Government bond yields rise. 3-year BTP positive for the first time since 2020. The S&P agency: “It depends on the ECB”

Small signs from the markets. The rate is positive again of the 3-year BTP, first time since October 2020. The Treasury has placed the three-year bonds today, snatching a yield of 0.14%, up from the – 0.10% of the previous auction. The coupons of the 7-year BTP passing by 0.6% to 0.89%. A total of titles were sold 7 billion euros, the maximum amount fixed, in the face of an application that has exceeded i 10 billion. The amount of interest on a government bond is determined on the basis of demand at the time when the Ministry of the Treasury presents itself on the market. If the demands are very high, it is State manages to sell its bonds even if it pays little, nothing or even asks for money (whoever buys will receive at the expiry of the security a lower amount than that initially invested). An apparently absurd investment choice. Who buys at negative rates he can still bet on the increase in the value of the stock and then resell it before expiry, earning it. Or in the case of deflationary scenarios (decline in consumer prices), a decrease in the value of the security can in any case translate into a gain in real terms.

It is understandable that in a phase of rise in inflation like the current one, investors are only willing to buy for higher yields. Consistent choice also in relation to the orientations of the large central banks which are moving towards monetary tightening and therefore a rise in interest rates. Moves that immediately affect the bond yield with short deadlines. It may be that some apprehension also affects them on the evolution of the Italian political situation a few weeks after the official start of the match for the appointment of the new President of the Republic. In the last few days a few “Tear” of the spread there was. The difference in yield between an Italian ten-year government bond and the German bund equivalent has been revised these days quota 140. In some instances this has happened as part of a wider gap between the bonds of Southern European countriesto and those of the more solid Northern states. At other times the dynamics seemed more directly attributable to some nervousness about Italy.

But the rating agency throws water on the fire Standard & Poor’s. “I don’t see a big increase in the spread ahead of the presidential elections in Italy, I think the differential will stay more or less at current levels,” the chief economist for Europe said today. Sylvain Broyer. Among the priorities for Italy, Broyer indicated that of “not jeopardizing the current strong confidence of businesses and households“, A theme linked to the political situation. But “our basic assumption is that there is not a great incentive to go to early elections, we are quite confident in a situation of continuity ”. According to the economist, the widening of the spread seen since last October is mostly due to the expectations of a downsizing of purchases of securities by the European Central Bank

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