How much would the peso be against the dollar, if it falls 20% as Moody’s estimates? – The financial

The peso could suffer an “imminent” depreciation of 20 percent against the dollaras estimated by the Moody’s Analytics agency.

The rating agency projected a “significant depreciation correction in the coming months”, based on a model that replicates the monetary and financial conditions of the last two global crises, that of 2009 and 2020.

“The monetary tightening underway in the United States could trigger a exchange correction like the one that happened during the previous cycle of raising rates by the Federal Reserve and that began at the end of 2015. Under this condition, the depreciation of the Mexican peso seems imminent”, he considered.

This Friday the Mexican currency presented an appreciation of 0.22 percent or 4.47 cents, with respect to its previous closing. The exchange rate hovers around 20.0136 pesos per dollar, according to figures from Bloomberg.

In bank window, dollar it is sold at 20.52 pesos per greenback, according to data from Citibanamex.

This is how the peso would be against the dollar

If we take Banxico’s last close, which was 20.0583 pesos per dollar, the peso would have to rise around 24.10 to present a depreciation of 20.15 percent.

CI Banco analysts mentioned that “in a session without major economic references, the concern about potential aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed and its impact on the economy dominate investor sentiment.

“The statements made by Federal Reserve officials in recent weeks have stressed the debt market, where the yield on sovereign bonds continues to rise. We expect that the rest of the day the exchange rate could fluctuate between 20.03 and 20.20 spot”, the specialists added.

The dollar index (dxy), which measures the strength of the US currency against a basket made up of six currencies, shows an increase of 0.47 percent to a level of 113.42 points.

With information from EFE and Valeria López.

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