the institutions “will resist.” But everyone recognizes that the times ahead will not be easy.

Follow all international updates Facebook And Xor in Our weekly newsletter,