Israel, Hamas and Qatar undercut Biden’s optimism about imminent ceasefire agreement

US President Joe Biden’s enormous optimism about an imminent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip has not been shared by Israel and the Islamist group Hamas, while their conversation continues Indirect under Egyptian-Qatari-American mediation.

“My national security adviser tells me we’re close. It’s not done yet, but we’re close. I hope we have a ceasefire by next Monday“Biden was taken by surprise on both sides and Qatar threw cold water on the forecast, even colder than the ice cream the president was holding in his hand. It was interpreted more as a wish Making rational predictions based on what happens on the war front and the negotiating table.

The belief in the field is that the agreement A ceasefire of at least 40 days is more possible than ever, but not within the deadline announced by Biden. While Hamas warns that “significant differences” remain and accuses Israel of not definitively ending its offensive, Israeli sources leaked reports after a Paris summit held Friday with the US, Egypt and Qatar. The significant optimism that has taken place has been reduced. Furthermore, he condemned that “the terrorist group does not give up its stubborn demands.” “There are still many obstacles,” an Israeli source told CNN.

Biden’s consistent statements on the war demonstrate his personal commitment and his presidential willingness – translated into increased pressure – to allow a ceasefire to be achieved in a devastating war. Release of 134 kidnapped peopleSome of them are also with American nationality, and after a nearly five-month military campaign, it eased the dramatic humanitarian crisis faced by Gazans, including the threat of famine.

An offensive that can extend to its terrestrial aspect in a very sensitive area and time. Rafa and Ramzan are two key words On the negotiating table. Like both sides in the war, which turned 144 days this Tuesday, Biden wants a ceasefire before the start of Ramadan on March 10 or 11.

The holiest month for Muslims is a special spiritual, community and family event that Gaza hopes to celebrate without airstrikes or fighting. Ramadan is usually a time when tensions rise around mosques’ esplanades in Jerusalem or the Temple Mount, as well as Palestinian attacks on Israel.

“Ramadan is approaching and the Israelis have made an agreement that they will not carry out (military) activities during Ramadan.” Give us time to get all the hostages outBiden made the announcement on NBC, in which he warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “if this incredibly conservative government continues like this, and Ben-Gvir (far-right leader) and others… they all support We are going to lose, and it is not in Israel’s interest.

“A poll released this Tuesday shows that 82% of Americans support Israel,” the Israeli leader replied with a statement in a video whose title reflected the tension: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Joe Responded to Biden”.

rapha operation

The second major issue cited by the arbitrators that has raised concerns and also urgency of an agreement has been announced Ground operation in Rafah, Israel has confirmed that it will enter the area near the Egyptian border to destroy the last Hamas battalions, but will postpone the incursion until a ceasefire that will free the militias’ hands.

Biden is leading international pressure to avoid operations in the region where more than half of the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million residents live a poor life. A few days earlier and secretly, the head of the Israeli army and internal security service had visited Cairo to discuss with his Egyptian counterparts the evacuation plans of civilians from Rafah, most of whom had been displaced, a Before taking action which is a matter of great concern. Arab Countries.

Qatar hopes to reach an agreement before Ramadan and avoid the offensive in Rafah, but does not believe that will be possible next Monday, as Biden has suggested. Foreign affairs spokesman Majid bin Mohammed al Ansari responded, “There is no news of hostage exchange talks and a ceasefire in Gaza,” although he was optimistic as “negotiations continue at various levels.” To reduce differences, the Israeli delegation remains in Doha.

negotiation terms

The leaks that emerge from the Israeli cabinet (sometimes of very different colors and interests depending on the source), from the Hamas leadership and from the mediator troika (USA, Egypt and Qatar) are A powerful psychological tool in negotiation, with implications for war. But it also serves to outline a roadmap for what will be the first phase of a ceasefire. it will be about 40 days of ceasefire in which hamas 40 will free the Israelites That he had kidnapped in the October 7 attack. According to a document revealed by Channel 13, it will contain 15 people over the age of 50, 13 sick people, 12 women (7 who should have been released in the November ceasefire) and 5 soldiers.

in return, Israel to release 400 Palestinian prisoners A ceasefire ratio of 10 prisoners and one day for every kidnapped person released. As told to the Reuters agency, this is a proposal that Hamas continues to study. The exact number and identity of the 400 Palestinian prisoners to be released must be agreed by the parties, although according to Channel 13 the mediation document establishes that 15 are “heavyweights” serving life sentences for serious attacks.

The Israeli military would also have to move its troops away from the most populated areas in the Gaza Strip, halt its aerial reconnaissance and intelligence missions conducted by drones for eight hours a day and allow the gradual withdrawal of displaced civilians from northern Gaza. Have to give. Other than this, humanitarian aid Gaza Strip will increase 500 trucks per day And according to Reuters, the rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries will be allowed.

Hamas is insisting on its main demand: an Israeli commitment to end the massive offensive launched after the 7-0 offensive – and not just suspend. Israel refused because, it alleges, it would mean failing to achieve the stated objective of completely eliminating the Islamic group’s military and control capabilities in Palestinian territory.