IAG, Colonial, Arcelor, Amadeus and Aena doubled Ibex profits in September | Financial markets

Stock markets managed to beat statistics pointing to September as the worst month for stocks, especially in the US. Lower rates and a slew of incentives to revive the Chinese economy have helped them overcome altitude sickness and free up profits. While the S&P 500 hit its 42nd record for the year, the Spanish stock market has surpassed its 2015 ceiling of 11,866.4 and is heading toward levels it hasn’t seen since 2009. With one day left in the month, the It index gained 4.96%, which would be its best September since 2013, although it was the least up among the eurozone’s major indexes.

Although the gains have been summarized, ten values ​​avoid euphoria, and five double or even triple the growth of sample indicators for the month. With an increase of 17.18%, IAG receives the gold medal. Good tourism data, falling crude oil prices, the abandonment of the Air Europa acquisition and the prospect of increased shareholder remuneration supported the airline, which already distributed €0.03 in the form of its first coupon on September 9 after five years of drought. JP Morgan, which views the European airline sector as an attractive option to hold in its portfolio, selects the Spanish-British holding company as one of its preferred options. Improved estimates in recent weeks keep IAG on the list with zero sell advice, with Bloomberg consensus still seeing upside of 11.4% to €2.83 per share.

Together with the airline, two other representatives of the travel sector double the profits of Ibex 35. Amadeus gains 10.11% and Aena is up 10%. Since May, the tourism sector technology services provider has benefited from a lack of procurement consultation. 53.6% of value watchers recommend buying Amadeus shares, while the remaining 46.4% prefer to keep it in their portfolio. Bankinter’s analytical department includes the listed company in its average model portfolio. “Amadeus’s performance is on track for a positive recovery, which will lead to a recovery to pre-pandemic levels,” they highlight. Experts note that the company has a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 1.1 times.

On Friday, coinciding with Tourism Day, Aena shares exceeded the 200 euro barrier and reached maximum levels. Although it will be overvalued by 22.5% in 2024, it will still reach 208.66 euros, according to analyst consensus compiled by Bloomberg. 54.8% advise buying the company’s shares. This group includes Bank of America analysts, who recently raised their estimate to 225 euros from the previous 210. “Aena’s traffic recovery is outpacing the traffic recovery of major European nodes. We forecast traffic growth of 5% in 2025, up from the previous 3.5%,” they highlight.

The new rate scenario will also provide a boost to real estate, one of the sectors hit hardest by aggressive rate hikes. Colonial shares, which are just two steps away from turning positive for the year, accumulated an 11.19% overvaluation in September. For months, analysts have pointed out that the punishment suffered by the Spanish firm is exaggerated, and in recent weeks they have revised estimates upward. While Morgan Stanley withdraws its underweight recommendation and raises its estimate from five to six euros per share, Jefferies analysts rate the stock a buy and estimate potential returns of 11%, to seven euros. Bankinter’s research department emphasizes that the REIT has the highest quality office portfolio in Spain.

Measures taken to revive the Chinese economy are helping industrial metals recover. AcerlorMittal manages to join this trend and with an increase of 10.76% it becomes the third best performing company on the stock exchange. Analysts at Bak of America see China’s fiscal stimulus, which could reach $560 billion, as an opportunity to invest in key resources. “Undervalued commodities such as industrial metals are the most attractive option for accelerating portfolio rotation,” the American bank said.

The list of values ​​that doubled stock market gains in September was completed by Amadeus (10.1%) and Aena (10%), two other representatives of the tourism sector.

For their part, although their values ​​have not increased the most, the fact that they are the two most capitalized and most influential firms on the Spanish stock market is enough for the behavior of Iberdrola and Inditex to become a key factor for selective execution. This month, both firms experienced a happy moment, setting records. Shares in Inditex, the first Spanish listed company to break the 150 billion capitalization barrier, rose 8.86%. Bank of America’s improved recommendation sent its shares up 0.19% to €53.32 on Friday. The research department of the American bank resumes coverage of the textile group and advises buying shares. “We expect Inditex’s business model to continue to deliver growth at 2-3 times the market,” the analysts wrote in their latest report. This optimism is reflected in the target price of 61 euros per share, the highest estimate from analysts who follow this price. Based on current prices, this means the potential rate would be 14%.

Failures

Puig, which has become accustomed to doing well since listing, is the worst performing stock (-18.7%) and the listed company that has lost the most points on the stock market (16). The listed company’s early results have accelerated downward revisions to estimates, with Bloomberg’s consensus price target rising from 29.4 euros in early September to the current 28.15.

Among the values ​​that are slipping from profit are Rovi and Repsol. The improvement in estimates was not enough for the pharmaceutical company to shake off its losses, and it fell 9.24% for the month. The company continues to post weak results in the first six months of the year and expects the sale of its third-party manufacturing business to be completed. The fall in crude oil prices weighed on Repsol, which lost 5.62% to break the €12 per share barrier. Adding to the weak macroeconomic outlook in recent hours is news that Saudi Arabia is exploring the possibility of increasing crude oil production to stem the loss of market share. Before Riyadh’s intentions became known, UBS had already questioned Repsol’s ability to comply with its shareholder reward policy, which combines dividends and share buybacks.