Life expectancy will increase by almost five years in 2050
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, published in The Lancet, predicts that global life expectancy will increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050. As confirmed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent research organization at the University of Washington (USA), This represents an increase of 4.5 years.
In particular, it will increase 4.9 years for men And 4.2 years for women between 2022 and 2050.
This trend has been developed thanks to public health measures What survival rates have improved from illnesses cardiovascular diseases, Covid-19 and various pathologies transmitted, maternal, neonatal and nutritious (CMNN).
Global healthy life expectancy (HALE) is average number of years what a man can count on life With good health.
To reach these conclusions, life expectancy was measured. from 2022 to 2050For 204 countries and territories.
The study predicted cause-specific mortality. In addition, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs or years of healthy life lost due to poor health and premature death).
Global growth
Expected that increases be more in countries where life expectancy is lower. This will contribute increase compliance life expectancy in all regions.
Chris MurrayProfessor of Health Metrics at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), noted that “in addition to increases in overall life expectancy, we found that differences in life expectancy between geographic regions will decrease“.
According to Murray, this is an indication that although inequalities in healthcare between the highest and lowest income regions will remainspaces are being reduced and they are waiting further increase in that Sub-Saharan.
Burden of Disease
Research shows that change current under the burden of illness To non-communicable diseases (NCDs)how can they be cardiovascular pathologiesHe cancer, wave diabetesthey will have greater effect under load Next generation.
The same thing will happen with impact associated risk factors to NIH. For example, obesity, high blood pressuresuboptimal diet or smoking.
The burden of disease is directed towards NCDs, and years of life lost (AND LLA years lived with disability (YALD).
Therefore it is expected that more people live longernose more years of poor health. These findings are based on the results of the GBD 2021 risk factors study, also published in The Lancet.
Murray notes that greatest opportunity to speed up load reduction world incidence through political intervention, which are intended for prevent and mitigate risk factors metabolic and behavioral.
Possible life expectancy scenarios
They were presented various scenarios alternatives compare possible results health If various interventions healthcare can eliminate the impact various groups risk factors key for 2050.
It was expected that there would be large differences in total load DALY between different alternative scenarios, and they wanted to see which one had the biggest impact in general life expectancy data and DALY projections.
Stein Emil Volseth, The study’s first author, who heads the GBD collaborating unit at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, explained that “worldwide effects predicted stronger for the stage “Reducing behavioral and metabolic risks‘”.
This scenario is Load reduction by 13.3% incidence (number of DALYs) in 2050 compared to “Reference” scenarioWhat most likely.
The authors also conductedtwo more scenarios: one focused on safer environment and one more in one better child nutrition and vaccinations.
Amanda E. SmithDeputy Director for Forecasting at IHME, notes that “while the largest impact on global DALY burden was observed in the Improved Metabolic and Behavioral Risk scenario,” We also predict a decrease in the burden of disease V stages “A safer environment‘ And “Improving nutrition and vaccination of children” “.
In addition to the reference forecast that the researchers had, this demonstrates need for constant progress and resources in these areas. Smith claims that “there is potential to accelerate progress until 2050”.
“We have a huge opportunity ahead of us. influence the future global health Staying ahead of these growing risk factors metabolic and dietary disorders, especially those associated with behavioral and lifestyle factors such as high blood sugar, high body mass index and high blood pressure,” concludes Dr. Murray.