Revolution in Ireland will have to wait: Left’s split unites two historic parties. international

Ireland is determined to refute the poetry of its most universal poet, WB Yeats and his work, second turnWhat political scientists across half the world have been quoting for a long time: “Everything is falling apart. The center will not survive.”

Exit poll shared by public radio and television RTÉ and the newspaper Irish TimesThe first results of the slow vote counting, which will probably last until early Monday, strongly indicate that the two historic parties that represent the center of Irish politics, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will be able to repeat the coalition and that Will continue to rule.

But they oppose under the guise of a mirage. The total between them is barely 40%. 20 years ago this figure was closer to 80%. According to the survey, it is much more likely that the party that receives the most popular vote – although its percentages are similar to those of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael respectively – is Sinn Féin, which has been the political wing of the terrorist organization for decades. Ira. This happened four years ago, and it came as a complete surprise. Although now, as then, everything indicates that it will be of no use. The change in his image impresses many youth. Not so much for those who comb gray hair.

“Very few people now know where Sinn Féin comes from, and it’s good that it remains that way. But I remember. Phil Sheehan recalls, “My husband was a police officer and he was involved in the famous IRA escape from Portlaoise prison, and that was terrifying.”

Nothing could be further from the idea of ​​building a political revolution than a botanical garden on a Saturday morning. Also that of Dublin in the north of the city. Sheehan and his current partner, Brian O’Connell, are retired civil servants – “in their 70s,” he says, without wishing to be precise – and they walk hand in hand among the magnolia trees. “When people talk about poverty, they don’t know exactly what they are talking about. The sadness was of the fifties, not of now. I want Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to continue to govern for at least four more years. “The economic programs of the left parties seem to me very far from reality,” says Brian. “If they have to govern, do it in four or eight years, when you and I will no longer be here,” she jokes.

a fractured change majority

Sinn Féin itself resigned to remain in opposition. Neither of the two major parties, nor many of the smaller parties, want to hear about a coalition with the IRA’s successors.

The paradox is that Sinn Féin and the rest of the left formations combined represent almost half the electorate. New formations such as the Labor Party, the Social Democrats or AUNTU are confident of a good result.

This does not happen with the Greens. His participation in the government coalition of the last four years has had a great impact on him. There is even a danger of their disappearance.

With a parliament of 174 members, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – which in the best of cases could have closer to 80 representatives – need a partner. And all eyes are on Labor and the Social Democrats.

“They are elections of continuity and change. There is a clear structural change in Irish politics, Aidan Regan, professor of political science at University College Dublin, tells RTÉ. “But with such a fractured left, it cannot be ruled out that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will maintain their coalition government for many years.”

despair of youth

The information from the RTÉ poll was not limited to just the percentage of support received by each party. It provided more data. For example, the difference in votes between youth and adults. And the generation gap is quite relevant.

If the botanical garden is a haven of mature and conservative tranquility, youthful restlessness can be sought among the works of contemporary art. Daniel Elliot, 33, looks at a photograph a local artist took last year of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou Macdonald. It hangs with other characters – the first legally recognized trans woman in Ireland, or the young man in her room who represents an entire generation’s desperation for accommodation – all of whom are housed in the National Gallery of Ireland. The portraits are displayed around the room.

-Did you vote for him?

“No not at all. She doesn’t convince me, but I find the ideas defended by Sinn Féin attractive. Although I have voted more for the left than for the social democrats,” he admits.

housing shortage

Elliott works in the Student Advice and Accommodation department at University College Dublin. He knows very well how desperate many young people are to get a home in a city where prices are skyrocketing due to the invasion of big technology companies like Google, Meta or Apple.

“At least Sinn Féin has a somewhat credible housing proposal. But Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael bother me, because they represent Establishment And I don’t believe his promises. “They are driven by big landowners who want to make more money,” he says.

“The housing crisis is common in all Western countries, but here it is particularly acute, because of the huge increase in population that we experience every year,” Gail McElroy, professor of politics at Trinity College, Dublin, tells EL Pace. “Even if they build houses, they can’t do it at the pace of demand.”

Revolution in Ireland will have to wait. The slow and complex vote counting process will take the entire weekend. Possibly more. And no one expects surprises. Thousands of fans descended on the Aviva Stadium in Dublin to watch the rugby match between Ireland and Australia this Saturday. “We are an old, Catholic, slow nation and not used to change. Nobody believes that new parties can change things, and besides, we have already hit too many balances so that nothing can be changed,” says Peter Turner.

He has come to the capital from County Killaloe with his wife Annemarie to watch the match. “Did you know there are Northern Ireland players in the national team? That’s why we sing two national anthems, and you won’t see the national flag, green, white and orange, in the stadium,” says Peter. “This being Ireland, some things are best left untouched,” he suggests.