Fredi9999, a French broker who earned 79 million with Trump and for whom the regulator is analyzing the blocking of Polymarket | Financial markets
Other players outside of American politics and Wall Street benefited from Donald Trump’s re-election. The Republican’s victory was extremely beneficial for an anonymous bettor identified by the Polymarket betting platform (based on the Ethereum blockchain) as a French citizen who bet on 11 accounts in favor of Trump. The anonymous user, operating under the username Fredi9999, invested more than $30 million and received an income of $85 million, about 79 million euros. As a result of this event, the French gambling regulator Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) has launched an investigation into the activities of the betting platform and is analyzing its possible suspension.
The man gave an interview to the publication Wall Street Journal (VSJ). He called himself Theo, and one of the accounts associated with his investment models commented on the Polymarket website this Friday mocking: “Biden can still win.” The bettor told US media that he has extensive experience in financial services and investments, and the volume of his bets indicates that he manages a large asset. His approach to developing predictions was unconventional. It is based on the analysis of surveys using the method neighborhood survey estimatesthat is, surveys that ask people who they think their neighbors will vote for, rather than asking them directly about their own voting intention. According to Teo, this approach is more effective in identifying the true intent of voting, especially in the case of so-called voting. Shy Trump VotersThat is, voters who are embarrassed to admit that they would vote for Trump, in a kind of psychological projective exercise.
Initially, only four accounts were believed to be publicly linked to Fredi9999. Then, according to Bloomberg estimates, the profit was $48 million. It was after the French regulator announced that it would be placed at the center of investigations that the blockchain analysis platform Chain analysisup to 11 accounts were discovered that could be controlled by the same dealer for his way of investing. Bloomberg found that these 11 accounts, created on Polymarket, made a series of small transactions to avoid significant changes in bet prices, allowing him to accumulate a large position without drawing attention to the movements.
However, Theo’s boldest and most lucrative move was not predicting that Donald Trump would win the presidency, which official polls showed was just over 50% likely. He also bet that he would win the popular vote, but many analysts considered this outcome unlikely. He also announced that Trump would win key Great Lakes states. blue wall: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Speaking to the WSJ, Teo said his position was a bet on the accuracy of much of the polling data and concluded that the polls overestimated support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
In emails and a Zoom call with a WSJ reporter, Teo criticized North American opinion polls. But he was especially harsh on polling conducted by traditional media outlets, which he believed were biased toward Democrats and tended to produce wildly different polling results in Harris’ favor. “Everything is different in France! Trust in polls is more important: they want to be as close to the real results as possible. This is a different culture,” he wrote in one of the letters. “Public opinion would be better prepared if recent studies measured the neighbor effect,” he said.
Polymarket, in a magnifying glass
Online gambling is strictly regulated in France. While sports betting and poker are permitted, the operation of any new betting market requires prior approval from the ANJ, according to the government website. “We are aware of this site and are currently investigating its operation and compliance with French gambling laws,” an ANJ spokesperson told Bloomberg on Thursday. Authorities are expected to ban access to Polymarket for French users, a cryptocurrency news outlet reports. Big Whale on Wednesday evening.
Polymarket has already faced regulatory problems in the US. In 2022, the platform was fined by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and banned from operating in the country. Despite this, US traders flocked to the election betting markets, prompting Polymarket to carry out new checks to ensure the platform’s high rollers were located outside the United States. Meanwhile, a September court victory over CFTC rival Kalshi allowed the platform and others like Robinhood Markets to begin offering betting contracts on local elections.
Since Donald Trump was elected president last Wednesday, trading volume and user numbers on the platform have fallen. The biggest bets on the prediction market had a combined volume of $3.6 billion (€3.3 billion) and made up the majority of the activity, disappearing in the blink of an eye as jackpots were paid out to winners. According to Dune Analytics, trading volume on Polymarket fell 84% overnight, and daily active users fell 53% after the election.