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Invest 91L continues to move west-northwest without achieving cyclonic development

Investe 91L, the tropical wave that is located east of the Lesser Antilles, continues its movement to the west-northwest over Atlantic waters without reaching depression or tropical storm strength, reported this morning the National Hurricane Center (NHC, in English).

The meteorological agency maintained its estimate of the probability of the disturbance to develop cyclonically in the next two days at 60% (medium level), while it also left its estimate at 80% in the next five days.

“Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive to cyclonic development, any further intensification of this system in the coming days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.”explained the NHC in its latest tropical Atlantic outlook.

The agency’s analysis and forecast became reserved for this system, since there is still no consensus among global models regarding the cyclogenesis of the disturbance. Cyclogenesis is the term that defines the moment when an atmospheric system forms into a cyclone.

If it became a tropical depression, it would be the sixth depression of the hurricane season.

GOES-East satellite image showing cloud extent from Invest 91L.  Taken on the morning of September 1, 2022.
GOES-East satellite image showing cloud extent from Invest 91L. Taken on the morning of September 1, 2022. (CIRA/NOAA)

The NHC refers to “marginal” environmental conditions, because Invest 91L is surrounded by mostly dry air and particulate dust from the Sahara, elements that prevent air particles around thunderstorms from becoming more humid and condensing to create large thunderstorm areas.

Regardless of his future, the National Weather Service (SNM) in San Juan stated that the disturbance is still projected to pass to the north of the region.

“It is still expected to stay to the northeast of us. However, for the weekend that could bring rain in the interior and north, with an increase in humidity. It will be an indirect effect of the system as it passes to the northeast”explained the meteorologist Cecilia Villanueva via telephone.

“Another indirect impact may be a storm surge, depending on how far it passes from us. There may be a tidal surge in waters offshore of Puerto Rico and that is what we are monitoring,” he added.

The expert recommended that the population keep an eye on the bulletins and reports produced by this tropical wave, especially those that outline changes in its trajectory, strengthening and indirect impacts on the region.

“It is possible that the maritime conditions in the waters and coasts of the north and east of the islands could be dangerous, so we must remain vigilant,” Villanueva said.

“If it develops, those types of systems tend to take a trajectory a little further north. But if it doesn’t develop, it could be a little closer to our environment, and then the moisture field could be affecting us. There is still uncertainty at that stage of system development.”he explained.

For now, the long-term forecast considers a low to moderate potential for rain for the interior and north of the island this weekend. Between Saturday and Sunday there will be enough humidity for the development of rains and the winds, due to the passage of the tropical wave, will turn from the south, so it will be the areas to the north where the precipitation would develop.

“The problem is that the winds will continue to blow lightly and that is the most we have to be attentive to, because with light winds the accumulation of rain will be greater,” said Villanueva.

The next weather outlook with details and changes to Invest 91L will air at 2:00 pm this Thursday.

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