Le Pen’s far-right won the first round of French legislative elections without achieving an absolute majority | International

France, the cradle of human rights and the European idea of ​​enlightenment, has a week to decide whether to keep the Eurosceptic and nationalist extreme right in power, or if it stops its unstoppable rise with an odd coalition that stretches from the radical left to the moderate right. Then it is the choice the French face…

France, the cradle of human rights and the idea of ​​Europe of enlightenment, has a week to decide whether to keep the Eurosceptic and nationalist far right in power, or if it halts its unstoppable rise with an odd coalition that stretches from the radical left to the moderate right. This is the choice facing France after Marine Le Pen’s National Regroupment (RN) won a landslide victory in the first round of legislative elections.

This eurosceptic and nationalist party had never won a legislative election in the country that, together with Germany, has been the driving force of the European Union since its inception. Pushed into a corner of the ideologically stricken masses for decades, the Lepenistas never occupied the central place they occupy in society today.

Yes, parties in Le Pen’s ideological sphere had won elections and governed in other parts of Europe and in the United States. But France, where the extreme right has come a long way toward normalization since the 1980s, resisted. No more?

Despite its extraordinary success in these legislative elections, the RN has little assurance. With more than a third of the votes in the first round, it is the favorite to become the first parliamentary power after the second round on July 7. But it is not clear whether it has enough deputies to appoint a prime minister and form a government.

First estimates for the second round put this at a few dozen seats short of the absolute majority threshold of 289. The options are three: an absolute majority for the RN; a grand alternative coalition of moderates and leftists; or the risk of a parliamentary blockade and misrule.

After these elections, the left has emerged as the main bloc against the RN. The structures linked to Macron, dominant in the National Assembly since 2017, remain in third place, losing all the power accumulated over the years, and being the biggest victims of the president’s decision.

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This Monday, another campaign begins in France, a second round in which France will face, as President Emmanuel Macron wanted when he surprisingly called legislative elections three weeks ago, a “moment of clarification.” Is it time to allow this party, which garners millions of votes election after election, access to government and which is able to connect and explain the deep malaise in society? Or will the battered Republican Front, the coalition that cornered the extreme right, be reborn to stop it again? touch can you do it?

Everything will be decided in the next five days of the campaign, a sprint This will determine whether France, and with it Europe, takes a turn. A union of parties opposing the RN could curb the ambitions of this formation and prevent Le Pen’s right hand man and his candidate for the post of Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella, from leading the next French government.

These elections, called unexpectedly by Macron and with almost 70% participation, the highest since 1981, have had a seismic effect in France. For the first time, a party with xenophobic and anti-Semitic far-right roots has won a legislative election, although under the leadership of Marine Le Pen it has shed its skin and abandoned its most aggressive edges.

According to estimates by the IFOP Institute for the TF1 network at the end of the election, the RN received 34.2% of the vote, almost double its result in the last legislative elections two years ago. In second place was the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, with 29.1%, three points more than in 2022.

The Macronist Ensemble (Together) candidacy would be in third place with 21.5%, almost three points less than the last legislative one. The Republicans, a traditional right-wing party allied to the Spanish PP, would get 10%.

Macron called for “a great clearly democratic and republican union” before the RN in a written statement published on the closing of schools. Left leaders, from eurosceptic and anti-capitalist to pro-European, called for unity behind candidates who have the best chance of defeating the extreme right in a second round.

“Democracy has spoken,” Le Pen declared. “Now we need an absolute majority so that in eight days Emmanuel Macron can appoint Jordan Bardella as prime minister.”

The legislative elections in France are actually simultaneous elections to elect 577 representatives in 577 constituencies. The two people who have the most votes in the first round are not classified for the second round, as in presidential elections, but rather the candidates who exceed 12.5% ​​​​of the total number of people registered on the voter list in the first round are classified.

Participation is close to 70%

A turnout of close to 70% means there will be dozens of constituencies where three candidates will face off in the second round. This is called a triangular contest.

Participation in the first round of the last legislative elections was 47.5%. So there were only 8 districts with triangular elections. According to some estimates, there could be about 300 on July 7.

Tripartites spread the vote, which could facilitate the election of RN candidates who start out with a lead. But, if the lowest-voted candidates withdraw to concentrate the vote against the extreme right, Le Pen’s candidates could have difficulty achieving an absolute majority.

Hence the importance of Macron’s quick statement calling for a front against the extreme right. It remains to be seen how this will be realised and who is included in the concept of “democrats and republicans”.

Some Macronists have indicated they would withdraw their candidate if the New Popular Front candidate was more socialist, environmentalist or even communist than the RN. But not if he belonged to the more radical La Francia Insumisa of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the dominant left-wing coalition.

In the next few hours it will become clear whether the so-called Republican Front has really been revived. In any case, French politics has entered a new phase, following the undeniable electoral success of the Ultra party.

Everything collapsed in a matter of days. These have been three of the most intense weeks in French politics in recent times, since on the night of June 9, Macron surprisingly announced the dissolution of the National Assembly, where the parties supporting him were in the majority, and called for legislative elections to be held. The decision, taken in response to the electoral defeat of the Macronists in the European elections and the victory of the extreme right, triggered a chain reaction in the parties. The Macronists, bewildered and in many cases irritated by their leader’s decision, launched a desperate campaign hiding Macron in posters. The traditional right of Los Républicains (LR) collapsed when its president, Eric Ciotti, sided with Le Pen’s RN. Against all odds, the heterogeneous French left achieved an agreement to present single candidates and a common program.

The campaign has opened a new chapter in the reshaping of the French partisan landscape, which began with the emergence of Macron in 2017. From here comes a France with three factions: a broad nationalist and Eurosceptic right; a strong left that aspires to become at least the main opposition force; and a small central bloc. Macronism may have signed its death certificate tonight.

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