Germany, a government whose days are numbered and an economic crisis
An unprecedented action was followed by an unprecedented speech by Olaf Scholz. It seems that the German Chancellor said genug (Sufficient). Three years marked by disagreements with its liberal (and minority) partner have ended with the collapse of the first traffic light coalition in this country’s history. After weeks of rumors the situation had reached a point of no return. It was defined this fall as autumn of decisions And the month of November, in particular, when the budget for 2025 was to be resolved as a decisive date.
In that speech the Finance Minister was dismissed after 9 pm on Wednesday night Christian Lindner, Scholz showed a harsh tone towards his former colleague in the executive, his partner in the discord. “He has broken my trust many times (…). Anyone who joins the government must act seriously and responsibly; Must be prepared to make concessions for citizens. But Christian Lindner is not interested in that. At this time. “He cares about his customers, he cares about the short-term survival of his party.” The German Chancellor broadcasted all the words that were previously silent.
After the departure of the liberals, Germany is now ruled by a minority government. In theory, this will happen for a few months; According to a poll conducted by public television ARD, the entire opposition (including the outgoing partner) and about two-thirds of the society want elections, longer than that. celebrated as soon as possibleFor the moment, the timeline initially set by the Chancellor still remains: a confidence vote on January 15 (which will not be overcome due to the lack of a parliamentary majority) and elections in March or, at the latest, in early April. However, this Friday, from Budapest, where he traveled to attend the European Council, Scholz announced for the first time his desire to propose an earlier date for the resolution and, therefore, to debate the elections.
Difficulties of minority government
The political scientist and professor at the University of Berlin explained in an interview with the Cinco Continentes program on Radio National why Olaf Scholz initially stuck to that two-month moratorium when the difficulties of governing as a minority were clear. Free Gunther Maihold: “For Scholz it offers him the possibility of regaining acceptance among citizens (right now the SPD is stuck at 16%), through a less complex policy than has so far been the case with his work as chancellor. Couldn’t perform.” That means he will try this time.If the time limit is maintained– Pursue policies consistent with your social democratic party, without pressure (and obstruction) from a liberal finance minister who advocates “strict fiscal discipline”.
Scholz heads German minority government as next legislative elections loom
But in front of desire, reality prevailsAnd this happens through the executive, which now, without a parliamentary majority, has to wait for opposition parties to support its proposals. Difficult. Christian Democrat leader Friedrich MerzWhose party, the CDU, is the favorite in the elections, insists that the vote of confidence should take place as soon as possible, even setting a date, this Wednesday the 13th, when a meeting of the Chancellor in the Bundestag Government statement is scheduled. ,
“This is a good opportunity for Merz, it is more important for him to take advantage of this moment, he now wants votes to dissolve the parliament, which is not in Scholz’s favour,” says Maihold. So ultimately this recent flexibility shown by the Chancellor to bring forward the elections could be his way of recognizing that his plan to complete pending projects (pensions; asylum policy; aid to industry…) between now and January Not realistic.
unfavorable economic situation
Government forecasts, as well as the country’s leading economic organizations, predict that Germany will head into a new recession in 2024, with its wealth shrinking by 0.2 percent, increasing the need to take measures to boost key sectors. go, work Only a stable government can be imagined“Every month that passes is a lost opportunity for economic recovery,” warns a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin. The automobile industry is one of those sectors.
Europe’s leading carmaker, Volkswagen, is in dire financial straits, including labor strife, but other German brands are not faring much better. to stiff Chinese competition and tariffs imposed by the EU on that country (which Germany opposed) Now another derivative has been added: election results in America. The shadow of protectionism has grown longer with Donald Trump’s landslide victory. European leaders, including Olaf Scholz, are stressing the importance of maintaining good relations with the incoming President of the United States these days. Although here, in fact, Trump has the last word.
Indeed, in that unprecedented speech against Lindner on ‘D-Day’, the day the coalition broke down, the Chancellor referred to the consequences on the other side of the Atlantic: “Especially today, a day After an important event like US electionsSuch selfishness is completely beyond comprehension. But besides economic, we can also talk about other impacts, such as political. Coincidence or not, as soon as news of Trump’s victory became known, talks about forming a government in the state of Saxony were sparked by the decision of Sahra Wagenknecht, the leader of the party bearing his name. This populist and pro-Russian formation, and important in the negotiations to be able to keep the extreme right in line, is against arms shipments to Ukraine, among other things, and with the new tenant of the White House, perhaps now some It was not necessary to agree to the terms.
To make matters worse, one of the people closest to Donald Trump, controversial billionaire Elon Musk, doesn’t have much sympathy for Olaf Scholz. After learning of the German government’s crackdown, he wrote (in German) on his X account, the platform he owns (also Tesla, which has the largest factory in Europe in this country), “olaf is a nerd” (“Olaf is an idiot”). “The world we live in, Internet companies are not organs of the stateThat’s why I hadn’t even heard about it,” the Chancellor replied, asked about it during a press conference in Budapest this Friday. At least the satirical ability of the head of the German executive cannot be denied. No matter what the winds blow.