German Social Democrats are debating whether to replace Scholz for the February elections. international

The block united around Olaf Scholz begins to falter. The survey, unfavorable for the German Social Democrats – placing them behind the Christian Democratic and far-right opposition – has fueled debate over whether, after leading a coalition government with the Liberals and the Greens for three years, the chancellor will represent He is the ideal candidate to lead a centre-left party in the next general election.

Olaf Scholz or Boris Pistorius? This is the question which has been hovering in the main political and media circles of the country for many days. Largely, due to the great popularity of the current Defense Minister: according to the latest survey by the polling company Forsa, 66% of Germans see Pistorius as the Social Democratic Party (SPD)’s best candidate for the Chancellery. Only 18% chose Scholz.

Scholz has repeatedly stressed his intention to re-validate the position in the February 23 elections, but has not yet been officially named a candidate. Before presenting any other name, his party colleagues will have to convince the Chancellor himself not to present himself. A movement that would have a certain similarity with what happened last summer in the US Democratic Party, which saw the apparent candidacy of Kamala Harris emerge to try to stop Donald Trump after Joe Biden’s disastrous debate. A goal he did not achieve.

The SPD leadership, in charge of proposing a candidate, “held a regular telephone conference on Tuesday to organize the preliminary election campaign in terms of dates and deadlines.” However, Scholz, who was returning from Brazil, where he attended the G-20 summit, was not there.

meeting on monday

The next meeting of the Social Democratic Executive is scheduled for next Monday, but some sources are already talking about an attempt to nip the debate in the bud. After this, SPD delegates must vote for the nominee at the party congress on 11 January. By then there will be less than a month left for the elections to be held on February 23.

One of his colleagues: The outlook for the Social Democrats is not particularly good after the coalition broke up due to disagreements with the Liberals, especially on economic issues. The reason for their breakdown – and, therefore, for early elections – was the dismissal of Finance Minister and Liberal Party leader, Christian Lindner. If the predictions hold true, the survey will push the Social Democrats into a humiliating third place with about 15% of the vote. On the other hand, Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU, centre-right) will have every chance to reach the Chancellery, which it vacated with the return of Angela Merkel in 2021.

Even if the CDU opted for a grand coalition with the Social Democrats, everything indicates that Scholz would not become a minister in Merz’s possible executive. In all likelihood it will play no role in the future of German social democracy after February 23. “So why not change now, why not try?” The German weekly recently asked der spiegel In an opinion article with an obvious headline: Scholz is the wrong candidate,

Amid this debate, political scientist Wolfgang Schröder recently recalled that neither Scholz nor opposition leader Merz achieved large levels of popularity as acting chancellor. “This means we have no great candidates,” the expert from the University of Kassel told a small meeting with reporters organized by the Foreign Press Association (VAP).

In his opinion, ultimately it is about the combination between the candidate, the program and the party. “The party has to be behind that candidate,” he indicated. “I don’t think the SPD wants to experiment much anymore.”

Not for ‘self-coronation’

The chairmen of the SPD, Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbiel, are still loyal to Scholz. “He is our chancellor and our candidate for chancellor,” Esken announced on public television ARD on Monday. “We would like to introduce ourselves to Olaf Scholz. This is clear. There’s no hesitation,” Klingbeil said. Despite this support and that of others such as Secretary General Matthias Miers, they cannot stop more and more voices from warning that nothing can be taken for granted and that nothing has been decided yet. Rolf Mutzenich, chairman of the SPD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, acknowledged “unrest” among the party’s base. Trust in his leadership has been lost.

In the opinion of former SPD chairman Franz Müntefering, Scholz has no prerogative to run for chancellorship again. “This is not a game over which two or more candidates agree over a night of beer or breakfast or which involves the privilege of re-election,” he told the Berlin newspaper. TagsspiegelThus he reminded that the candidate for the post of Chancellor should be elected by a vote of delegates at the Party Congress.

Philipp Turmer, leader of the German Social Democratic Youth (JusO), also warns that “no self-coronation is possible”. For that, the question remains open. However, the youth faction of the party does not view Scholz or Pistorius favourably: the Defense Minister is also considered too centre-leaning. He also warned that the SPD was facing demobilization of its voters.

Faced with Scholz’s desire to defend his position, the winds are increasingly blowing against him. Some representatives in the Bundestag do not hesitate to speak openly in favor of the candidacy of their Defense Minister. One of them, Joe Weingarten, said in his statement, “I have a clear opinion that we should enter the election campaign with Boris Pistorius.” pseudodeutsche zeitung“He has enthusiasm, closeness to people and the ability to say in clear German what needs to be done. And this is what our country needs now.”

Communication, its weak point

That their problem is reaching the people is well known within the party. “Olaf Scholz is the best chancellor in terms of knowledge, but unfortunately he is not the best communicator,” said Axel Schaefer, another deputy. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,

Wiebke Esder and Dirk Wiese, the two chairmen of the powerful North Rhine-Westphalia regional group in the SPD parliamentary group, acknowledge that Scholz’s chances of re-election are slim. In a statement released on Monday, he clearly distanced himself from the chancellor and mentioned Pistorius as an alternative. “The focus is now on who is in the best position politically for these elections. “We are seeing a lot of support for Boris Pistorius,” said the two presidents of the largest regional group, which has 49 delegates.

For now, Pistorius has maintained his loyalty, but has not completely closed the door to a possible election run. “We have a candidate for chancellor, the current chancellor,” he said on ARD on Sunday, assuming Scholz would be nominated. However, this week he admitted that “in politics you should never rule out anything.” The politician said sarcastically, “The only thing I can definitely rule out is becoming Pope.”

For ARD journalist Georg Schwert, it was a “catastrophic mistake” that the party leadership did not immediately nominate Scholz as a candidate. “Who will vote for the SPD when the SPD itself does not know who it wants to elect as leader? Schwerdt wrote, “Who should have any respect for an SPD that respectfully advertises and disrespectfully damages its own chancellor?” It is an “irony”, he says, that former Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, considered untouchable within his party, is now in charge of reminding that “the party cannot eliminate its own chancellor. “Everyone will be sad, Scholz and Pistorius.”