New study questions Hunga Tonga volcano’s role in global warming in 2023-2024
A new study by a collaborative team including Texas A&M University atmospheric scientist Dr. K. Andrew Desslerexplores Climate Impact of Hunga Tonga Volcano Eruption in 2022 And challenge existing assumptions about their impact on the process.
Underwater volcanic explosion could impact global warming in 2023-2024: new study
A wonderful event two days that occurred in mid-January 2022, released large amounts of volcanic aerosols and water vapor into the atmosphere.Historically, large volcanic eruptions such as Tambora in 1815 and Pinatubo in 1991 have had a significant cooling effect on the global climate by blocking sunlight with their aerosols.
The Hunga Tonga eruption represented a unique scenario: being an underwater volcano, it released an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, increasing the total water content of the stratosphere by about 10%.
Because the Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas.Dessler says there was The initial suggestion was that this could explain the extreme global warming in 2023 and 2024.. Instead, the team’s findings, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphereshow the opposite: the eruption actually contributed to the cooling of the Earthas well as other major volcanic events.
The cooling effect of a volcanic eruption
Team article titled in Spanish “Evolution of climate impacts during the two years following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption.” includes information and analysis by Dessler, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University and director of the Texas Climate Research Center; the first author is Dr. Mark Schoeberlchief scientist at the Virginia Tech Science and Technology Corporation in Hamburg, Virginia; and several scientists from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
His methodology was analyze observations of aerosols and water vaporamong other variables measured by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite. to estimate the energy balance of the Earth’s climate systemTheir analysis showed that The eruption caused more energy to leave the climate system than entered it, causing a slight cooling effect..
“Our article debunks the explanation that the eruption caused the abnormal heat of 2023 and 2024.— Dessler explained.Instead, we should focus primarily on human-generated greenhouse gases as the main cause of warming, which will be greatly helped by the current El Niño phenomenon.“.
Implications and future research
The study has important implications for both scientists and the public, Dessler said. By ruling out the volcanic eruption as the main driver of recent warming, The team’s research supports their argument that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver of climate change.This approach is particularly relevant given the ongoing debate and misinformation about the causes of global warming.
Additionally, Schoeberl says the study highlights the importance of continued investment in satellite stratospheric measurements.
“Our knowledge of the Hunga Tonga eruption is largely due to investments in stratospheric satellite measurements by NOAA and NASA over the past two decades.— added Shoberl.However, we must be careful about the possibility of a “stratospheric data desert” as some of the most important instruments are not being replaced.“.
New questions that remain unclear
While the paper answers several important questions, Dessler acknowledges that it also raises new ones. For example, the researchers highlighted some unresolved issues surrounding the Hunga Tonga eruption, such as unexpectedly low sulfur dioxide levels caused by such a strong eruption and minimal impact of eruption on ozone hole in 2023.
The 2023 ozone hole represents a significant thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica, allowing more harmful ultraviolet radiation to reach the Earth’s surface. In addition, stability of water vapor in the stratosphere goes beyond what models predict, suggests there is still much to learn stratospheric circulation processes.
While scientists work to address ongoing questions and deepen our understanding of the stratosphere, the team’s work highlights the urgent need for continued research and accurate data to address climate change, Schoeberl said.
Link
M. R. Schoeberl et al., Evolution of climate forcings during the two years following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041296