Funds aim to absorb dozens of securities | Financial markets

As the battle for Applus heats up, managers are keeping a dozen stocks on their radar that could be the target of possible takeover bids. Developers, Socimis, renewables are the sectors that are the focus of possible acquisition transactions, to which are added small values ​​and undervalued companies after 2023, when the market was almost paralyzed – only the FCC self-absorption materialized – facing a variety of conditions: rising interest rates rates, the threat of recession and soaring inflation.

Some absorptions that could very well have been activated in the heat of the moment…

As the battle for Applus heats up, managers are keeping a dozen stocks on their radar that could be the target of possible takeover bids. Developers, Socimis, renewables are the sectors that are the focus of possible acquisition transactions, to which are added small values ​​and undervalued companies after 2023, when the market was almost paralyzed – only the FCC self-absorption materialized – facing a variety of conditions: rising interest rates rates, the threat of recession and soaring inflation.

Takeover bids that may well be activated in the midst of an open war for control of Applus between Apollo and the consortium formed by I Squared and TDR. At the moment, goose hunting funds are rubbing their hands over the operation, which has now resulted in a doubling of the proposed price and an agreement between Apollo and 11 hedge funds acquire 21.85% of the company’s capital.

Ignacio Cantos, investment director at ATL Capital, admitted last week that it was time to bet on small caps as he said it would not be strange to “see more takeover bid-type corporate transactions in the Spanish market.” . “Applus”. According to the expert, in the coming months there may be proposals for securities that are undervalued and will have an impact on the renewable energy sector. “It will largely depend on the shareholder structure of each company,” he explains.

Adding to the sharp decline in the renewable energy stock market is the strong appeal of a sector that is well viewed by managers, but which is penalized by uncertainty about the future evolution of energy prices and their leverage, and which now contains encouragement in the face of the rate cuts that central banks are seeking postpone. For example, OPDE. Last week, the Council of Ministers gave the green light to a bid by the French fund Antin to take over the company, an operation that is now in the hands of CNMV and which values ​​the energy company at 866 million euros.

Manuel Santillana, partner responsible for mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector, admits that the uncertainty that is weighing on the renewable energy sector has “affected the outlook of listed companies, both those engaged in self-consumption and promoters and Speciologists. The stabilization of these factors will determine the level at which the share price can consolidate after recent high volatility and, as a result, the possibility of a takeover bid being made.”

Thus, Joaquin Robles, an analyst at the company, “which makes it difficult to conduct business operations in this environment.”

Beyond renewables, Javier Fernandez-Galiano, director of financial advisory at Deloitte, believes one of the sectors “that could see change will be real estate. Due to both the shareholder structure of some companies and the evolution of the stock market, at some point during the year we could see a corporate transaction that would affect one of the promoters or SOCIMI in the ongoing market.

Among the possible listed securities, Talgo stands out, whose value in recent years has always been among the securities available for sale, awaiting sale by its main shareholder, the Trilantic venture capital fund, present in the company since 2006. For those already suspicious Regular clients of CAF and Swiss manufacturer Stadler were joined last November by the Hungarian company DJJ, which expressed interest in a takeover offer at €5 per share, which would value the company at €632 million. However, the proposal has not yet been implemented.

Another of the hottest stocks of the past year was Cellnex. Its shares are down 44% from their highs, and although there was speculation about possible interest from American Tower, it went no further.

Among the undervalued companies that funds can focus on, IG Markets experts name Indra, Ebro Foods, Deoleo, Mapfre – despite the fact that the Mapfre Foundation controls 67.7% of its capital – and Reig Jofre. In Indra’s case, IG analyst Sergio Avila estimates the company is trading at a discount of around 26% to its intrinsic theoretical value, which they calculate to be around €22.47. Adding to the company’s undervaluation is the shareholding in which Guipuzcoan group Sapa Placencia has recently been strengthened, while the company is finalizing a new strategic plan that could include the sale of its technology subsidiary Minsait and entry into the capital of Hispasat.

Among food companies, all eyes are on Ebro Foods and Deoleo. In the first case, IG analysts note that it is trading at a discount of about 29% from its value. Since the beginning of the year, the company has lost 3.7% on the stock market. For its part, Deoleo’s major shareholder CVC hired Lazard last year to find an industrial partner in the oil company after ten years of investment. Among the interested parties, packaging company Dcoop would apply, but was unsuccessful.

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