Keys to the primaries in New Hampshire

New Hampshire primaries are known for their unpredictability and the independence of voters unaffiliated with any ideology. However, the result they delivered this Tuesday is very familiar: Donald Trump against Joe Biden.

After months of intense campaigning in the state, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley finished in second place. With a double-digit lead over his main rival, Trump has won his second decisive victory after last week’s Iowa Republican caucuses.

In the Democratic primaries in this state, Joe Biden’s name was not on the ballot because the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had decided that it would start holding primaries in early February. And with South Carolina. But New Hampshire decided to hold a Democratic primary anyway, and Biden won easily as a write-in candidate (an election practice in which a voter writes in their candidate’s name by hand when it is not on the ballot. ), even though the DNC has already stated that no delegates will be allowed based on the outcome of the primary.

The dynamics of the primaries in New Hampshire, the second vote of the 2024 election season, generate many considerations to keep in mind ahead of the presidential elections in November.

1. The independent vote failed to oust Trump, but it remains a cause for unease for Republicans

New Hampshire is known for the importance of its independent voters, who make up 40% of the electorate. A group that has been decisive for many presidential candidates in previous elections to reach the top or at least maintain their chances. Haley was confident that her message of exercising restraint and presenting herself as a young, fresh face, an antidote to both Trump and Biden, would resonate with Republican-leaning independent voters.

Those voters could not give him victory, but their support for Haley could become a problem for Trump in the future. According to NBC News exit polls, 73% of Republican primary voters who described themselves as moderates voted for Haley.

If Trump wants to defeat Biden in November, he will have to convince some moderate Republicans to vote for him. Given the good results Haley has enjoyed among them, the former President faces the task of earning their support.

2. Haley remains strong despite two crushing defeats

Despite a third-place finish in Iowa and a two-point loss in New Hampshire, Haley insists on moving forward with the Republican primary. On Tuesday night and in front of supporters in New Hampshire, he expressed optimism about his home state of South Carolina, where the Republican primary will be held on Feb. 24. “There’s still a long way to go before this race is over, there are dozens of states ahead and next up is my beautiful state of South Carolina,” he said.

But in South Carolina, polls show Haley trailing far behind Trump, so it’s unclear how her state could reverse the basic dynamics of the Republican primaries.

3. Biden avoided an embarrassing result (with the help of his followers and his campaign spokespeople)

The peculiar circumstances of the Democratic primary meant that Biden’s name was not on the ballot. Yes, Democratic candidates Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson came forward. The fear was that Biden’s decision not to run in New Hampshire would open the way for candidates like Phillips, who are trying to appear more electable than the current president.

Biden won thanks to a campaign that his most loyal supporters led to get voters to hand-write his name on the ballot. His campaign spokespeople also helped him, such as California Congressman Ro Khanna, who traveled to New Hampshire over the weekend.

4. It seems both Republicans and Democrats are already focusing on the November presidential elections

New Hampshire is further evidence that the November 2024 presidential election is indeed going to be a repeat of the Biden vs. Trump battle. There were indications from both political parties on Tuesday that they are already thinking about what will happen after the primaries.

“As we work toward November 2024, one thing is becoming clear,” Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said Tuesday. “Donald Trump is headed straight to the general election with the only person who has beaten him in the election: Joe Biden.”

On the Republican side, more and more legislators are behind Trump. Allies of the former president are calling on Haley to withdraw from the primaries so the party can focus on defeating Biden in November. “It’s time for unity, it’s time to fight back against the Democrats and it’s time for Nikki Haley to retire,” Taylor Budovich, executive director of Make America Great Again Inc., a super PAC that financed Trump’s campaign, said Tuesday. Is.”

5. Trump’s lies about the elections in New Hampshire have not spread as much as in Iowa.

During the Iowa Republican caucuses, a clear majority of voters said they believed Trump had won the 2020 presidential election (despite all evidence supporting the legitimacy of Biden’s victory). In New Hampshire, both early exit polls and interviews showed a split between Republicans who believe lies about widespread voter fraud and those who do not.

“I have to say that January 6 was absolutely disgusting to me,” he said. Guardian Patricia Hemenway, Haley voter.

However, during his victory speech on Tuesday, Trump once again relied on a big lie. “We won in 2016, and if you actually remember, if you want to play fair, we won in 2020 as well,” he said. “We did much better in 2020 than we did in 2016.”

Francisco de Zarate’s translation