Tensions in the oil market due to Israeli retaliation against Iran
Tensions in the Middle East have shifted to the oil market due to possible Israeli retaliation against Iran following its missile attack on its territory due to the Jewish army’s invasion of Lebanon. The focus now is on the scale of the response and the possible target.. The United States has blocked Israel from attacking nuclear facilities in Iran, but that is not the only critical issue: the destruction or blockade of its nuclear facilities. oil or hydrocarbon infrastructure This could put the Iranian economy under control and affect the international market.
In the event of a large-scale attack, “the price of oil will skyrocket and inflation will recover. In addition, this will allow Russian oil to rise in price, which will also be an undesirable derivative instrument,” he explained in an interview. With Hour 1, Enrique AyalaAnalyst at the Alternatives Foundation, reserve brigadier general.
Oil price ‘more volatile’ amid escalation between Israel and Iran
While infrastructure such as airports, port facilities or command and control facilities can have a big impact on a country, an attack on the economy “will have a profound impact” on the civilian population, “who will see that they will be the ones who have the most to lose in a war “, which will affect “the Ayatollah’s regime from the inside,” adds, in turn, a retired army lieutenant general: Francisco Gan Pampolson the channel 24 hours.
So far there are only forecasts, but the consequences are already being felt. This Thursday oil prices rose by more than 5%. The price of a barrel of Brent, the benchmark in Europe, was quoted at $76 in the afternoon. The increase was particularly noticeable from September 27 and continued from October 2, the day after the Iranian attack. In the United States, Wall Street closed in the red, with Texas intermediate crude rising 5.15% to close at $73.71 a barrel.
“(Oil) is the most volatile asset in a hypothetical escalation scenario,” he said. Gustavo Martinezfinancial analyst, Economy in 24 hours. “It’s growing, and it’s normal that it continues to grow because of the potential conflicts in the area,” he adds.
A possible Israeli attack on Iranian oil structures could send the price of a barrel soaring
Hormuz, oil export route
It is assumed that Iran has the capacity to refine about 2.41 million barrels per day.which would place the country among the world’s top 10 oil producers, despite sanctions imposed on the product by the United States and the European Union for its nuclear activities since 2012.
Regarding the situation with these infrastructures, it is necessary to distinguish between “objects offshorethose that are near the coast, those that are on the continental territory,” said Gan Pampols. Arabia. Terrestrial ones, those located on the continental territory, will affect their production and the possibility of export,” he continues.
If you look at the map of Iran, Many of these refineries are located on the coast. as is the case with Star in the Gulf, one of its main operations, producing about 420,000 barrels per day. Also the Bandar Abbas (330,000 barrels per day) or Lawan (60,000 barrels) fields. Among those producing the least are Kermanshah (22,000 barrels per day), Aras 1 (3,000 barrels per day) and Yazd (3,000 barrels per day).
Some experts point to other vulnerable targets. “This could be an attack on Jhark or Khark Island, a small island in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s largest oil export terminal,” Ayala says.
These points also play an important geo-economic role, since they are The Persian Gulf is a key export route oil and gas to other neighboring countries. The narrowest section is Hormuz.south of the coast of Iran. In April, Iran seized a British oil tanker that it accused of having “ties” to Israel. It was seen as a possible response to an attack carried out by Tel Aviv a few days earlier on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which killed several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two senior commanders.
“Countries that don’t produce will be hit the hardest,” says Gun Pampols. Among the largest recipients of Iranian oil are territories such as Syria or Türkiye, but also China, India, South Korea or Europe itself. Conflict in the area could also hamper trade and the movement of goods out of Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which surround the Persian Gulf. As for the United States, “they are self-sufficient in terms of energy,” says Gan Pampols, but he notes that even so, “they are not interested in destabilizing the world economy,” as that would ultimately affect it. Also.
“Countries that do not produce will suffer the most“
According to Gustavo Martinez, in addition to the damage to the crude oil trade, The “danger” is rising prices for derivative products. “Iran and its fields represent an important part of the world’s daily barrel supply and therefore sharp price increases are normal. The danger is that oil could lead to potential inflation spikes that would delay monetary easing efforts. central banks and that this could ultimately impact markets,” he explains.
Tehran and Isfahan with oil refineries and nuclear infrastructure.
If Israel ignores American warnings, there will be uranium mines among the nuclear facilities off the Iranian coast. Gchin, which provide materials to the structures of the province of Isfahan. Further west of Hormuz there is a power station. Bushehr 1with a capacity of 915 MW, as well as Bushehr 2 and Bushehr 3, It is assumed that they are not yet active, but in the future their capacity could exceed 2000 and 1000 MW, respectively.
Deep into Iran, the infrastructure of Iran’s major cities stands out. Tehran —north—Esfahan —center— and Arak —west— because they have both oil refineries and nuclear facilities, according to the World Nuclear Association, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Threat Initiative. nuclear (WNA, IAEA, NTI respectively) collected by RTVE data.
Refineries in Tehran and Arak each produce about 250,000 barrels, in addition to hosting nuclear research centers. On the other hand, the Isfahan refinery produces 360,000 barrels per day and has a nuclear technology center that boasts uranium enrichment and four small reactors.
Iran will respond by attacking Israel’s energy and gas infrastructure.
Another unknown – When might such Israeli retaliation occur?. “He is waiting for a clearer opportunity. In addition to continuing to attract global attention, he is honing in on intelligence issues. He always does this, he does not strike without being absolutely sure that the goal he is pursuing will be achieved, despite the collateral damage. “Gan Pampols predicts about Israel.
According to Ayala, Tel Aviv is measuring the size because if there is an attack that is not as “moderate” as the United States or Iran itself expects, it could lead to the former withdrawing its support on the issue or Tehran will also continue to bomb. This will trigger a “spiral of violence” between both countries, adds Ayala, who believes that while the situation is currently “dire”, it could be “even worse” in the area, as is already being seen in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. if tensions continue.
In the event of an attack, Iran announced this Friday that will respond to Israel by damaging its energy infrastructure and gas facilities, Iranian news agency SNN reports, citing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deputy Ali Fadavi. “If the invaders – as Iran calls Israel – make such a mistake, we will attack all their energy sources, facilities, as well as all oil refineries and gas fields,” Fadavi said.
Israel’s ‘very harsh’ response to Iran could trigger ‘spiral of violence’